this post was submitted on 08 Jan 2026
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ICE has been openly kidnapping minorities for nearly a year, and yet you do not see any meaningful resistance to stop them, including from the so-called leftist organizations.
The US openly supports genocide, bombs Iran, kidnaps Venezuelan president, and yet you do not see the other world powers come together to stop them. (The most you can argue is maybe Russia against NATO expansion in Ukraine, but even that was a situation forced upon Russia, who would otherwise be happy to let the status quo persists).
So, no, the empire did not overplay its hands. The empire is free to do so because there is no organized left, not domestically, nor internationally, to stop them. It is pure cope to believe there will be some kind of divine justice against the empire. They are not scared, they are emboldened.
The materialist answer is much simpler: unlike in the past century when there were strong labor movements and international solidarity, today neoliberalism rules the world and every country is more interested in taking advantage for their own gains than to come together as a cohesive force against Western imperialism.
All the pretense about social democracy, civil rights and upholding international laws were relics of the past when Western capitalism had to compete against the Soviet Union. It simply took some years for these institutions to become fully eroded after the 1990s. In other words, the collapse of the Soviet Union and its consequences.
Xiao, I have to hard disagree. I will throw some of your own analysis back at you, and share some of mine.
China
China's new 5 year plan includes building up domestic consumption. There is no indication that they will fail to implement this strategy.
China has swapped US debt for 2 African countries for the equivalent in Yuan. We may see even more of this down the road.
Africa
Russia has kicked Western forces out of much of West Africa.
UAE's and Israel's forces in East Africa, meant as a force against Iranian proxies - is at serious risk because of the Saudi-UAE conflict. This could also spark issues between Turkey and Israel.
The same Turkey that happily sold oil to Israel, while publicly condemning it for a domestic audience.
West Asia
The geopolitics of Turkey could shift against Israel, and Turkey's internal politics could easily accommodate that shift.
Ansarallah is chilling with popcorn watching Saudi and UAE proxies demolish each other in occupied Yemen. Remember that despite Saudi spending a quarter trillion on genociding the Houthis over half a decade, they were able to not only resist - but get stronger. All that with an estimated tens of millions spent by Iran. Since the seccesation of direct Houthi-Saudi conflict, we've seen them send missiles into Isn'treal and scramble carriers.
Israel is planning another attack on Iran. Likely sometime this month, and during a weekend so as to not scare capital.
Even a successful annihilation of the Iranian political class as well as former leaders would not be sufficient. This is because Iran has Vietnam style tunnel networks that span the country underground, and big enough to drive trucks and drones in.
Think of what Yemen is able to do from underground. Even with a visible and loud and propagandized Iranian defeat on the surface, Israel's fight would not be over.
And it is increasingly seeming like these riots won't even go anywhere, even with all the support they are getting from the West.
Latin America
The plot against Maduro was a spectacular military success, as well as a spectacular strategic failure.
They took away Maduro, who could have been couped with some patience due to the political backlash of the economic situation caused by US sanctions. American PsyOps managed to create a meme in Venezuela that the weight loss people experienced due to this travesty was the "Maduro Diet".
They made Venezuelan Liberals into Bolivarians. They brought a new wave of Latin American unity, with Columbia, Brazil, Cuba, and potentially Mexico (the last being least likely) to come together.
The best they could do in Venezuela was PsyOps about the Vice President being on the US' side. Even there they couldn't get consistent messaging across on that front.
Europe
They are shitting themselves at both Russia and the potential of a US threat.
They have no good source of oil/gas, and their industry is being hollowed out. Their war austerity is going to cause internal strife amongst a populace who has come to expect their former QOL as the bare minimum.
They feel betrayed by the US, and the Ukrainian "Stabbed in the back" narrative is propagating continent-wide.
European leaders will fold to the US whims, but the next generation will likely be rabid and oppositional.
Add on top of that that much of the younger generation acknowledges the plight of Palestine. They are disenfranchised and powerless, yes, but their leaders will age and die.
North America
Amongst the youth, both the left and the Nazi right hate Israel.
Israeli campaign contributions are used by people all over the political spectrum as a sign of untrustworthiness and corruption.
The generation of Donald Trump have been the political leaders of the US for this entire century thus far. With the average age of the president tending to go up by 1 with every passing year. But they are near the end of their lives, even with the best medical care available.
Regardless of who dominates US politics in the coming years, it will necessarily be younger, and it will necessarily be anti-Zionist.
