chat

The days after October 7th, Israel announced its genocidal intent. From Herzog, Netanyahu, to the cabinet of ministers, the Knesset, Israeli media and Israeli luminaries/society.

Israel taught the US and the world that it could just rule through fraud and act with impunity. The masses mobilize to protest but do not stay on the ground in such a degree to actually force a rescindment of support or policy change. They don't do much economic resistance or sabotage; taking to the streets is now ignored and managed and liberal democracies can delay and obfuscate responsibility indefinitely.

Genocide, brazen, transparent and open in deed and intent was not enough to evoke significant reaction or organize the masses to pressure governments to change course.

The ruling class believes that it can rule as it wishes, through fraud, violence, and decree, and it is because political activists, organizers, socialists & communists, don't really confront power as it did ages ago.

Maybe Palantir works as an anti-communist panopticon and we just death spiral forever.

It runs in physical infrastructure that is too difficult for them to build, too expensive for them to operate, and too fragile for them to protect.

No there is something there, public is too disgusted by it all even if they can't fully explain why yet. Venezuela reminded people too much of Iraq and the fact they are just doing things and trying to justify it after the fact means media is trying to keep up and failing. I was thinking of something like facism burn out or immediately trying to set the pot into boiling instead of gradually turning up the heat.

ICE has been openly kidnapping minorities for nearly a year, and yet you do not see any meaningful resistance to stop them, including from the so-called leftist organizations.

The US openly supports genocide, bombs Iran, kidnaps Venezuelan president, and yet you do not see the other world powers come together to stop them. (The most you can argue is maybe Russia against NATO expansion in Ukraine, but even that was a situation forced upon Russia, who would otherwise be happy to let the status quo persists).

So, no, the empire did not overplay its hands. The empire is free to do so because there is no organized left, not domestically, nor internationally, to stop them. It is pure cope to believe there will be some kind of divine justice against the empire. They are not scared, they are emboldened.

The materialist answer is much simpler: unlike in the past century when there were strong labor movements and international solidarity, today neoliberalism rules the world and every country is more interested in taking advantage for their own gains than to come together as a cohesive force against Western imperialism.

All the pretense about social democracy, civil rights and upholding international laws were relics of the past when Western capitalism had to compete against the Soviet Union. It simply took some years for these institutions to become fully eroded after the 1990s. In other words, the collapse of the Soviet Union and its consequences.

They've been playing Jenga since the 70s, this is definitely the endgame. Just remember the scale of the timeline, the "endgame" could last 10+ years, as much as is slamming the table. In the end, the tower will fall and they will lose (that doesn't mean we will win, necessarily, but they will 100% lose eventually)

Warning: vibes based analysis

I wholeheartedly believe, and will continue to believe until I am presented evidence to the contrary, that the trump people fully expected either their inauguration, or any of the actions they’ve taken in the past year, to have resulted in 2020-style mass rioting that would allow them to go fully mask off. Showing that they fundamentally misunderstood why those protests and riots occurred and just in general the state of the American left. But that just…hasn’t happened, so now they’re at a loss since they really do have this mass fascist project they’d like to implement but they have no real enemy to position themselves against. So while they are completely unopposed in implementing their goals, they have no popular support, they are bleeding all but their most ardent supporters, essentially destroying the coalition that got them back in power in 2024. They’re locked in this contradiction where they can do anything they want unopposed, but everything they do turns around and damages their support. And they’ve tried to cast various laughable groups as the enemies of western civilization. No kings protests, which everyone can see is just a bunch of milquetoast liberals. They tried to act like the dude who shot Charlie Kirk was part of some grand left wing anti-American conspiracy which even the libs could see through. Every enemy they’ve tried to create is varying degrees of laughable, and they keep trying to poke the left and provoke mass rioting again, seemingly not realizing the American left has been on life support for at least 40-something years.

Sort of disappointing on our part tbh but I’m with you, they do seem to be overplaying their hand both domestically and geopolitically.

