this post was submitted on 01 Apr 2026
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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of a destroyed American AWACS plane in Saudi Arabia, of which there is a very limited supply and each of which is enormously expensive both monetarily and in terms of components. Iran hit this with a precision drone strike that likely cost ~$20,000.


I don't have much to add from the last megathread description. This isn't to say that nothing has happened or has changed since then - decades are still happening in weeks - but the general flow of the war is remaining the same. Trump sometimes threatens to open the Strait with troops and flatten Iran to rubble, and other times threatens that he's gonna back off and let other countries handle it if they really want little trifles like "fuel" and "energy" so much. Iran continues to strike across the Middle East. The West continues to bomb civilian infrastructure due to their relative inability to affect the missile cities. In all: things are generally getting worse for America and the Zionists.

April is the month where the last ships that left Hormuz before it was closed will arrive around the world, so the last month of economic turmoil has been a mere prelude to what's going to occur in the near-future. The silver lining is that Iran appears to be formalizing the new state of affairs in Hormuz, creating a rial-based toll to allow passage between a pair of Iranian-controlled islands where they can be monitored, meaning that, as long as the US doesn't do something exceptionally stupid, the global energy crisis may "only" last a couple years instead of simply being the new reality from now on. Some countries have already agreed to this arrangement, and others will inevitably follow despite their consternation as their economies increasingly suffer.


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Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
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Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 17 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago) (1 children)

The conspiracy I'm seeing everywhere is that it was a covert op to take the Isfahan nuclear complex that failed and the pilot was cover. What's the megathread take?

Seems plausible. The abandoned airfield that the 2 transport planes were destroyed at was in Isfahan.

Why else would they need so many special forces? Hundreds? For an extraction that should just be putting a pilot on a vehicle and getting the fuck out of there? The story does not make sense for an extraction.

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 10 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago) (1 children)

Best write up I've seen so far on this; tldr: botched operation, no forward operating base. Pilot maybe rescued or not, no way to tell except Trump saying so.

spoilerThe evening of April 2nd, the Iranian military released a video of them shooting down a USAF aircraft. This was initially claimed as having occurred over the Persian Gulf, but apparently occurred near Isfahan. Wreckage corresponding to an F-15E of the 494th Tactical Fighter Squadron was recovered from a site south of Isfahan the morning of April 3rd, although geolocation of the very barren crash site took some time (fig. 1).

The afternoon of April 3rd, a number of USAF HH-60s and an HC-130 fueler (!) were spotted operating further south and west in Iran, over Kogiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, as well as at least one A-10, an MQ-9 Reaper, and apparently an F-35. An antiaircraft battle developed and the Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) HH-60s (fig.2) and an A-10 were damaged, with the A-10's pilot ejecting over the Persian Gulf. The HH-60s were reported as "damaged" and one was photographed trailing smoke. Reports emerged at that time that the pilot of the F-15E (which had crashed near Isfahan, although this was then-unclear!) had been rescued, while the WSO remained at large. Provincial authorities in Kohgiluyeh asked civilians to be on the lookout for an American aviator around this time and numerous photos of militia searching for him emerged.

The next day passed relatively uneventfully. The evening of April 4th, however, there was a report of more helicopter activity slightly further north, in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, accompanied by a washed-out photograph of an unknown helicopter flying very low on a very dark night (fig. 3). Later that night news emerged that the F-15Es WSO had been rescued... and that C-130s had been abandoned and scuttled at a forward base in the Isfahan area during the withdrawal of a company-size SOF force that had landed in the area, over 100 operators ostensibly having been sent to rescue one aviator. Photographs that emerged as dawn broke showed two burned-out C-130s and several destroyed MH-6 Little Bird SOF assault helicopters, in a scene reminiscent of the aftermath of Operation Eagle Claw (fig. 4). A USAF C-295 tactical transport was caught on video around that time flying in Iran - presumably outbound - at extremely low altitude.

So, what are we to make of this?

First and foremost, the official story - that a huge direct-action SOF force landed near Isfahan with assault helicopters and heavy transport aircraft to rescue one fugitive airman - is nonsense. Not because the USAF won't go to extreme lengths to recover isolated personnel - it can, will, and did in this case - but because that's an absolutely nonsensical way to accomplish that mission. It's a totally inappropriate force package for a mission to go in, extract a single person from a remote area, and leave. Ergo this SOF task force was there on other business.

