chat

Thank you for the response, though a lot of that is too speculative that, while I would love for them to come true, simply does not refute the fact that we’re looking at a lot of inactions today, both domestically in the US, and on the international stage. Yes, there are movements, but not enough to threaten the empire.

The tragedy of the woman murdered by ICE yesterday is one such example. ICE has been kidnapping people for nearly a year now, although most of them aren’t white. They are emboldened because nobody’s stopping them, and the fact remains that if nobody will stop the Gestapo, we all know what that will eventually lead to.

Regarding the specific points on China:

China's new 5 year plan includes building up domestic production. There is no indication that they will fail to implement this strategy.

China is already in over-capacity. It needs to build up domestic consumption market to absorb global export surplus goods and drive the domestic demand, not more investment on production. If China fails to do so, the US will remain the world’s largest consumer market and dictate world trade.

China has swapped US debt for 2 African countries for the equivalent in Yuan. We may see even more of this down the road.

Which is probably the worst thing any country should do about their external debt situation right now.

The yuan is currently under a lot of pressure to appreciate, and if (when) it does, these African countries that just swapped the loan for yuan are fucked, because the lower interest rate will not make up for the more expensive yuan they have to earn to repay. In this case, they’re probably better off sticking to dollar debt and take advantage of the USD depreciation instead.

Regardless, no country should take on external debt not denominated in their own currency. It’s a guaranteed way to lose your economic sovereignty.

Besides, since China is running a record $1 trillion trade surplus last year, the question becomes where are those countries going to earn the yuan to repay the loans? In the end, they still have to sell their goods to countries who are willing to run a trade deficit (that means the US) to earn the foreign currencies, sell the currencies on the forex market to buy yuan, and then pay back their Chinese creditors.

It’s extra steps to take advantage of the lower interest rate, but the risks are being shifted to hoping that the Chinese yuan does not appreciate down the road.

Furthermore, the internationalization of yuan (and the rise of China’s consumer market) necessarily involves the appreciation of the yuan itself. You cannot have it both ways - that you want an internationalized Chinese RMB with an artificially devalued exchange rate.

In other words, if you’re betting on the yuan supplanting the dollar, then you should expect the yuan to appreciate and the dollar to depreciate. In this case, it does not make sense to swap the dollar loans for yuan.

What China can do right now is to use its vast USD foreign reserves to pay off those African countries’ debt (the entire external debt of the African continent is $800 billion, well within the reach of China’s several trillions of dollar reserve as well as its $800 billion worth of US treasuries), THEN flood those countries with Chinese yuan in a Marshall Plan style to give them the money to import from China. This will simultaneously raise the income of the Chinese working class, build up China’s domestic consumer market, who will now have more purchasing power to import from the developing countries in return while their countries are freed of debt bondage to foreign financial institutions. This will raise the income of both Chinese working class and those in the developing countries together - a true win-win strategy.