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Update on the Iraqi government formation:

All Sunni-led parties have formed a united Sunni front as I previously predicted. Halbusi has done it again, the fucker is an annoyingly good politician. I can't hate on him too much, his provincial government in Anbar has worked really well and him leading the Sunni vote means less influence for the more tribal and religious freaks.

The right-wing Shia parties are trying to force through Maliki again as a PM, which will fail inshallah. Maliki is working hard though, I have to give him credit, he has successfully thawed the previously dead relationship with both Barzani and Halbusi. PM Sudani sits in a weaker position than expected, most of the Shia powers seem to want a change of PM and the Sunni and Kurdish powers will go with the deal that gives them the biggest slice of the cake.

I'd say that the most obvious and most defining purely political divide is secularism vs islamism. The sectarian divide is extremely overarching and divisive, it's also ingrained in the overall structure of the democratic process of the country. There's even an unofficial agreement that everyone follows about the distribution of the six major offices between the three main groups in the country. Shias get the prime minister role + interior ministry, Sunnis get the speaker of the parliament role + defence ministry, Kurds get the ceremonial president role + the foreign ministry. Just to present a vague idea about how ingrained sectarianism is, not a single Arab has ever been elected in the Kurdistan Region.

Voting patterns mainly reflect sectarian allegiance first, then some sort of political statement about secularism and islamism. Sunni Iraqis have mostly consistently voted in favor of secularism since 2010, with a majority of Sunnis voting for Shia political leader Ayad Allawi's secular party Wataniya in 2010, then slowly turning towards Halbusi's Sunni-led Taqaddum and PM Sudani's more secular Party recently. Shias on the other hand have a good history with islamism, unlike Sunnis who had their regions ransacked and destroyed by Sunni islamists like Al Qaeda and later ISIS. Being the comfortable majority, and willing to assert that position, Shias have mostly voted for Shia islamist candidates and parties such as Maliki's State of the Law and the various PMU-aligned parties who despite their strong anti-US positions, still maintain the most exclusionary sectarian language in the country. Kurds lean towards secular Kurdish nationalism, with the more conservative KDP dominating Erbil and Duhok, and the more leftist PUK dominating Kirkuk and Sulaymaniyah. Kurds are even more discriminatory and isolationist in their selection than Shias and Sunnis. A Shia dude can get a seat in Sunni-majority Anbar, a Sunni dude can get a seat in Basra, but an Arab will never even be allowed to run in Kurdistan, let alone get a seat.

Then comes the secondary questions such as pro-US vs pro-Iran, and economic stuff. The pro-US vs pro-Iran stuff can be 90% predicted by just looking at the secularism vs islamism position. Most secularists that won seats are naturally more pro-US, mainly because Iran is simply the main source of conservatism and islamism in the country. Being pro-Iran automatically means in most cases that a person is an islamist, with small exceptions such as the Kurdish PUK who have historically had great ties with Iran.

National politics are pretty much an extension local politics, as governorates enjoy a pretty high level of autonomy. I have never seen so much local politics penetrating the national level as in Iraq, where you have local coalitions such as Tasmim in Basra, Wasit Ajmal in Wasit and the Arab Coalition in Kirkuk actually make to the national level on an entirely local political program. The chaos basically already starts on a local level, which is why today you have a lower level of development in Shia-majority regions where the decisionmaking is stuck in the limbo of neverending bickering between the numerous similar parties, while Sunni regions are limited to 2-3 parties at most and Kurdish regions have pretty much one dominant party. If we take Sunni local politics for example, we have Anbar that is dominated by only Taqaddum and their allies, and it's rapidly advancing, while a governorate like Saladin struggles due to all the tribal beef + numerous competing parties for influence.

My overall take is that sectarian trends still mostly continue but getting a bit weaker. Secularism vs islamism continues to be the main political question for sure. The chaos of national politics is directly influenced by the chaos of local politics, as too many similar parties bicker about small issues.

The 2025 Iraqi Parliamentary Elections are officially over, and we have the final results. The results are not entirely finalised yet, as the Election Commission go over small irregularities which might add or subtract one or two seats from some parties, but we have a pretty good idea of how it looks. I’ll first present the totals in three different sections to make the tables smaller and more readable. Section one will be Shia-majority parties, then Sunni-majority parties, then Kurdish-majority parties.

Section 1 – Shia-majority parties:

Section 2 – Sunni-majority parties

Section 2 – Kurdish-majority parties

Discussion

Government formation?

There are a few possible scenarios. The most likely scenario is that we get a vast coalition of literally everyone, with the bigger parties getting the bigger slices of the cake, and smaller parties getting stuff like the Ministry of Tourism. There’s a wild card this time though, Sudani is actually interested in governing instead of bickering like the Sadrists usually do after winning most seats. There are three possible scenarios for coalition governments without the usual “everyone is invited”.

American-friendly government: Sudani (46) + Sunni coalition led by Taqaddum (75) + Kurdish coalition (42) + Tasmim (6) + a few smaller parties (10-20) = >165

Iranian-friendly government: Maliki (28) + PMU coalition (60-ish) + Hakim (18) + Foundation Coalition (7) + PUK (17) + random smaller Shia and Sunni parties (40-ish) = >165

Impact of Sadrist boycott?

This election had a bigger turnout than the last election despite the Sadrist boycott. The Sadrists are now treated as pariahs in Iraq, after their failed attempt to influence the legitimacy of the elections by their stupid boycott. Muqtada Al Sadr has a big hill to climb now if he wants his people to return to politics now. I think that the Sadrists now regret their decision, especially with anti-Sadrists taking most of their seats in the south and Baghdad due to the boycott.