So how were the pilots actually recovered? In all likelihood, exactly the way you would expect them to be recovered - by USAF PJs in long-range helicopters, under cover of darkness. The rescue force probably recovered the pilot from the Isfahan area late at night on April 2-3 and were caught in daylight as they exfiltrated, leading to the aforementioned antiaircraft battle the morning of April 3rd and a high-risk refueling over Iranian territory that was filmed by many Iranians on the ground, as well as a shot-down A-10 trying to clear a path for the helicopters to exfiltrate. The WSO was likely recovered from his hide site near Isfahan by HH-60 in a quiet and deliberate operation the night of April 4-5. One or two birds, in and out under cover of darkness - a far cry from the gung-ho stories currently being spun.

So what about the SOF rodeo happening at the same time? Well, why was an F-15 flying downtown to Isfahan the evening of April 2nd to begin with? Probably because there was a huge direct-action raid planned in the Isfahan area for the night of April 4-5, likely going after enriched uranium at an underground facility in the region, and the Iranian air defenses around Isfahan weren't going to suppress themselves. The plan was likely to fly several MH-6 assault birds and a sizable force of operators via C-130 and C-295 to a forward staging area near Isfahan the evening of April 4th, hit a reported cache site or sites for enriched uranium, and try to make it out with the magic dust by daybreak on April 5th.

In any event the USAF wasn't going to send transports somewhere it wouldn't send strike aircraft. So the Air Force cashed its check on claims of air superiority and in went the strike package the evening of April 2nd - and lo and behold one of the F-15Es went down because reports of the demise of the Iranian air defense network had been greatly exaggerated. Any rational planner would have scrubbed the SOF operation at this point because they'd lost control of the situation and the Iranian defenses had proven more effective than planned.

We went ahead anyways and inserted the SOF task force the evening of April 4th. I strongly suspect that this force was immediately discovered by Iranian drones that would have been up and searching for this WSO, because five transport aircraft including at least two C-130s (about what would be required for a bunch of Little Birds and a company-sized element of operators with equipment) landing at a desert airstrip 50km from Isfahan (and in the same general area where the WSO was taking cover) would be pretty God-damn obvious to anything with thermals. Iranian troops immediately deployed and began converging, the task force probably took indirect fire, and the operational commander immediately aborted mission and retreated in the three remaining operational aircraft. Scuttling charges on delayed fuzes burned two C-130s and an unknown number of MH-6s that had been abandoned at the airstrip around dawn.

The story that they were there to rescue the WSO was concocted at that time to cover the disastrously failed raid, as were logistically implausible claims that the task force had been rescued by three additional aircraft after the two C-130s got stuck on the LZ and were scuttled - perhaps to minimize the scale of the effort. Claims that a large battle took place appear to be similarly exaggerated - video has emerged of a single group of Iranian militia apparently killed in a drone strike, but nothing of the nonstop bombing and firefights that were rumored across Telegram all night. I remind the reader that the events of the last few days have proven quite conclusively that Iranians seem to have plenty of internet access to post photos and video when they actually have something worthwhile to film.

I'd like to note that Hegseth fired General George - US Army Chief of Staff - on April 2nd, apparently because he just wasn't a good fit for the job and definitely not because he'd told him that this whole scheme was insane. It seems to me that the good General's advice should have perhaps been heeded.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 5 points 35 minutes ago

Yeah this is really good. I think it's extremely plausible.

[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 8 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 18 minutes ago) (1 children)

Not really news per se, so apologies for that, but I wanted to share ArmchairWarlord's theory of what has happened over the last few days with the pilot thing - I think it's the most plausible explanation as most others have gaping inexplicable holes or rely on strange coincidences, but perhaps people here have other explanations. Simplicius and others are coming to very similar conclusions.

