Image is of a destroyed American AWACS plane in Saudi Arabia, of which there is a very limited supply and each of which is enormously expensive both monetarily and in terms of components. Iran hit this with a precision drone strike that likely cost ~$20,000.
I don't have much to add from the last megathread description. This isn't to say that nothing has happened or has changed since then - decades are still happening in weeks - but the general flow of the war is remaining the same. Trump sometimes threatens to open the Strait with troops and flatten Iran to rubble, and other times threatens that he's gonna back off and let other countries handle it if they really want little trifles like "fuel" and "energy" so much. Iran continues to strike across the Middle East. The West continues to bomb civilian infrastructure due to their relative inability to affect the missile cities. In all: things are generally getting worse for America and the Zionists.
April is the month where the last ships that left Hormuz before it was closed will arrive around the world, so the last month of economic turmoil has been a mere prelude to what's going to occur in the near-future. The silver lining is that Iran appears to be formalizing the new state of affairs in Hormuz, creating a rial-based toll to allow passage between a pair of Iranian-controlled islands where they can be monitored, meaning that, as long as the US doesn't do something exceptionally stupid, the global energy crisis may "only" last a couple years instead of simply being the new reality from now on. Some countries have already agreed to this arrangement, and others will inevitably follow despite their consternation as their economies increasingly suffer.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
People seem weirdly upset about the ceasefire, this isn't some kind of capitulation from Iran, they're literally demanding the US agree to their objectives, so either this is the US surrendering while refusing to admit that is happening, or the US is just buying time.
But it's not like Iran packing their weapons away into long term storage unable to be used. The entire time the Iranian military will be ready to go and react to the inevitable breaking of the ceasefire by the US. The Iranian people probably know more about the duplicitous of the US better than any other nation on the planet right now.
This ceasefire does enable Iran to safely support their civilian population in heavily bombed areas, providing support and aid and assistance, and making sure the civilian population is able to better weather attacks after the US breaks the ceasefire. Iran agreeing to this means many more lives are saved. This is a good thing.
Iran is not going to just sit there and do nothing if the US actively starts moving more troops or weapons into the region, if a bunch of random nobodies on an internet forum can track US troop movements, a state with far more resources than us can also do it.
It honestly wouldn't surprise me if the US establishment is doing this solely so they can sell stocks and maximise personal profit, that seemed to be the goal of Trump's original shorter ceasefire plan. Even if this is some 69D chess move from the US, having two extra weeks to prepare a ground invasion or another bombing campaign won't magically make it more successful, trying to take Iranian territory will still be a bloodbath for the US, regardless of how "well prepared" they are.
I will second this: We should all be happy people aren't being bombed. People here had been dooming about nukes for the entire war, this seems better.
Like, I get it, we won't see more epic Ls of the dying empire for a bit, but Iran has to consider the safety of their population. And I think they made sure to show that they are a state you don't fuck with.
We will see how all this translates in the coming days. I have a decent amount of faith that the people who gave the US a bloody nose won't utterly fumble the bag now.
I'm almost at the point where I would start telling people to
or 
if they're so keen to see these Ls, make some themselves, instead of sitting on their asses, exposing their western chauvinism because they're fine with 
people dying to weaken the US, but aren't willing to put themselves in danger in the same way. But I recognise that isn't helpful or useful, so I'm not quite at the crash out stage yet, but my god, some of the takes I have seen really boil my blood (not too bad here thankfully, just the usual doomer stuff that always happens anything something happens/doesn't happen)
Iran's advantage is in long-scale attritional wars.
US/Israel's advantage is in short term wars.
If Iran keeps doing this, they cede their only advantage - and then the material conditions actually favour the US and Israel.
Yes they keep depleting the interceptors then stopping and letting them restock. Hey let's have our annual "dump munitions into Iran" party!
How is Iran ceding their advantage?
The US excels at hybrid warfare, perfidy/deception/espionage and short bursts of extreme destruction before they deplete their limited stockpiles. The way to defeat them is long protracted attrition conflict, not playing their hybrid warfare game and letting them pick the moments of engagement. If they are really running out of munitions, the strategic move is not to bow out, but to press your advantage and punish them. Iran fights on the backfoot until they have regained even footing, and then call a ceasefire. Then let Israel and US get them on the backfoot again.
I wanted the US trapped in the bear trap for as long as possible to create even a possibility of hope they collapse before having a chance to destroy cuba, or freedom of movement for others to create fires the US doesnt have forces to put out
There is a catharsis to it I get it, but be the change you want to be then and do something yourself, instead of demanding Iranians die for it.
I dont rly have the power to "do something myself" seeing as the "something" i want done is the US to be caught in irans bear trap as long as possible and to bleed as much as possible
Unfortunately, antiimperialists do not hold power where i live. I am protesting and organising for my country to leave NATO, condemn US attacks, stop supporting them etc, but I do not have command of missiles, guns, artillery or mines, or an artery of the global economy to hold hostage.
No amount of organising done by me has a chance in hell at protecting cuba even a thousandth as much as the US being embroiled in this conflict would. At best Ive been able to help raise a few hundred dollars which despite assurances of cuban comrades is very clearly drops of water on a raging fire.
So to put it uncharitably, you are fine with Iranians dying, so long as that keeps the US busy.
Not saying that is really what you think to be clear, but please realize what this sounds like.
If you know youre putting it uncharitably, why phrase it that way?