The US economy is propped up by AI, for which we can all see the writing on the wall.
And think of the earlier point of China undermining the dollar as a reserve currency in Africa.
In earlier economic crises (ie. 2008), African countries had to accumulate US dollars as a reserve currency in order to keep jobs and hedge against their own inflating local currencies. However, with China having more of a consumption-based economy, and with these countries having Yuan-based debt and reserves - then the dynamic completely changes.
This means that the US economy can implode this time without it taking down the "3rd world" and making them even more subservient.
We are seeing a US that is on the precipice of dying, without the opportunity to recover through vampirism like it had done before.
The attacks on Venezuela and Iran were attacks on China's customers. China isn't getting involved according to publicly available information.
These countries are still standing and it would take a dramatic series of events to change that. So far the evidence shows a consistent pattern of failure to undermine this relationship.
The downturn of 20% of trade between China and Iran may be painful, but with the US burning through its global supply of interceptors for many years over the course of 12 days, it is hardly sustainable to militarily force a further downturn in Chinese investment and trade.
Thank you for the response, though a lot of that is too speculative that, while I would love for them to come true, simply does not refute the fact that we’re looking at a lot of inactions today, both domestically in the US, and on the international stage. Yes, there are movements, but not enough to threaten the empire.
The tragedy of the woman murdered by ICE yesterday is one such example. ICE has been kidnapping people for nearly a year now, although most of them aren’t white. They are emboldened because nobody’s stopping them, and the fact remains that if nobody will stop the Gestapo, we all know what that will eventually lead to.
Regarding the specific points on China:
China is already in over-capacity. It needs to build up domestic consumption market to absorb global export surplus goods and drive the domestic demand, not more investment on production. If China fails to do so, the US will remain the world’s largest consumer market and dictate world trade.
Which is probably the worst thing any country should do about their external debt situation right now.
The yuan is currently under a lot of pressure to appreciate, and if (when) it does, these African countries that just swapped the loan for yuan are fucked, because the lower interest rate will not make up for the more expensive yuan they have to earn to repay. In this case, they’re probably better off sticking to dollar debt and take advantage of the USD depreciation instead.
Regardless, no country should take on external debt not denominated in their own currency. It’s a guaranteed way to lose your economic sovereignty.
Besides, since China is running a record $1 trillion trade surplus last year, the question becomes where are those countries going to earn the yuan to repay the loans? In the end, they still have to sell their goods to countries who are willing to run a trade deficit (that means the US) to earn the foreign currencies, sell the currencies on the forex market to buy yuan, and then pay back their Chinese creditors.
It’s extra steps to take advantage of the lower interest rate, but the risks are being shifted to hoping that the Chinese yuan does not appreciate down the road.
Furthermore, the internationalization of yuan (and the rise of China’s consumer market) necessarily involves the appreciation of the yuan itself. You cannot have it both ways - that you want an internationalized Chinese RMB with an artificially devalued exchange rate.
In other words, if you’re betting on the yuan supplanting the dollar, then you should expect the yuan to appreciate and the dollar to depreciate. In this case, it does not make sense to swap the dollar loans for yuan.
What China can do right now is to use its vast USD foreign reserves to pay off those African countries’ debt (the entire external debt of the African continent is $800 billion, well within the reach of China’s several trillions of dollar reserve as well as its $800 billion worth of US treasuries), THEN flood those countries with Chinese yuan in a Marshall Plan style to give them the money to import from China. This will simultaneously raise the income of the Chinese working class, build up China’s domestic consumer market, who will now have more purchasing power to import from the developing countries in return while their countries are freed of debt bondage to foreign financial institutions. This will raise the income of both Chinese working class and those in the developing countries together - a true win-win strategy.
Do you think the PBOC will let the Yuan appreciate too much?
It'll make it much more difficult for third world countries to import intermediate goods from China.
They'll be forced to try obtain more Dollars to get same amount of Yuan. How much of that will be done through internal devaluation I wonder.
It’s a real dilemma (when divorced from the other macro policies). The PBOC has given in somewhat since late December Bloomberg article and there is a strong international pressure for the yuan to appreciate, but at the same time the PBOC is giving out reassurances that they will keep the exchange rate stable. Commentaries about it are split: some predict the yuan will rise to 6 by the end of 2026, others think the PBOC will hold the line.
For the third world countries, it’s a real dilemma as well. On the one hand, weaker yuan competes with their export industries, while a stronger yuan makes it more expensive to import from China as you said.