In summary:

largeish wall of text

  1. As has been publicly known, Trump wants to try and take Iran's enriched uranium, which is widely regarded by those with any sense at all as infeasible due the time and manpower it would require under heavy fire from Iran. Hegseth firing the generals may or may not be related to this (perhaps they objected to the operation), but the timing is, at a minimum, suggestive.
  2. On the evening of April 2nd, the mission begins. US aircraft enter Iranian airspace and breach as far as Istafan, aiming to knock out local air defense so as to open a window for an extraction team in the coming hours or days. Exactly how much success they achieved is unknown, but clearly it wasn't successful enough because an F-15 gets hit and crashes.
  3. The F-15 crash is reported by officials to be near a border province, for unknown reasons. Following information back to its source is very difficult in this conflict. [Personally, I can think of at least three reasons: Pessimistically, it could have been Iran trying to depict their air defense as more effective than it actually is. Optimistically, it could have been to ensure civilians weren't hunting for pilots in the vicinity of the actual crash and getting in the way of IRGC troops. Or it could have even been because communicating things in Iran in a timely manner is difficult given current constraints on sending radio/electronic messages with so much surveillance ongoing, so information was muddled or not specific by the time it was released to the public.]
  4. The US certainly knew of the crash right after it occurred, and immediately started an emergency rescue mission that entered Iran in the following hours, flying very low, at night, and with few aircraft (perhaps just helicopters), to the site of the crash in Istafan. The pilot was located, put on the helicopter, and begun to extract. The WSO could not be found and was left behind, because day was approaching or had already arrived and so stealthily extracting would be much harder. By the time the pilot was on the way out, aircraft had moved into position to facilitate the escape - this is where we saw that footage of the refueling aircraft and the two helicopters (which were damaged), as well as the A-10 (which was hit and crashed into the sea).
  5. At this point, anybody with any sense would say "Okay, mission is off - Iran clearly has functioning air defense and a strong military presence in Istafan." Trump does not have any sense. The mission goes ahead. The WSO is still missing at this point. Iran is likely looking for them with drones but is unable to find them as they are hiding somewhere and it's a wide area to search.
  6. On the night of April 4th, the mission begins. The WSO, who is still near Istafan of course, makes contact with the US military and is extracted in a similar way to the pilot - under cover of night, with a helicopter or two flying low. At more-or-less the same time, five C-130s carrying a total of 100 Special Forces fly into Iran towards Istafan, making their way to an abandoned airfield not too far from a nuclear facility which they plan to raid and... do... something? It seems unlikely to any reasonable military analyst that they would succeed in carrying out all this enriched uranium without major opposition and in a good timeframe, so perhaps the objective was more about causing some flashy explosions and claiming that the US now had the uranium or had destroyed it.
  7. These C-130s are detected at some point and Iran begins firing on them (the images of the wreckage have clear bullet holes/marks on the metal). This could have occurred mid-flight, or perhaps Iran noticed them landing and immediately sent out forces to counter the Special Forces who then fired upon the planes.
  8. Clearly detected and the mission ruined, the Special Forces are commanded to leave before they can do much of anything. They ditch the two most damaged C-130s, scuttle them with explosives, and all fly off in the remaining three. The two C-130s that were blown up were not stuck in mud or whatever - they're designed for landing in tough conditions and the ground in the area is very dry. Again, the WSO was already on their way out of Iran on a separate aircraft while this whole fiasco was going down.
  9. Trump sends out his post saying that the mission to extract the WSO was a huge success, as if that was the only objective and as if that required 100 Special Forces and five C-130s to achieve. Rumors of massive firefights and dozens/hundreds Iranian casualties were wild exaggerations. It's likely that some were killed and injured during the Special Forces mission, and perhaps the original mission killed some Iranian soldiers while they were contesting the airspace. But we aren't talking about a thousand IRGC troops getting mowed down by supersoldiers performing a lethal kinetic operation to extract a high-value operative against Islamic-style enemy combatants under classified mission code two-niner Foxtrot Alpha Bravo (that sentence should be read in Felix's operator voice).

Thoughts?

I've seen others generally agree with the idea but contest aspects of this narrative. For example, it's possible that indeed only two Special Forces aircraft were flown in for the mission and that three other aircraft were sent in later. It's possible that the landing site chosen by Special Forces was actually forced upon them due to air defense kicking in as they approached (which would perhaps explain why they were still a good number of kilometers from the nuclear facility, though apparently they did bring helicopters). It's possible that the two aircraft landed very hard to the point they were disabled, though most/everybody on the planes survived.

Regardless of exactly what happened, though, this conflict is being very badly managed by the US and I wish many more "wildly successful missions" like this, or however Vance put it, for the US military. Go for Kharg with something like this next, please.

