I don’t know, it’s too soon to call it. We’re not even at the October surprise yet, probably Vance is getting replaced. Harris win depends on voter turnout
Yeah, this type of "reporting" is infuriating to me. Claiming the election is in the bag is just a shitty attempt to depress voter turnout.
I won't trust that Trump has lost this election until Harris is sworn in as POTUS.
I won't trust it until I read it in his obituary. Until then he's going to be claiming stolen election every single day.
And you don't even need to win to be president!
You just need to have it be close enough to have the supreme court call it in your favor, just ask Al Gore about that one.
(And for anyone confused: the odds that our bought-and-bribed-for supreme court would vote for anyone but Trump are pretty much lol, lmao.)
Personally I think it’s much more self-serving than that. In case this come true, that pollster wants to make a name for himself by being the first to predict it.
It will be comical if JD gets replaced by brainworm specialist RFKJ
Do you really believe they’d put vance on the couch?
I don't see how Vance getting replaced that late in the game helps Trump.
It actually plays into the Harris point of Trump churning through staff that he feels like aren't doing enough for him. And I can't imagine he removes JD and then puts him in his cabinet or something, to which I would expect JD to flip back to his pre-VP-audition stance on Trump and spread the word of what is happening "behind the curtain".
Clinton beat trump in every debate, it’s all about voter turnout man
My feeling is that Clinton’s big problem was that she had a low ceiling and low floor because of 20+ years of smears; even though she was definitely qualified, there was just too much generalized negative baggage. I knew many democrats that believed something big would come out because republican muckrakers had spent so many years seeding that field. When Comey decided to break all tradition over nothing it just reinforced that perception.
Harris doesn’t have that, she has a high ceiling for perception. More people have no idea who she is and the more she can be the one to define herself while Trump looks crazier and crazier the better she’ll do. And the debate feeds that unlike Clinton.
I voted Clinton in 2016...but I didn't exactly vote FOR her, moreso I voted against Trump. I feel like that's why she lost - she repeatedly demonstrated that she's an out-of-touch career politician. She had several How Do You Do, Fellow Kids? moments that turned off a lot of people. It also felt like they were putting way too much emphasis on her being a woman and that's...just not a selling point. I don't care what reproductive gear a candidate is equipped with.
I cringed a bit at those gaffs but there were two main reasons my vote was a reluctant one:
I can't stand politician dynasties. I don't want political families running the country and I definitely don't want it to be a Clinton (who I admittedly would have voted for in the 90s if I was eligible). Staying with Bill after the scandal was a political move in my opinion.
The nomination didn't feel deserved at all. Sanders got screwed in a time we needed him most and it felt like it did earlier this year when I intended on voting for Biden. Nobody likes thinking "this is not who I want to support but I have no choice." She was/is a "generic politician" who doesn't represent the people. 2016 was an awful time for the Democrats to hoist her up.
I don't have the same reservations about Harris even though she wasn't my first pick, for what it's worth, so please don't bring up misogyny. I was vocally against the ridiculousness of pizzagate and the "omg her emails," too.
Yeah the DNC trying to be kingmakers and shoving her to be the candidate because it was "her turn" was so demoralizing at the time.
I think this year will be different. A lot of people stayed home in 2016 because they hated Hilary but thought she had it in the bag. I don't think people are making the same mistake again. Especially after Roe v Wade.
Actually it's about the demented electoral college, can we string up any of the electors that refuse to vote the will of the people?
She also beat him in votes, but our country doesn't honor the will of the people.
Exactly.
Didn't Hilary win the popular vote?
Yup, but because the Electoral College weighs some votes more than others, that doesn't matter.
The turnout in swing states wasn’t enough
I would have agreed a few months ago, but tell that to Joe Biden.
Fair. But tbh I wasn’t paying attention to him until then (except through decisions, which were still better than we had in a long time.) I assumed the MAGA feces-throwing was the usual gaslighting until I saw it.
Howabout [In a typical two-party presidential debate where the candidates are both under eighty years old] they mean nothing.
Kerry won all his. Hillary won all hers. The race is unchanged and will boil down to who gets out to vote and how successful republiQan election stealing efforts are.
I wish that was the case, but the orange turd is not easily flushed.
It's like all of his rants about low-flow toilets were accidentally metaphors.
This isn't news. It's a talking head on a TV show.
It’s in the news cycle though 🤷♀️
That's the same thing as "it's in the news cycle" when a fox talking head says anything.
It's not news.
Let's make sure it is. Vote, get active, get involved
This is how the snowball started rolling with Biden right after the first debate. I doubt there are enough R's with spines to make it a trend, but here's hoping.
There's a big difference in their performances, though. With Biden it was more a question of "is this guy even going to be alive in January?", vs Trump who's just the same old idiot he has always been, and just finally met his match.
I don’t think he’ll lose any die-hards, but continuing this could depress turnout. It will affect the margins of “undecideds” though.
There is zero chance that Trump chooses to step aside. Literally zero.
To some degree that's irrelevant at this point as ballots are printed or at least printing. No matter what it will be Trump/Vance people see in their pamphlets. But the more republicans think he should have dropped, the less motivated they'll be to bother voting.
Yeah, I’ve seen this movie right after “you can grab pussy” locker room talk. Don’t listen to any of this bullshit.
#VOTE
Do not boo. Stay focused. Vote.