How did our beautiful communists do?

zero, 0, صفر

so sad

Thanks, I feel important on the geometric bear forum

It has never been so dry. The more revolutionary pro-resistance parties self-sabotaged by committing to a more sectarian program, and they lacked the discipline that Hezbollah for example display when dealing with other sects in society. Communists are more committed to a general secular program rather than any revolutionary program, which leads to weird alliances with Adnan Al Zurfi's more pro-US gang that includes even zionist freaks. It's not looking good, but it's a damaged society from the atrocities of Saddam Hussein and later the Americans and ISIS. It will take time.

From my observations, the Iraqi election process is as fair as it gets with the state of democracy across the world. Every nation that tries a fair democratic process is plagued by similar issues when it comes to propaganda by outside actors and widespread media manipulation. The main sources of media manipulation and propaganda when it comes to Iraq are the US and Iran, with both pushing in pretty much opposite directions. The US continuously pushes in the direction of secular liberalism through its media tools, and Iran pushes for more religious Shia nationalism and pro-resistance interests. Things are definitely getting a little less sectarian, as evidenced by the victory of PM Sudani's party in Nineveh, Arabs voting for the Kurdish PUK in Kirkuk because they like the governor, and Sunni-led Taqaddum dominating western Baghdad. I definitely agree with the idea of sectarianism needing to die before divisions across class lines emerge and solidify. The resistance shot themselves in the foot with committing themselves to a more sectarian program, which seems to have alienated a large portion of middle class Shia voters who are annoyed with disruptions to daily life by armed PMU groups and are generally happy with the current progress under PM Sudani. I think that the results in general indicate that a large section of society are moving towards voting for economic interests rather than sectarian interests.

The Iraqi Parliamentary Elections are officially over since a few hours ago. Very civilised and calm occasion, probably the best elections since elections became a thing in Iraq after the American invasion and occupation. Clear increase in the number of voters despite Muqtada Al Sadr's countless tantrums and subsequent boycott of the election, with his 1+ million potential loyal voters not showing up today.

Let's quickly talk results. Final results will be announced tomorrow at 6 PM Baghdad time, but we already have strong indications from exit polls, dumbass election officials who have leaked way too much, and initial calculations by people that I respect in the Iraqi political world. Full breakdown of the results probably coming by the end of the week but no promises. If the names and numbers are confusing, please click on my profile and check my earlier breakdown of the elections.

Biggest winners:

1. PM Mohammed Al Sudani and his coalition. Sudani's gang have by all indications achieved a historical performance in this election. They seem to have a very strong performance in Baghdad, Basra and surprisingly Nineveh as well. They are set to have 50+ seats at the moment and Sudani looks to be the guy that will be tasked to form the new government. More on this point after the official results, but Sudani's victory comes as a result of a Sunni-Shia middle-class coalition of people that we as Internet freaks would refer to as "I just wanna grill" people. The rise of the griller is a new phenomenon in Iraq, it will be very interesting to talk more about this soon.

2. Kurdistani Democratic Party. All that talk about Kurds finally getting tired of the Barzani eternal oligarchy was just talk. The KDP has burst through the 1 million votes barrier and will position themselves as the primary senior partner in Sudani's upcoming ruling coalitions, alongside Halbusi's Sunni-led Taqaddum

3. Nouri Al Maliki's State of the Law. The shit that just won't flush. He is the living proof of "time heals everything". Most Iraqis wanted him hung in Tahrir Square after the ISIS disaster, but somehow people forget and he seems to have secured more seats than last time, enough to make him a pain in the ass when it's time to form a government.

Biggest losers:

1. PMU-aligned parties except Sadiqoun. Horrible performance by both Kataeb Hezbollah's Huquq, and Badr, two of the three big PMU-related parties. Anti-resistance propaganda by American-backed media has definitely left an effect in people's mind which directly affects their vote and leads to the creation of something like the "I just wanna grill" societal class. PMU parties in Iraq also seem uniquely bad at developing a strong base of loyalty and support, which leads to many situations where they display clear incompetence compared to the disciplined and popular Hezbollah and Ansarallah.

2. Muqtada Al Sadr. He lost the elections despite his boycott. He wanted to tank the credibility and the participation rate in the elections, but that drastically failed today with how positive the whole atmosphere around the elections has been. He's truly the worst gambler of the all time, can't believe he once again maneuvered himself and his followers into a stupid ass position that makes him look like a loser cult leader again.

3. Kurdish opposition. It was a little bit of a now or never for most Kurdish opposition parties, but early results shows that they're sadly cooked like the kids would say. Iraqi Kurds just seem incapable of even considering the idea of voting for another guy or party.

The real nerd breakdown coming soon inshallah chat.

It's mostly that, they often deliberately station army and police away from their home regions in order to induce a little more interaction between the different parts of society. Many IDPs will also be tasked with guarding election sites on Tuesday, so it makes sense to give them a chance to vote early.

Iraqi elections have started today. Members of the army, police, other security organs and also internally displaced refugees are voting today and tomorrow. The actual election day will be on Tuesday. I'll keep you nerds updates with the latest exit polls and general info as it comes up in the upcoming week.

Cock Cheney is getting dragged in Jahannam now hopefully

That's the guy. What an insane character, but all his contradictions have left an overall positive effect on Christian visibility in the country. I mostly don't agree with him and he's definitely more of a mafia leader than an actual politician, but I respect the pure grind mentality in getting a pretty oversized chair at the table of power in Iraq. Chaldeans are a minority within a minority, but he's up there with the big boys, being involved even more than most Sunnis and Kurds in making the big decisions in the country.