Chapotraphouse

Whoever organised businesses into agreeing to the strike day I take my hat off to them because getting businesses to sign onto it is a huge "oh fuck" moment for the bougies. Realising that even business would align itself with the left (left of liberal) and organise against them is a moment of serious political recalibration.

Recognising that local business owners could be pushed into agreeing even if they didn't want to because so many of their workers would want to do it is great. It's a win win situation - if the business owners say no it estranges them with their workers, whereas if they say yes it scares the bougies.

Part of me believed that Trump is merely acting as the cruel Stick so that the next president can be the friendlier Carrot. USA will move past this dark time just as it went “past” Covid-19, eagerly embracing the new dawn while swatting away the unpleasant thought that it can be bad again. A collective mindset like that is counter revolutionary, and a competent fascist state would cultivate it intentionally.

The above is what I thought before Minnesota. Not anymore. This bell can’t be un-rung. The careful construction and deployment of ICE contradicts any narrative of it being a temporary, expedient Stick. We’re going into the next phase of fascism for real; it may cool off, it may smolder, but it will never extinguish without being forcibly doused.

I was talking to my partner about this last night. My prediction is that things will cool off, team blue wins the midterms, nothing monumental happens for the following two years, team blue barely wins 2028, then takes control of the repression machine again and starts grinding us up again.

I agree that we will see a temporary armistice where we can build power, but it remains to be seen exactly how long it will last.

Bovino is leaving, but things definitely ain't over yet "Exclusive: Hegseth approves request by leaders of Minneapolis immigration siege for use of military base"

I could so see it going either way, like you said Pretti was the perfect victim and what was done to him really is the american empire ripping off the mask to do the deed. Or, these fascists will double down and say to the people "the fuck you gonna do about it?"

I think the small strategic retreat that is ongoing should be celebrated, especially in light of the general strike likely being the deciding factor.

That being said, this is still just a small pause and you should anticipate this violence coming to your neighborhood. Not much other than just "organize", and learn resistance tactics including those that MN has used. Try to identify any neighbors that share your thoughts and values. You can't get as organized as Twin Cities has gotten right away, but you can be ready to hit the ground running when ICE does come to your neighborhood. Lean into normie orgs you are a part of, like PTA, your union, your religious community, hell even hobbies groups. They will all be allies when shit hits the fan.

Just remember that this small victory should be seen the same as a small victory for Palestinians, and the admin and HSI especially are always going to behave like the IDF

Had a co-worker of mine who was of the “you can’t threaten an officer with a car” mindset about Renee Good call me today to say that this was an absolutely and unconscionable murder and that the people who did it need to be imprisoned. Still wouldn’t admit to being wrong about Renee Good and I gave them their rhetorical lumps for that but it was a small thing that made me feel there is a definite vibe shift. This person is a historically R voting fence sitter who never went for trump so it struck me that they seemed to be pretty certain about what they had seen even though they’re still being bamboozled about Trans rights. I gave them a lashing about that too.

Porkies may pull a fast one via commodities mediated crash, there are like 2 viable routes now (oil exploding if iran finds some resolve/metal prices being so speculated on they start to fuck real production, not only copper and silver are nuts, aluminum and steel are also unhealthy) (3 if we count goldbugs via dollar related stuff, but that’s unlikely), this all can happen before midterms, idk what kind of grid upgrades they plan on doing with copper price being where it is (rip to chile left though, that’s rotten luck to lose election before price explosion), plus attack on iran is great distraction. This is all ignoring banks running out of money to finance data centers.

That’s all to say economy has lots of ways to implode now and not lots of ways to grow (sans ai working(tm))

Has the admin taken any Ls yet? Is it even an L if they're getting exactly what they want? This will ramp things up even more, giving them an even greater excuse to continue to ramp things up. This feels like their objective. Do violence to get a response, and then respond more violently to that response to get a bigger response. Rinse and repeat.

I'm not trying to doomer on this because I don't think they can ramp up the violence forever without public pushback that tears the whole thing down, but I don't think they have any intention of backing off. They want the battle.

In general I agree with your analysis, however

Miller, if competent, will take an L, fall into the background, and bide his time until we approach US midterms for another ramping up of domestic repression.

