https://x.com/ContraPoints/status/2045587069716582646

but seriously, look up photopea

Source (Mastodon)

"This initiative welcomes any solution that will solve the problem of video games being destroyed on this scale. We want this to be as easy and practical as possible for all parties involved and are very open to how that is achieved. We are not even asking publishers to change their business or monetisation models, only that once they end support, they do so in a responsible way. Our only goal is to prohibit this destructive practice and thus obtain basic protections for consumers and the medium as a whole," Scott concluded.

Under the act, women in Ohio would be at risk for arrest any time they wear a bikini swimsuit, halter top, or T-shirt without a bra.

Archived copies of the article

• Web.archive.org
• Ghostarchive.org

There is a bit of audience talk while I set up, i had to hit record before playing. It was fun. If you're clever you can figure out what my speaking voice sounds like.

Transcript

Stalin : In my opinion there are two seats of war danger. The first is in the Far East, in the zone of Japan. I have in mind the numerous statements made by Japanese military men containing threats against other powers. The second seat is in the zone of Germany. It is hard to say which is the most menacing, but both exist and are active. Compared with these two principal seats of war danger, the Italian-Abyssinian war is an episode. At present, the Far Eastern seat of danger reveals the greatest activity. However, the centre of this danger may shift to Europe. This is indicated, for example, by the interview which Herr Hitler recently gave to a French newspaper. In this interview Hitler seems to have tried to say peaceful things, but he sprinkled his "peacefulness" so plentifully with threats against both France and the Soviet Union that nothing remained of his "peacefulness." You see, even when Herr Hitler wants to speak of peace he cannot avoid uttering threats. This is symptomatic.

Howard : What situation or condition, in your opinion, furnishes the chief war menace today?

Stalin : Capitalism.

https://archive.ph/dfIe9

My post here laid it out: the US needed a pretext to declare force majeure on COMEX silver deliveries; attacking Iran over a weekend (Friday OPEX) provided that cover. The silver physical delivery pressure was screaming for a reset, and a war in the Strait of Hormuz gave them the perfect external shock to suspend contract fulfillment without admitting the dollar is weak or the exchange is insolvent.

And it is still NOT doing well.

Now look at what is happening with oil.

The April 21 options expiration is the key. May 2026 WTI crude futures and options expire on April 21, 2026. The US‑Iran ceasefire is also set to expire on April 21 (OPEX is on the 21st EST, ceasefire is on the 22nd IRST). That is not a coincidence. The US has been trying to tank the futures market by selling contracts into the rollover period; they want to pin prices lower ahead of the May contract expiry. But Iran is letting them do it.

Iran is waiting for the rollover to fuck up the US plan. The US (most likely the treasury itself or other proxies) have placed massive bearish bets. The idea is to drive oil down once the Strait of Hormuz "reopens." But Iran controls the strait; they can flip the switch at any moment. By waiting until after the rollover, Iran forces the US to hold short positions into a delivery period where physical barrels are not available. When Iran then "closes" the strait again (or kinetic warfare escalates when Israel breaks the ceasefire), the short squeeze will be brutal. The US will be forced to buy back contracts at any price, and the paper game unravels.

Iran is posting bullish statements before market hours for a reason (some have been accusing the Iranian government and the IRGC as being at odds with one another, this is not the case). They want to lure the US into selling more cheap contracts, letting the shorts pile up. Every time Iran says "the strait is open" or "negotiations are progressing", the US adds to its short position. Then, when the rollover is locked in, Iran reverses course. That is exactly what happened on April 17: Iran announced the strait was open, oil tumbled 9%, and then the next day Iran "closed" it again after the US continued its blockade. The US got trapped.

Kinetic warfare cannot be shrugged off. The 1970s oil shock took 7 years to recover from; the physical damage to infrastructure, shipping lanes, and refining capacity does not just disappear. Pricing models will start pricing in longer periods of low oil supply, and that is when the real pain begins. Europe/etc have months of supply, but if they know the strait will be closed for 6 months, 12 months, 18 months? Rations will start immediately so they don't run out in ~June and the price of oil be >$200. The strait could go back to 100% fully normal capacity TOMORROW, and we would not avoid this supply shock. It will take (at minimum) MONTHS to "restart" the strait when all is said and done.

• AI is like the 00 crash (Massive overvaluations into massive leverage)
• Oil is like the 70s crash
• PC/PE Stress (Private Credit / Private Equity) is like the 08 crash
• Iran War is like the 2021 crash (ignore it and it'll go away? Right?...)

But AI is much worse than the dotcom crash (>3x the leverage than in 99), this supply shock makes the 70s look like a game (roughly 3x more of a supply disruption), PC/PE makes 08 look like childs' play, and this insane 12 day run during a war makes covid look like a joke.

This is genuinely THE largest bull trap for the markets the world has ever seen. If/when the United States fails to fuck with the futures markets, first the markets, and then the actual economy are going to crumble.

nice little pizza night :) was fun

bike ride up there the wind was right in my face the whole time! worked up a good sweat. always love it though I can be riding through heavy rain and you'll see a smile on my face.

love y'all and remember to brush your teeth

It can help to shift from long-range certainty-seeking to values-based navigation. Instead of asking, “Will this matter in 50 years?” try asking, “What matters to me now, and how can I build a life that honors that?” This is a core insight from acceptance-based approaches to anxiety. When we loosen our grip on specific outcomes and orient ourselves toward what we value, we can become more resilient and sustain our motivation. Values travel with us, and they’re what allow us to keep pivoting as circumstances change.