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 8 points 47 minutes ago* (last edited 46 minutes ago)

This emerged as the leading theory once proper geolocation was done. I think it makes sense, but lets wait for smarter people to comment. The operation was 100x larger than needed to recover one person.

Looks like the planes took some hits before or after landing on the preexisting rural airfield, followed by a hasty retreat. The story about setting up a Forward arming and refueling point in order to recover the pilot (who crashed around ~100 miles away) was put out as cover for the failed mission.

P.s.: It might be helpful to use spoiler for large walls of text.

[–] hellinkilla@hexbear.net 23 points 2 hours ago (1 children)

Airlines Are Starting to Cancel Flights Due to a Jet Fuel Shortage

Jet fuel prices, as a result, reached $195 at the end of March, up nearly $100 from the end of February when the war began. And as the war drags on, jet fuel is getting harder to come by for countries that don't produce their own or have limited supplies.

the loss of oil in April would be twice what was lost in March, resulting in a growing scarcity of jet fuel and diesel.

jet fuel requires specialized storage, which means there is less stored than other products, like gasoline.

"If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11 billion in annual expense just for jet fuel," [United Airlines CEO Scott] Kirby said in a message to employees posted on the company's website. "For perspective, in United's best year ever, we made less than $5B."

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 12 points 2 hours ago (1 children)

It will be interesting to see who is lying about their energy reserves. For example, Japan claims that they have huge oil reserves, is that actually all there or do some reserves only exist on paper or are double counted by another country etc.

[–] jack@hexbear.net 10 points 2 hours ago

I would believe Japan has planned pretty decently for this, but not enough for the scale of what's coming

[–] hellinkilla@hexbear.net 15 points 2 hours ago

Failed US rescue operation ends in self-targeting strike: IRGC

text

Failed US rescue operation ends in self-targeting strike: IRGC

Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters says US forces bombed their own aircraft in Isfahan after a failed attempt to rescue a downed pilot.

Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Military Headquarters revealed that US forces bombed their own aircraft, equipment, and personnel after a failed rescue operation in Isfahan province.

According to the statement issued on Monday by the spokesperson, several US military aircraft entered Iranian airspace at dawn in an attempt to recover the crew of a fighter jet that had been shot down days earlier.

The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said that enemy aircraft violating Iranian airspace in southern Isfahan, including two Black Hawk helicopters and a C-130 military transport aircraft, were struck and are reportedly burning.

"President Trump has suffered a clear failure as of day 38," Khatam al-Anbiya stated, adding that his claims of a special operation that had allegedly rescued the downed pilot are but an attempt to "cover up his heavy defeat."

More aircraft lost

Additionally, the IRGC's Public Relations office issued a statement early on Sunday, revealing that an advanced MQ-9 drone was also shot down over the province, bringing the total toll to four drones destroyed in the area over the past five days alone.

The Iranian army also confirmed that its air defenses shot down a Hermes 900 drone belonging to US-Israeli forces over Isfahan, bringing the total number of enemy drones downed since the start of the aggression to 162, "reflecting a rapid decline in the aerial capabilities of the aggressors."

Following the failed operation, Iranian officials said US forces bombed the stranded aircraft, along with accompanying personnel and equipment, in what was described as an attempt to prevent further losses or exposure.

The statement described the operation as a “desperate attempt” by what it referred to as the “terrorist US military” to rescue the downed pilot.

US leadership trapped in ‘war of its own making’: Iran

The statement sharply criticized US leadership, asserting that President Donald Trump is “stuck in the quagmire of war and aggression that he started,” while accusing American military commanders of failure. It added that any future US ground operations or infiltration attempts inside Iran would be met with “decisive failure,” emphasizing the readiness of Iranian forces and public mobilization.

Iranian forces successfully struck two US warplanes over Iranian territory on Friday, dealing a sharp blow to Washington’s aggression and exposing the true cost of the American escalation.

US officials confirmed that one crew member has been found, while the other remains missing. The incident underscores the vulnerability of US forces despite claims of “overwhelming military superiority."

“Disgrace cannot be covered by media warfare”

Khatam al-Anbiya stressed that the outcome of the operation represents a significant setback for Washington, stating that “the disgrace that befell the American army will not be repaired by empty speeches, media warfare, or psychological operations.”

The statement further framed the developments as part of a broader confrontation, asserting that Iran’s actions reflect “divine favor” and reaffirming what it described as the eventual victory of the “front of truth over falsehood.”