I actually think that this isn't correct. Miller knows that the midterms are approaching, and I think he correctly surmised that he needs to keep escalating, keep attacking. That is Trump's methodology and if Miller were to pull back that would show weakness and would absolutely open room for people to put a stop to this. His succees depends on keeping everyone on the back foot, reacting to his moves. As soon as he gives opponents the room to breathe I think they'll be able to gum up the works and stop him.

After the midterms, the game is either "over" (optimistically) or at least changes significantly where perhaps he will be more constrained, and that's why he's been pushing as hard as he has since Day One.

I have had some very similar thoughts on this matter, but I was waiting to collect them and add to this thread till I got home from work to use my computer. I am glad I did because what I saw on my way home is a very in your face example: The bus I take home passes through a main intersection where the county courthouse and other city government functions are held. For the past couple years there is almost always anywhere from a handful of protesters out with signs and slogans to three to four dozen for shit like No Kings. Tonight they were so numerous the bus couldn't even stop in front of the courthouse. I am talking like 5 or 6 times the largest crowd I have seen there and this was as it was winding down and people were dispersing. I am dead tired from working all day and have some stuff that I needed to take care of at home so I am not going back out. Looks like it is already over for today anyway. Yes it is the sort of toothless non-disruptive "protest" white libs love so much, but I can tell more people are taking shit more seriously.

We will see where all this goes, but generally yes, major vibe shift in just the past week. Even my bus driver talked to me a little about it since we had to go an extra half a city block just to drop off passengers.

Friday night after watching clip after clip of the general strike, the reporting of businesses signing up to close, those that gave out food for free rather than charge sales tax. I had a moment of hope, and I told my friends: The regime is going to collapse. Donald Trump is clearly very unpopular; I like how Felix constantly reminds listeners that Trump won because it was a cost of living election and the other candidate was the lame duck's vice president (and a genocide enabler). A lot of people voted for Trump because "immigration" was a radioactive topic for them. So was inflation, healthcare, jobs, etc. Now that they know what "cracking down on immigration" means, they are having buyer's remorse. Then ICE killed a person in cold blood, the administration circled the wagons, and made things even worse for them by lying about the murder.

I still think the vibe has shifted and think this administration is on the back foot. It's been building up. My biggest fear is all of the ruinous and damaging things they can do on the way down. We can't bring back Renee Good, we can't resurrect Alex Pretti or Keith Porter. There's so many people being warehoused right now. I would not be surprised if they enact a "final solution" as it becomes clear the midterm is over for them. I am concerned that with the supreme court set to decide on birthright citizenship. They might push things off the cliff, ignoring the writing on the wall.

I keep thinking of Gramsci's quote, the old world is dying and the new one is ready to be born. I think we might usher a truly egalitarian society. I am fairly certain that the milquetoast democrats are gonna lose to more radical, DSA, or DSA adjacent, anti-zionist/AIPA, candidates. I think we are gonna have to keep up the pressure and demand multiple impeachments, purges of the republicans from congress, state assemblies, etc. through investigations into their cooperation with Trump. They are going to have to pass anti-trust regulation with significantly more teeth to break up meta, palantir, google, and microsoft.

I think there'll be an "agreement" in Minneapolis where both sides can claim a victory. Border patrol will withdraw which allows Waltz to claim a win, but local law enforcement will co-operate and assist ICE with deportations, arrests and crack downs on protestors to a greater extent, instead of having ICE/CBP/DHS do that, which allows Trump to claim a win. Waltz is not some revolutionary figure, at the end of the day he's a Democrat that ran for vice president two years ago, and wants the protests to eventually end for his own reasons. The Democratic party wants to use them to bludgeon Trump, not to actually achieve real change on immigration policy. Extended length protests are bad for business, once the protests have achieved their goal of damaging Trump, Democratic party politicians will look for an off ramp and to shut them down with minimal outrage.

How does the left react to such a situation? I think every time some corporate Democratic politician says that people should put their bodies on the line or similar, we need to reassess, they likely have an ulterior motive beyond assisting immigrants and protecting their rights. In this case, furthering their political careers.

pistol grip pump on my lap at all times