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submitted 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) by jordanlund@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

I'm putting this up early since it's likely I won't have time tomorrow.

Monday, 1/15, is the date of the Iowa Caucus, please direct all comments, links, and replies involving that here!

Edit - 5:36 PM Pacific, 7:36 PM Iowa time, 8:36 PM Eastern - MSNBC declares Trump the winner (shock!)

8:23 PM Pacific, 10:23 PM Iowa time, 11:23 PM Eastern. MSNBC declares Desantis #2, Haley #3.

90% reporting:
Trump - 51% - 52,912
Desantis - 21.3% - 22,140
Haley - 19% - 19,762

Edit Next Up - 1/23 - New Hampshire Primary!

For those unaware, a caucus is totally unlike a primary.

In a primary election, you show up to a polling place, you cast your ballot for your chosen candidate, the ballots get counted, and whoever wins is whoever wins. On to the next state!

A caucus is far, far more chaotic.

https://apnews.com/article/how-iowa-caucus-works-2024-democrats-republicans-592ab40b9b9b948c0540f2cf132bab5c

"The Republican caucuses will convene statewide at 7 p.m. local time (8 p.m. EST), and begin with the election of a caucus chair and secretary. Only registered Republicans may participate in the caucuses and only in their designated home precincts. However, Iowans may register or change their party affiliation on caucus day. Voters must turn 18 by the November general election in order to participate."

"There is no walking around the caucus room to form candidate preference groups. That voting method was a feature of Democratic caucuses from 1972 to 2020 but is no longer in use by either party in 2024."

"The binding presidential vote functions essentially like a party-run primary, only with very limited polling hours and no accommodation for absentee voting, except for a tiny handful of overseas and military voters. There are speeches on behalf of various candidates before the voting and a variety of party business after the vote. Individual caucus chairs are allowed to exercise some discretion in how to conduct the vote, but the voting is done by secret ballot and there is no set list of candidates. Voters must be given the option to vote for any candidate they choose. In the past, some caucus sites have pre-printed the names of major candidates and provided a write-in option, but typically, voters vote by writing the name of a candidate on a blank slip of paper."

The "limited polling hours" is key here, because if you decide to step out for a smoke, or to hit the bathroom, or grab a sandwich when the vote is called, you might not get counted at all.

In previous years this has led to accusations of under-counts, over-counts, and all other manner of shenanigans.

Here's the history of the past few Iowa Caucuses and how it related to the general election:

2016:
Ted Cruz - 8 Delegates, 51,666 votes
Donald Trump - 7 / 45,429
Marco Rubio - 7 / 43,228
Ben Carson - 3 / 17,394
Rand Paul - 1 / 8,481
Jeb Bush - 1 / 5,238
Carly Fiorina - 1 / 3,485
John Kasich - 1 / 3,474
Mike Huckabee - 1 / 3,345

2020:
Donald Trump - 39 Delegates, 31,421 votes
Bill Weld - 1 / 425

Sources:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses

General Elections:

2016:
Trump/Pence - 800,983
Clinton/Kaine - 653,669

2020:
Trump/Pence - 897,672
Biden/Harris - 759,061

Sources:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa

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submitted 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) by YoBuckStopsHere@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world
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submitted 6 hours ago by jeffw@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world
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submitted 10 hours ago by DevCat@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

(May 23, 2024 / JNS) - Germany will detain Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if the International Criminal Court issues an arrest warrant against him, a German government spokesman said Wednesday.

Asked by reporters in Berlin if Germany would execute an ICC warrant against Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Steffen Hebestreit, a spokesman for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, said, “Of course. Yes, we abide by the law,” Politico reported.

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A Polling Risk for Trump (www.nytimes.com)

The polls have shown Donald Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there’s a sign his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks: His lead is built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote.

Disengaged voters on the periphery of the electorate are driving the polling results — and the story line — about the election.

Archive

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submitted 6 hours ago by jeffw@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world
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The nation’s third-largest state has shed its swing-state profile and is now the home base of Donald Trump’s Republican Party

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submitted 16 hours ago by silence7@slrpnk.net to c/politics@lemmy.world

a generation of young Republican staff members appears to be developing terminal white nationalist brain. And they will staff the next Republican administration.

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submitted 21 hours ago by silence7@slrpnk.net to c/politics@lemmy.world

This was a key thing he did which made it psychologically possible to launch a coup attempt on Jan. 6, so doubling down on it now suggests that he's going to attempt something like it if he loses.

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Reeves wrote that it was “difficult to see qualified immunity’s creation as anything other than a backlash to the civil rights movement,” given the historical context. “The justices took a law meant to protect freed people exercising their federal rights in Southern states after the Civil War, then flipped its meaning,” he noted. “In creating qualified immunity, the high court protected the Southern officials still violating those federal rights 100 years after the war ended. Southern trees bear strange fruit, indeed.”

Archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20240524114328/https://newrepublic.com/article/181825/federal-judge-just-called-supreme-court

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Move over, Disney. Florida has a new boogeyman.

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Legislation just signed into law has made it exceedingly to difficult to track private jet activity.

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