This is why I keep saying that China having a strong consumer market is going to be key because it solves this problem altogether.
Sorry I edited my statement. I meant China developing consumption not production.
Yes that makes more sense.
I will reiterate my position: China is rolling out a lot of policies to promote domestic consumption, but my take is that you cannot truly resolve that without resolving the elephant in the room, which is the massive wealth inequality.
The economists look at the record amount of household savings and think that they need to “trick” people into unleashing their savings, but this misses the fact the problem is a distribution problem. A lot people choose to save is because of the economic uncertainty. People are afraid of losing their jobs and since there is no social safety net, they prefer to save than to spend. This situation did not exist before 2020 by the way, when China’s economy was very much on the upward trajectory with the real estate booming.
I have said this before but just to write it out again, the solution to this will be:
The first two require the central government to run high deficit. In order for people to have the money, somebody’s gonna have to spend it. Previously this was foreigners money through export, as well as the money from infrastructure investment. But since the export and investment-led growth are hitting a wall, it can only be the government running deficit (spending beyond what they earn) to offset that.
The third is… uh… let’s just say very difficult.
not sure about this. these people are professional american worshippers and very rigid ideological soldiers first and foremost. ten years of brutal sanctions and hyperinflation permanently galvanized them to the other side, if the country wound up magically better they would still work towards its complete demise. We're looking at the new mustard viet diaspora and all the fascist militancy that comes with them, just, latin american instead.
Maybe I am conflating socdems and liberals.
most likely yeah, people who were already on the left don't like this, even the trots that don't shut the fuck up about the PCV. but the motherfuckers out there that identify as liberals are ecstatic.
If I try to imagine the 1930s and the buildup of fascism without the Soviet Union… it would look like today. Actually, and more accurately, today looks like the buildup to WW1 which was imperialist escalation par excellence.
The bad thing is that we are maybe / probably headed into a repeat of the previous century. Imperial contradictions reached a fever pitch, and due to poor timing, it became a testing ground for a variety of brand new technologies which made possible the “Industrial Revolution” of death, the most efficient production of murder known hitherto. I’m referring to airplanes, tanks, poison gases, and a lot more.
While no one has a crystal ball to answer whether the Russian Revolution happens without world war 1, I think it did play a big part in the “land and bread” messaging that enabled enough consciousness to overthrow the Russian Empire and pull out of the war. We very well might not have had a USSR without world war 1.
This is quite bleak and I don’t even want to call it a silver lining. But history has shown that it is precisely during the most catastrophic eras that the most revolutionary things occur. I won’t hold my breath for those things to happen in the West - this same history shows that it is more likely to happen in poorer countries. If world war 3 happens, we could see a surge in revolutionary activity around the periphery.
We just saw a women get murdered while opposing them, and the entire world is condemning it while the Administration tries to spin the murderer as a hero, and the Christian Mom protester as a domestic terrorist who deserved to die. Now the whole world is angry at MAGA, including many on their own side.
That's a pretty meaningful resistance. MAGA is slipping fast, and the fall is starting. One way or another, they are going to come out of the Midterms in bad shape. In fact, things are going so bad, they have so many retirements, that the House may actually flip BEFORE the Midterm. Then the Dems will control investigative committees with full subpoena and arrest powers. The Dems may not have done much during the Biden administration, but they did put Bannon and Ron Varo in prison for defying subpoenas.
Of course, Trump will pardon them, but that only strengthens the eventual court case that he was using his pardon power to tamper with witnesses and cover up his crimes, and then ALL of his pardons can be annulled by Congress as illegitimate criminal activities, and all those people - the Jan 6 Traitors, the ex-prez of Honduras, his criminal white collar conman buddies, etc., will all go back to prison.
We could make all that happen, and more, if we can force Congress to do their jobs this time around, and not expect them to wait for MAGA to have some sort of moral epiphany, which seems to have been the strategy until now.
Go for the football again, Charlie Brown. I'm sure Lucy will let you kick it this time.
What did the Democrats do during the Biden administration (or the Obama administration, for that matter) that permanently took away powers that the Republicans had been building, such that Trump couldn't just reinstate them with the stroke of a pen upon election? Literally nothing. The country is backsliding from neoconservatism into fascism and there's nothing that an aesthetic and media-savvy Democrat contingent will do about it.