Maybe Palantir works

they've pretty notoriously not worked. like their whole business model for over a decade now has been grifting the guvmint for a bunch of bunk ETL products, and I don't think the advent of slop generation has made them more effective.

I think Palantir (or something similar) is how the feds+local pigs death squaded that guy 100 miles north of portland a week after he shot a fash while defending another protester, but on the whole I don't think it's the specter that people are making it out to be in the last couple years. That's just buying their marketing.

They are in the decline and falling apart. But that is why things are so bad and they are lashing out so. An animal is most dangerous when it is wounded and cornered. And if they were secure in their power and position they wouldn't feel the need to openly flex and demonstrate their power.

At the risk of engaging in sectarianism and poorly quoting a half remembered Trotsky analysis, this reminds me of how wrong Trotsky was in diagnosing fascism. To my memory, his analysis was that fascism is not dangerous and can be ignored because it is unstable and doesn't have a coherent class basis. Not understanding that because it is unstable that fascism is dangerous and that not having a coherent base that is contradictory means that it needs to target an external enemy to maintain unity in opposition. Even if the Nazis could have won WW2, they would have ripped themselves apart and decayed in peace time without Judeo-Bolshevism.

I don't think Europe ever actually goes to war against the US. US could annex Greenland and Canada and EU leaders would only issue strongly-worded letters. Most that happens is they try to onshore all armaments production. The idea that the US is actually going Germany 1939 mode won't be entertained unless the US starts launching annexations of the UK or European mainland. USians won't care. It isn't as though if the dems regain power they'll un-annex the territory.

For domestic stuff idk. I went through 2020 like the rest of you. We are in an awful spot with the dems, who can very effectively channel & dissipate revolutionary sentiment. Median lib accepts the Biden years as a failure but views the Obama years as a great success. Although the left is broadly more organized overall compared to then, and most have probably recovered from Gaza encampment burnout. I don't know if any dem out there actually has the spine to sic state-level law enforcement against the feds, which would be a moment of rupture. Dems are freaks who have wanted to be "in politics" since fifth grade. Could one of them pull a wild stunt on the calculus that people would back them? It totally goes against the sort of incrementalist institutionalist personality cultivated by the party.

fascism is capitalism's antibody reaction to the rise of socialism. this is an auto-immune disorder firing off. fascism deploying itself too early because of conditions.

fascism v neoliberalism, which is nonsensical because neoliberalism was used experimentally first integrated with a fascist government, and was "successful"

so i think instead we get get the inverse, due to both timing, material conditions, and a unifying human desire to fight back against potential extinction

socialism, a new synthesis that's still in infancy, will be the new antibody

It absolutely feels that way. But the issue is that the greatest military power the world has ever seen is under fascist control. 35 percent of that countries people support it. That is a large number. Assuming the rest are against it, you need action within that country. From those people. From what I have seen from American liberals and leftists, that wont happen. All I have seen so far is “WE WILL GET EM IN THE MID TERMS.”

With a government operating this way, that wont do jack shit. Especially with what the democrats DO when they have increased levels of power, which is nothing at best, and enabling at worst.

To those of us in the rest of the world, this seems like an uncertain and terrifying situation that ends in either fascist takeovers of our countries, or war. And there are a few countries throughout the world with fascist or puppet governments that seem to be willing to SUPPORT the US in this. Like I hope you’re right, but the optimism of “this is so crazy it’ll have to just stop” doesn’t seem realistic or helpful to me. We need preparation and action. I know what I’m doing for preparing for whats coming. I know what I’m doing to stop it where I am. Do you?

It is not naïve. We are very arguably living capitalism's last few decades right now. If you look at graphs of the rates of profits over time, it's pretty clear that it will tend toward 0 sometime between 2040 and 2060. And as you might know if you have at least a surface level understanding of the labor theory of value and the tendency for the rates of profit to fall, it is not something capitalists can do anything about for it is caused the very way capitalism function at its most fundamental level.

Much like slave society reached its peak during the Roman empire's "glory days" before declining until its collapse, so has capitalism reached its peak during capitalism's best decades last century and has been on the decline since.