Civilian casualties reported

The Governor of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province confirmed that US missile strikes in the region led to the martyrdom of three civilians and injuries to two others. According to the source, this will turn into a "new scandal of cover-up and lies for the United States."

Since the start of Operation True Promise 4, Washington has attempted to portray the campaign as a decisive strike against Iran. Yet the repeated losses of high-value aircraft and ongoing Iranian resistance reveal the fragility of American claims of success. Iranian forces continue to defend their airspace, demonstrating the resilience of the country’s missile and defense capabilities against US and Israeli aggression.

According to Analyst Matthew Chance, the shootdown of a US F-15E Strike Eagle over Iran marks a significant shift in the trajectory of the war on Iran. Chance notes that it exposes the growing vulnerability of American forces and the limits of Washington’s claims of air superiority.

CNN’s analysis describes the incident as the first confirmed case of a US warplane being brought down over Iranian territory since the start of the war, a development widely seen as a turning point in the war.

The episode unfolded alongside a broader pattern of operational setbacks. Around the same time, a US A-10 Thunderbolt II went down near the Strait of Hormuz, with US officials providing limited details on the circumstances, while Iranian authorities said the aircraft had been tracked and targeted by their integrated air defense systems.


There is something about this story which makes it hard for me to follow. I think this is new news but if it's old news, let me know and I'll remove.

[–] hellinkilla@hexbear.net 21 points 2 hours ago (1 children)

Trump administration signals it will offer broad tariff refunds. That could mean millions for companies.

So I guess the outcome of the whole tariff thing will be some sort of refund to corporations paid out of the public pockets. Only those who have teams of lawyers to advocate for them, probably reach some kind of settlements, in an impossibly complex system.

[–] marxisthayaca@hexbear.net 8 points 1 hour ago

lol.

Imagine what grief we could have saved if we've paid no heed to the pundits and there had been an opposition as angry and far-reaching as that in 2016/2017.

[–] hellinkilla@hexbear.net 11 points 1 hour ago (2 children)

Trump seeks exit from war on Iran after setback: Source to Al Mayadeen

fulltext

Trump seeks exit from war on Iran after setback: Source to Al Mayadeen

  • By Al Mayadeen English
  • 5 Apr 2026 23:12

Exclusive: Sources say Trump faces pressure to end the war on Iran after military setbacks, including a downed F-15 and failed Isfahan operation.

A regional diplomatic source told Al Mayadeen on Sunday that US President Donald Trump has fallen into a difficult situation regarding the downed F-15 fighter jet and missing pilot in Iran. 

The source also stated that the US president is facing increased pressure from influential circles linked to Washington's decision-making process, urging him to end the war on Iran. 

The source further stated to Al Mayadeen that the attempts at persuasion have become more serious following the failed military operation to rescue a missing pilot in Isfahan, and the images documenting the incident in a way that was embarrassing for Trump, as he continues to threaten Iran.

If the United States gets three more victories like this, it will be utterly ruined. 👏 pic.twitter.com/jutDghVrjz — محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 5, 202

The source stated that Trump's successive social media posts today, alongside his lack of public appearances, were interpreted by Americans and allied international voices as an attempt to hide Washington's setbacks in Isfahan and elsewhere. 

Tehran was also informed on Sunday that Trump is actively seeking a way out of the war with Iran, indicating that his media threats are nothing more than a scare tactic.

The source added to Al Mayadeen that Trump is also privately proposing negotiation options with Tehran that include concessions to Iran.

US and 'Israel' overlooked Iran's capabilities

Iran has shown itself to be a formidable foe against its US and Israeli adversaries, having survived over a month of continuous bombardment on its civilian and vital state infrastructure. 

Iran's missiles and drones continue to target US and Israeli assets in the region, attacking sites that have direct involvement in the military and financial aid of hostilities against the Islamic Republic. 

Tehran's retaliatory attacks have also lessened the amount of US and Israeli air defenses in the region, allowing it and its allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen to land more successful strikes. 

The Islamic Republic's major move against the US and "Israeli" assets has been the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, only allowing vessels that have no direct involvement in the attacks against Iran passage through the key waterway. 

Iran proved that it is not a state that will sit silent to hostile attacks, rather it is now ensuring that the US and "Israel" know that the fate of the war lies in Tehran's hands.