The fact that you've been ~~politically~~ electorally active for 48 years and still haven't figured out that Democrats are compromised defeatists and controlled opposition in the age of neoliberalism is not something to brag about, in fact it's extremely embarrassing. Most intelligent progressives figure it out within a couple election cycles.
The progressive activist wing is at most 20% of the Democratic Party, and they have none of the money, because the money comes from the tech/pharma/banking interests that the party ultimately represents. The Democrats as an oligarchic party will outlive you as a human, and they will possibly outlive America as we know it.
First of all, let's forget the Biden administration. He could have become one of the top 10 presidents, but instead he'll be ensconced in the bottom 10, among those who dithered as the nation moved toward Civil War. IF the Dems ever get back in power, they should blacklist every member of the Biden administration. You had your chance, and you blew it badly. You're fired.
20% is a lot, and it is almost certainly going to grow after the Midterms. The Tea Party started controlling the Republican party with less than that, partially based on the fact that the rest of the party recognized that the Tea Party was the only growing sector of the party.
That's the situation that the Progressives are in. They should start throwing their weight around, based on the fact that they are the only active sector of their party, and their influence is certain to grow in November.
Money isn't an issue, the money will follow the power. Besides, Progressives are attracting a lot of support from Independent voters, and regular people. Bernie has been a powerhouse, while refusing corporate money, and relying primarily on small private donors.
The money issue only highlights the BIGGEST problem in our election system. Campaign Finance Reform is the issue from which literally EVERY other issue flows.
Before we can address corporate corruption in government, we need to prohibit ALL campaign contributions of any kind. Campaigns need to be fully financed by the Federal government, shortened to a 90 day campaign season (these people should be working the jobs we elected them to do, not gallivanting around the country pursuing their own ambitions), and tightly controlled, including campaign language and promises. Lying, propaganda, etc. will not be tolerated, and candidates can be cut off from Federal campaign funds, and kicked out of the race for violations.
Campaigning to represent American citizens is a serious matter, and the process should be held to an extraordinarily high standard. The system we have now filters out the best, and promotes the most outrageous, and we end up with idiots in charge, almost exclusively. I'm not that smart, but I'm pretty sure I'm smarter than any of the presidents that I've lived under for most of my life, and I'm POSITIVE I'm smarter than ANY of the Republicans. The only one who might have been smarter was Jimmy Carter.
I'd love to be on Jeopardy with Trump and GW Bush next to me.
I think you're being delusionally optimistic about the ability to grow the progressive representation in the government. We got a boost to the DSA in the first Trump term, and the Squad, which maxed out at 9/435, that's 2%. The Congressional Progressive Caucus went from 68 to 96 in two elections, and then likewise plateaued. The path to victory there is something seven (7) times that jump. I think less than 4% of the electorate are socialists, and I doubt as much as 25% are progressives. But let's set that aside.
I agree with something synonymous to this on a core level: money pervades and corrupts everything. There's just context that makes my structural analysis different.
Power follows money, money does not follow power quite as much. Economic power is the basis for political power, and always has been throughout the history of civilization.
America has always been an oligarchy. It inherited that orientation from its colonial precursor, its government was deliberately set up that way by the founders, and it has found ways to remain oligarchic, from the resistance to Reconstruction to the Red Scare to Dominion ballot machines and expanding primary seasons today. We may have had a brief few decades (from universal adult suffrage and the New Deal) where it got a little bit less oligarchic, then found ways to return.
The rich and powerful will never allow you to simply vote away their wealth and power. As soon as they see what you're aiming to do, they will put more safeguards in against what you're doing. This is why the largest upheavals in American history (Revolutionary War, Civil War) were largely two different elevated classes contesting for dominance.
There is no incentive for entrenched congresscritters to approve of campaign finance reform that actually works instead of making the whole thing more byzantine. You are trying to fight corporate interests by flinging yourself against a wall propped up by corporate interests and also the American political inertia. How do you expect you'll make it happen by working within the existing system, with a large majority of voters who are centrist to reactionary, and who have vested interests in preserving the global functions of capitalism?
How in the world could you believe this? How have the scales not fallen from your eyes? What consequences were there for the targeted assassination of Michael Reinoehl by the DHS? Biden had four years to even do a rote investigation to make it look like the Dems care and they didn't even bother to do that. The Democrats are not on your side and they never ever will be. They are on the side of the wealthy. ICE isn't a problem for the wealthy.
Dawg what fucking world do you live on? Have you seen the Democratic leadership? Schumer was chumming it up with Rubio YESTERDAY. They are not going to hold anyone accountable.