All the basic infrastructure that has been utterly crumbling in the same capitalist nations that used to build Empire state buildings and Eiffel towers, all the de-industrialization sweeping through the same countries that caused and lived through the first industrial revolution and invented the assembly line, all the hipped up stage conferences where obscenely rich peoples promise incredible new technology that ends up never seeing the light of day that passes for innovation these days. All of that are signs of decline, signs that capitalism as a mode of production has run its course and has nowhere left to go, signs that the rates of profits are getting so close to the critical point that the very AI driven automation the ruling class are currently drooling at the thought of is all but guarantied to become the sword that slay the beast.

The capitalist ruling class is trying to find a way out of this doom, wildly throwing anything they have at the wall hoping something anything will stick. But there is no way out, there is nothing that can stick. nothing they do can save them, no damage they cause will ever be enough. At best, and with a lot of luck, they may be able to delay the inevitable for a bit, but not for long enough. They are the ant trying in vain to climb back out of the antlion's hole, oblivion waiting jaws wide open for them at the bottom.

The beast is dying, that is the undeniable truth. The poison of the profit motive in its veins is crippling it. Already the imperial core is increasingly incapable of producing the weapons and machines of war that have been keeping it alive and dominant through force. And the weapons they can produce are all affected by various level of 'enshitification' caused by that very profit motive.

As imperialism exports the worst of capitalism's contradictions out of the imperial core to the global south, it will make socialist revolution in the global south more and more likely as time passes while the imperial core will only get weaker and weaker, and when the 21st century's first socialist revolution finally happen at long last, it is unlikely the US, let alone the rest of the imperial core, will be in a position to do anything substantial about it. And once revolution has swiped through enough of the exploited nations? It will be the end. The definitive, irreversible end of capitalism as the dominant mode of production on Earth. With nowhere left to export the contradictions of their economic system, no more influx of cheap stolen resources, and no new markets to expend in, whatever remains of the capitalist world will shrivel, rot and burn. The remaining capitalists will be witness to the destruction of everything they striven for, they will see their wealth burn, their influence crumble and their assets be taken from them or destroyed. And a justly deserved end will soon be theirs at last.

No, I do think you're right.

there is a palpable anger brewing in the basement

For what it's worth I've never heard so much unhappy murmur about the state of things in my life and seen so many move lefter faster than now. Might be cope, but I'm seeing this in people who are still techically relatively well off. It's like the bougies are going so ghoulish and ripping the wires of the walls so fast that it's become something even the libs can't unsee.

I've been thinking about the fragility of it all a lot, feels like at least the start of something.

Nazi Germany seemed invincible as well. The collapse is coming, there are to many economic time bombs.

They're stripping masks where masks wouldn't be advised to be stripped.

That's the best way to put it. My feelings exactly

It does feel that way, doesn't it?

i dont know. maybe there's a vibe shift in america, maybe they're posting more about the genocide now. but the fascist internationale couldn't be more elated, they're high on their own supply but they keep winning, small victories, all over the world, one after the other and they just keep climbing. Where's ours?

The US is overextended and is trying to remedy this by simultaneously retreating from frontiers and consolidating its backyard. This is how the US is simultaneously being pushed out of Africa while tightening its grip in Latin America. The US can't hold onto both Africa and Latin America in its current state, so it makes the unfortunately wise decision of letting go of Africa while tightening its grip of Latin America. You can see a similar dynamic between East Asia and West Asia. Of course, this is only a strategic retreat. The US still has ambitions of global hegemony. Like all weakened entity, it will rebuild itself and bid its time until the opportune time to strike back.

In the end, true global-scale power comes from a foundation of competent organized human effort. That requires lots and lots of valuable things like actual inter-personal trust between people, a confidence in government, a drive for knowledge and learning, widespread literacy, the ability to make useful spreadsheets... you know, those countless "soft wussy things" that the Hard Men of this moment don't value. On every front, people in power in the USA are working tirelessly to tear down the foundational human ability of it's people.