[–] jack@hexbear.net 14 points 1 hour ago (2 children)

A through and rapid retreat of the empire from West Asia where the US leaves Israel out to dry is the absolute best case scenario.

The source added to Al Mayadeen that Trump is also privately proposing negotiation options with Tehran that include concessions to Iran.

But is such a thing possible with a dullard like this at the helm?

[–] hellinkilla@hexbear.net 4 points 53 minutes ago

leaves Israel out to dry

I am hoping every day for this. At least it should retract into itself and take a pause from fighting with absolutely everyone. But-- What would have to happen for attacks on israel which aren't defensive/retaliatory, but intending to retake stolen territory? Real incursions. Who would do it?

All this shaking up of the image of impenetrable israel is nice, and the idea that the citizenry face consequences at home is nice, but how does it get taken apart?

(Sorry for randomly attaching massive question to passing comment. It is just on my mind recently.)

[–] marxisthayaca@hexbear.net 8 points 1 hour ago (1 children)

I don't believe Trump capable of conceding anything, but then again his only opposition thus far had been the Democrats.

[–] jack@hexbear.net 11 points 1 hour ago (1 children)

He has been forced to back down by reality before. The people's movement ended the ICE surge in Minneapolis and he hasn't attempted another. China slapped him firmly across the face in the tariff war and he walked almost all of it back with them. He gave up on controlling Yemen and accepted a ceasefire without achieving his goals. Even in Venezuela, he was helpless to achieve anything of substance within the country - only to impose a military blockade external to the country, utterly failing at regime change and having to act like he picked Rodriguez.

But in all those cases he could very easily frame defeat or retreat or stalemate as resounding victory, at least to his base but sometimes even more broadly. He always withdrew his hand from the trap before it snapped shut. This time, he's stuck. There's no option but gnawing off his own arm - the empire's arm.

[–] hellinkilla@hexbear.net 8 points 1 hour ago

god help whoever becomes the next target of the usa imperialism travelling circus. the amount of chaos required to shift attention from this will be massive.

[–] test_@hexbear.net 1 points 45 minutes ago* (last edited 38 minutes ago)

On a gut level, I kinda doubt that a single month is enough to establish a lasting deterrent with these people. The US is a clear loser and I think they realize it, but their leaders are idiots, whereas the Israelis might not be stupid but they are a fascist death cult with a tenuous grip on reality, and they are pursuing some kind of elaborate scheme to build Greater Israel, so I have no idea whether, in their convoluted calculations, this war is intolerable or even undesirable.

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 37 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago) (3 children)

So the latest ENSO leading indicator figures have just been released and the models are mostly predicting a super El Nino like in 2015/16, or an ultra El Nino like we've never seen before. If the simulations are correct and we get a super El Nino, 2026 will be in the top #3 warmest years and 2027 will break all records by a considerable margin, since we will be getting a 2015/16 super El Nino + 10 years of warming on top.

[–] LibsEatPoop@hexbear.net 9 points 2 hours ago
[–] jack@hexbear.net 23 points 3 hours ago (1 children)

Plant trees and overthrow your governments

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 19 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

Just planted some Paulownia hybrids and Mulberry trees! Still planning out the second suggestion.

Tasnim News has a collection of images of the destroyed US imperialist aircraft:

https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/05/3557412/images-emerge-of-downed-us-aircraft-in-central-iran

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 34 points 4 hours ago (2 children)

Colombia and Venezuela requested that Brazil start accepting their Virtual Payment System (PIX) in those countries too. Another step towards joining Mercosur by Colombia and Venezuela, and South American Unification.

[–] joaomarrom@hexbear.net 3 points 2 hours ago

Pix is absolutely incredible. Not only is it a middle finger to Visa and Mastercard, it's also incredibly convenient for pretty much everything that's not a payment plan to be paid for in installments (the Brazilian way of paying for any single thing that costs three digits or more). I only say pretty much because the downside is that every now and then you get an older person struggling with their phone and mobile network while you're waiting in a checkout line.

[–] jack@hexbear.net 15 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

Getting on Pix would be huge for operating outside the US's financial regime. As best I can tell, it's only in Brazil right now. Is that correct?

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 14 points 3 hours ago

It also works in Argentina, Chile, Portugal, Paraguay and Uruguay, iirc. Idk about Japan (lots of Brazilians living in there), Italy or Spain.