This race is exactly tied 50-50
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
You need to do everything you can to help Harris win! Donate and volunteer! Go do a web search how to do it right now! I mean RIGHT now! Go!
Honestly trump dropping out is pretty much the worse thing that can happen to Kamala.
Just like the worst thing that could have happened to trump was Biden dropping out.
The only reason anyone could convince themselves trump or Biden was a good enough candidate, was if the only other option was trump or Biden.
Replacing trump wouldn't just gain more republican votes, it'll cost a lot that are only voting Kamala to stop trump.
trump just won't do it, and no one will force him out
GOP is trump now. If he drops out 60% of the Republican voters would just write in ~~Jesus~~Trump anyway.
i wonder if voting trump out here would kill trumpism for good or are they too deep in orange shit to quit and will double down
Only way out is through. The modern Republican Party is dead like the whigs, we’ll see what comes next. My guess is that (if we can avoid authoritarianism/fascism) more of the sane conservatives will partner with Democrats as a more explicit centrist party and progressives shift into their own party if they can develop a better local presence.
It's too late for Trump to drop out now. Many state filing deadlines have passed, and I recall reading there are some states with extremely early mail-in voting where ballots are already being printed. Trump's only path off the ballot is if God exercises His Ultimate Veto.
I really don't think so.
Like. I remember something about how (at least in some states) you're really voting for a party ticket. And then the party that wins gets that many electoral college voters from that party who then vote. And I believe the only requirement is they vote for the party that won the votes to appoint them as electorers, and that's not even a requirement everywhere.
It was the small piece of truth that led to Trump's false elector plan last election. The only reason it didn't work, was his false electors weren't legitimately appointed.
So trump could both not be able to remove his name from ballots, but still drop out of the race and no longer be the candidate.
It's two different things with an incredibly strong correlation, but they don't always have to be the same.
I didn't bother to dig in and verify that tho, I may be wrong. But I didn't spend the time to do it and went off memory because trump just ain't dropping out no matter what.
It's not that you are voting for a party ticket, instead you are voting for electors picked by the party, with the only job of supporting the candidate. (In my state, the ballots even say we are voting for "Electors For ...." .) And in some states, once the electors are chosen on that ballot, the law says they must vote for their pledged candidate. So it's not easy for a candidate to just drop out. Those electors may not be given the choice to change.
Except Trump's famous "They're eating cats and dogs" line came from JD Vance. The craziest part of the debate wasn't even Trump's to fully own. JD Vance quite possibly is worse than Trump in regards to likability.
So if Trump drops out, who the fuck in the Republican field replaces him? Ron Desantis?
We were all saying Biden would never do it.
Biden was/is beholden to his donors, they threatened to cut him off and he had zero chance without their money, he wasn't a strong enough candidate.
trump is funded by foreign dictators, billionaires, and domestic idiots.
They're not cutting off his funding no matter what. So he won't be forced to drop like Biden.
Plus the only thing keeping trump out of jail is he's a presidential candidate, dudes going to do everything he can to hold onto any scraps of immunity he can get. Biden doesn't have to worry about that
I think nobody can really predict who will win until January. Watching polls may help people feel better but this is much more than national polls
Yeah right, don't get complacent. Get your asses out there and VOTE!
Offtoping here for a little bit, but Kamala's short campaign just 100 days before the elections feels more fitting to the media cycle. In a year almost everything can be forgotten, and when it comes to undecided, the closer your peak performance is to their actual vote means a lot. People get bored being fed the same thing for long, and if the stamina of the campaign is a finite resource, it's better spent after the last corner because you get people still recall what you did at the polling booth.
Welcome to the News community!
Rules:
1. Be civil
Attack the argument, not the person. No racism/sexism/bigotry. Good faith argumentation only. This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban. Do not respond to rule-breaking content; report it and move on.
2. All posts should contain a source (url) that is as reliable and unbiased as possible and must only contain one link.
Obvious right or left wing sources will be removed at the mods discretion. We have an actively updated blocklist, which you can see here: https://lemmy.world/post/2246130 if you feel like any website is missing, contact the mods. Supporting links can be added in comments or posted seperately but not to the post body.
3. No bots, spam or self-promotion.
Only approved bots, which follow the guidelines for bots set by the instance, are allowed.
4. Post titles should be the same as the article used as source.
Posts which titles don’t match the source won’t be removed, but the autoMod will notify you, and if your title misrepresents the original article, the post will be deleted. If the site changed their headline, the bot might still contact you, just ignore it, we won’t delete your post.
5. Only recent news is allowed.
Posts must be news from the most recent 30 days.
6. All posts must be news articles.
No opinion pieces, Listicles, editorials or celebrity gossip is allowed. All posts will be judged on a case-by-case basis.
7. No duplicate posts.
If a source you used was already posted by someone else, the autoMod will leave a message. Please remove your post if the autoMod is correct. If the post that matches your post is very old, we refer you to rule 5.
8. Misinformation is prohibited.
Misinformation / propaganda is strictly prohibited. Any comment or post containing or linking to misinformation will be removed. If you feel that your post has been removed in error, credible sources must be provided.
9. No link shorteners.
The auto mod will contact you if a link shortener is detected, please delete your post if they are right.
10. Don't copy entire article in your post body
For copyright reasons, you are not allowed to copy an entire article into your post body. This is an instance wide rule, that is strictly enforced in this community.