Am I fine with iranians dying? No
Do i think a temporary ceasefire now will lead to more deaths later, both iranian and cuban and, if the US successfully regains its imperial footing, in the AES states, the EZLN and other antiimperialist movements? Yes! Because thats what has happened every time the US eats shit and makes a retreat like this. They pillage latin america, rebuild their strength and crush everyone who asserts independence once by one
"So to argue in bad faith and make things up... you said this"
Yeah it feels like nobody is gonna let their guard down until something more durable is agreed on, and I still don't see how either side agrees to a set of facts on that front.
Last time I checked the news mega, people were dooming about the US dropping nukes on Tehran. Now people are whining about Iran "ceding their advantage" apparently. Like, you can't have it both ways. You either be like Mao and welcome the nukes (the term "paper tiger" was coined when Truman threatened to nuke China if the PVA crossed the Yalu river and Mao correctly predicting that racist cracker won't do shit) or you eventually take an off ramp for the sake of not climbing the escalation ladder. There's no middle ground where Iran can continue fighting but fight in such a way that the US doesn't seriously think about dropping nukes.
Credit where credit is due, some people like CyborgMarx believe the US is bluffing and will not resort to nukes, meaning that those people's analysis that Iran should continue fighting is contingent on their prediction that the US will not resort to nukes. But for everyone else, you can't swing from dooming about nukes getting dropped to dooming about Iran botching the ceasefire.
I feel this way for the most part. Althougb the elephant in the room is, and always will be, Israel. Are they really going going to temper their genocidal tendencies and let up their campaigns in Gaza and South Lebanon? I really dont think so and I wonder what Iran is prepared to do if Israel doesn't respect the potential 10 point agreement.
It does seem like Iran was negotiating with the US specifically, not Israel, so the US might either be forced to reign them in or actually have them face the consequences of their own actions for once. The US has shown with this war that they can't really project power into the middle east like they used to, so they might cut their losses and run. People act like Israel is vital for the US, but not really any more than any other vassal of theirs, once it becomes more costly for the US to defend them than they get out of the agreement, they'll cut them loose like any other. Israel thinks Israel is special. But then so does Germany, so does the UK etc. No US vassal truly is.
Ceasefires involving the US and Israel have almost always been about buying them time to rearm. It's not hard to imagine a situation where they begin strikes with renewed intensity in two weeks (or sooner!).
I've been pretty light on criticism of Iranian leadership in the past because they obviously have access to a lot more information than the average Hexbear user, and a lot more weight on their shoulders. But damn if it didn't seem like the hardliners had been proven right, and Iran had now been absolutely humiliating the US, only to call a ceasefire.
In any case, I hope the negotiations are successful for Iran. If there is any sense left in the Trump administration, they will realize that this is their best shot at spinning the situation as a win and flee west Asia with their tail between their legs.
The thing is though, this isn't completely one sided, Iran is being hit extremely hard too, so I don't blame their leadership for wanting a ceasefire, it benefits them too, it's not like they're doing it out of respect for the US, they're doing it to give their people some breathing room. And if the US is dumb enough to break the ceasefire(which I mean, obviously), Iran will only humiliate them further.
Yeah, I'm aware. It's just that I was thinking the same thing last year and here we are in an even larger conflict.
Israel needs to be dismantled pretty thoroughly dismantled for true peace, as regardless of how good the US-Iran terms are, they will inevitably start a new conflict, and the US will inevitably support them.
Yeah, edited my comment because it came across much more accusatory than I meant originally, I didn't mean to imply you didn't know what was going on, I think they're just prioritising their people's safety over long term destruction of US power in the region, which is much riskier and potentially far more devastating for them(The US or Israel would almost certainly drop a nuke if things got bad enough for them).
Though I'm not so sure the US would inevitably support Israel, once it becomes more costly for the US to protect them than they get in return, they'll dump them just like any other vassal. I don't know when that tipping point would be, but it does seem like Iran is currently testing the waters on that as we speak.
All good, I didn't take it as an insult or anything
Because it means that:
Once again, US and Israel will not be punished via attrition warfare for their war cycle of annual weapon dumping on Iran and depleting interceptors, then re-stocking and doing it again during "peace".
All of the talk of Iran feeling like they were winning are brought into doubt, since people who have an advantage don't back down
Iran's new leadership WAS negotiating this whole time while lying about it to us, Trump admin was being honest
Brings into question what else Iran's leadership was lying about, and what else they will be willing to capitulate on
The ceasefire is unclear whether it includes Iraq, Palestine, Yemen or Lebanon, are they just going to get picked off in the interim? Iran continuing their bad trend of abandoning their allies to be picked off one at a time.
The global economy will recover and no recession or crash will happen in the west. No reckoning will occur to punish the Trump admin and they will now turn their eyes to Cuba, unfazed. After they're done with Cuba, they will be back for round 2 against Iran.
All of the implications of this deal being made on Trump's timeline are bad for us, and good for imperialism.
You need to chill and stop jumping to conclusions. It is far too early to tell how things will play out.
I agree a couple of these are not proven, but many are valid concerns. Israel is saying the ceasefire doesn't include Lebanon. Iran is saying it does. That will be the test of this.
However there are strategic reasons to be concerned by this development. America and Israel thrive on hybrid warfare and surprise attacks and straddling the line of ceasefires and war. One side is saying they want Iran to have no missiles and no civilian nuclear, the other is saying they want all sanctions lifted and tolls on the strait and Americans to leave the region. I don't see any overlap where peace happens here without major capitulation from one side. It is too early to tell how it will develop but there are reasons to be worried. The "ceasefires" in Gaza led to continued degradation of the situation and ongoing genocide. Nothing has been resolved. People want a resolution.