[–] Socialism_Is_The_Alternative@hexbear.net 32 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

Iranian defenders destroyed at least four US imperialist aircraft over the past 24 hours:

In a message posted on X, Brigadier General Esmail Qa’ani reminded the United States that its previous “rescue operations” inside Iran had ended in failure just as its most recent attempt to retrieve a downed airman resulted in the loss of two American military jets and two helicopters.

Iranian forces destroyed two US C-130 transport aircraft and two Black Hawk helicopters, which had come to rescue the airman whose F-15 fighter jet had been shot down by Iranian forces on Friday.

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/04/05/766360/Iran-IRGC-commander-warns-US-Israel-new-surprises-

[–] Self_Sealing_Stem_Bolt@hexbear.net 17 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago) (2 children)

two US C-130 transport aircraft

Why would you need even one transport aircraft, let alone two, to rescue one downed pilot? This wasn't a SAR, was it? This was a bungled operation around Ishafan, right?

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 20 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

They also lost 4 helicopters on top of that. The current consensus among the geolocator crowd is that the "pilot rescue operation" was actually a fake - the pilot was either already saved, captured or died in the crash around ~200km away. This would also explain why they needed at least 2 big transport planes, 4 helicopters and around ~100 special forces and why they used an existing runway close to one of Iran's nuclear sites and why Trump was even more unhinged than usual this morning. The geolocators could still be wrong in some way, I guess, but this is what we have so far. Edit: Iran claims to have shot down one normal C-130 tanker (the two destroyed on the runway are c-130j that are supposed to easily take off from mud/snow) and one MQ-9 drone.

[–] Formerlyfarman@hexbear.net 16 points 3 hours ago

I think it was 2 separate operations, the one in Isfahan, and another one 100 miles away were the plane was shot down.

[–] jack@hexbear.net 67 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago) (2 children)

Got this very bad vibes report from a comrade visiting Cuba:

Situation here in Cuba is quite grim.

Poverty rampant. Huge piles of garbage in Havana because of no trash pick-up. The vendors are desperate for tourists, so many will harass [Partner] and I (sometimes for blocks). Many people in rags, begging for money. We were warned that a lot of people will try to scam us. We quickly learned most people being friendly to us just wanted money—i’m probably said “no dinero” 100 times in the several days. We were told not trust buying water off the street and that drinking the tap water will make us sick. [Partner] also had her Cross necklace stolen off her neck; I wasn’t able to catch the thief, and she was very upset (her mom gave her that necklace as a gift).

There aren’t grocery stores like we have in the states. The street food is… questionable. The garbage piles create sanitation and heath problems.

In sum: we don’t hate imperialism enough for what it did to this country.

[–] manuallybreathing@lemmy.ml 20 points 3 hours ago

Bad Empanada and Hasan have recently released videos on them visiting Cuba, theyre distressing and upsetting but still interesting to see

[–] 3rdWorldCommieCat@hexbear.net 33 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

I genuinely fear for what will happen to Cuba in the future especially once the US takes their sights off Iran and back to them. They survived the special period but this is ramping up so much and I'm genuinely terrified. Forever death upon the usa for what they did to this nation.

[–] jack@hexbear.net 32 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

I share that fear. I think the US lashes out at Cuba after imperial humiliation and retreat in Iran.

[–] 3rdWorldCommieCat@hexbear.net 25 points 3 hours ago

I hate to be a doomer and even saying this but if the situation doesn't change asap I don't know how much more the revolution can take after constant brutal attacks and a slow genocide by the most dangerous and rabid dying empire of our time. I will never doubt the Cuban people in their steadfastness but everybody has a breaking point and this is atrocious. If the worst comes to pass, Cuba will be treated like shit still for even daring to resist so next to the underbelly of the machine for so long and nobody will ever bring up the embargo ever again cause it's gonna be blamed on "evil communism". I hope hell is real and anybody who's ever played a part on attacking Cuba has a special place there. Shit keeps me out at night. Muerte a todos estos demonios de mierda.

[–] sempersigh@hexbear.net 40 points 5 hours ago (3 children)
[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 9 points 2 hours ago

I wonder if Iran preempting the inevitable comment from Trump about how well neogations we're going by saying there are no current negotiations would lessen or negate the impact of Trump's seemingly inevitable comment tomorrow.

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