What's interesting about the recent Venezuelan kidnapping operation is that we see on full display the value of multi-spectrum cultivation of human capability. The US military has a strong esprit-du-corps and a culture of desk jockeys and nerds doing support work, combined with political will and physical capital, that allows it to do shit. But even it is being dragged down by the industrial collapse, unable to modernize or re-arm (the US's inability to match Russia's artillery shell output is one damning data point).

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will, and so on. I, however, do believe that societies of control, as brutal as they can get, hold within them the contradictions that lead to overconfidence and blind spots. If the digital world becomes a panopticon, people will find a way to circumvent it. Information will never be a solved problem.

I really need to get offline and pick up some Gramsci again.

I feel similar to early 2022 when russia invaded ukraine and it wasn't going well and I was defending the anti-nato position and winning nothing for it. Then it turned out that in the long run russia ended up doing alright and a couple of years in the anti-nato position is easier to defend.

And in the grand scheme of things I can see how trump's venezuela play and a move on greenland might weaken the US in the long term, the problem for me and what I really really really worry is Cuba falling, that's just something I'm very emotionally attached to and I don't want to see happen, but if Venezuela stops sending oil to the island and there are protests I can see things escalating towards trump making another move

Part of me agrees. Last year I'm pretty sure I made a joke in some comment here on hexbear that i'm becoming an accelerationist because I think the US invading Greenland might be the only thing that finally makes other countries stand up against them. I am very much not convinced of that anymore.

To your post though, you're right. Like the drifter says at the end of Disco Elysium. Capital has to take its mask off do the deed. Playing their hand as it is shows their real face to more. I guess. I'm trying to tell myself that. Trying to not give in to despair and its fucking hard right now, i'm legitimately at one of the lowest points of my life here

They are exercising direct power because they have to. We aren't because we can't, yet (though if we had to I think the right might be surprised at the level of support we have in places they don't expect.)

But direct action weakens the party using it and has to be used carefully. Plenty of empires have used it sparingly and saved themselves. Plenty of Revolutionaries have used it and cast themselves into nothing. I don't think the US can use it well enough at this point, they're already too weak. All it will take is a field loss, or Europe (let's face it, the French, they're the ones with the nukes.) to directly face them and escalate all the way, and the whole thing will fall apart.

China would prefer another decade of the international order. Not because they aren't communists but because they like to be sure of victory, and there's a certain laziness of will stemming from the aftermath of the GPCR. They're unlikely to get that and they will, eventually, be forced to act, dragged kicking and screaming into the head of the new Eastern Bloc.

That required invention of space program and 30 years of fighting in spain, and they’ve had more decency and fire than americans.

You have to fight profit which gives corporations power, if you find opportunity to fuck american or american company out of profit, you better take it. I can’t get over that panopticon center of ai: facebook, google, microslop are all consumers self fucking themselves, cause they can’t imagine not having treats

https://tankie.tube/w/sNaBFZt3rKRABM8oz4fUFq

I feel the same

I'm not optimistic. Since Trump first mentioned Greenland my intuition is that no one will stop it. I would not be surprised if young folks that scoffed at Trump's proposal end up taking land claims in Greenland, USA 5 years from now.

I don't see a scared empire. I see an emboldened one that is looking in the mirror and noticing it's wardrobe the last few decades is now out of fashion. I don't see desperation at all. I see a new trend setting. Modernity is not a prison for fascism and it will no longer imprison this empire. The ruling class doesn't need to play a perfect hand.

There is too great a desire to emasculate fascism and it is fruitless. ICE and DHS are dangerous. They aren't "larping." Their equipment is deadly regardless of if someone thinks it is embarrassing. People can only lash out with "eh they don't look so tough." This is all I hear when people try to say the empire is magically crumbling and I find it to be an expression of weakness above all.

I’m with you on this feeling. I think it’s rooted in my surety that these people are arrogant beyond belief. They cannot be that arrogant and act with calculated patience every time. They will overplay here, there, now and again, and with greater frequency and intensity as contradictions rise and the overplays begin to augment or further the contradictions.

These clowns will be crashing this clown car. Question will be when.