WalrusDragonOnABike

Owning a car means you are decently affluent. Owning an oversized SUV or truck even more so. I feel bad for those who are dependent on NG for cooking or heating (as the Southern hemisphere is going into Winter), but its a lot harder to feel sympathy for people who are well off enough that they thought buying a $50,000+ vehicle that gets like 15mpg and commuting 80 miles a day was a reasonable thing.

TBF, I'm partially calling myself out. I own a gas car (granted, its a compact car that gets reasonable by US standards that's old enough to drink). I've found the gas prices an additional motivation to opt to not use my car as much as I can reasonably avoid it. But not everyone has access to alternatives (for me, its ebiking to work, but that depends on a lot of factors).

The US can't even figure out how to replace their own supplies

High gas prices hopefully get some people to second guess making extra trips in their gas guzzlers and otherwise think about their dependence on fossil fuels.

Sulfur also been going up over the last 10 days consistently (another 30% of its price a year ago, bringing it up to ~130% increase over the past year). Urea also up about another 30% (so 80% increase in total). I guess people are taking their time realizing the extent this war is gonna have on those markets.

Copper is pretty much unchanged, but I know at least one company is building up their reserves due to the conflict.

WTI oil back to the highest its been since Monday.

Given where you're posting, the sign that someone is an extrovert is that they look at the other person's shoes instead of their own. /j

I have a tendency to avoid looking at people I think and suspect the habit partly came from the same place as not wanting to see myself.

Could you convert that to chain/butt for me?

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5794480-us-embassy-cuba-diesel-fuel-iran-conflict/ They're blocking the embassy. A bit different than a naval base, but still a question.

When I first saw some say something about "mining the strait", I thought the meant like mining minerals, and I was like "are they considering trying to fill up the strait with rock? I guess that's one way to prevent tankers from being able to go through"

The table still using some optimistic assumptions, such as only 6 months of closure being the upper limit (where that's probably the more realistic lower estimate if USrael doesn't just back away from this or resort to the nuclear option within that time), using the US official casualty numbers, using brent oil price as its estimate of the severity of the oil shock (which ties back to the strait being open in 1 month maybe assumption) to imply its not as bad at 1973.

Did the AI and Hegeth assume Iran would block their own shipments because they assume a binary strait open/closed?

I think the nuclear part is also basically just as high. If they do not take the enriched uranium and destroy all the equipment for the nuclear facilities, then they should assume Iran will immediately make nukes and once they have enough use them and the strait to get back to where we are now, but with the added threat. But given the requirements to do that and to prevent rebuilding in the near future, they still need a puppet installed first. The fastest way to open the strait for now would be to rapidly withdraw from the region, cancel all sanctions, and give reparations.

But it kicks the can down the road given they can't help but do imperialism and I have a hard time seeing them taking that option at this point. But if they can't take that option now, after thousands of ground invaders get killed, I have a harder time seeing them do that. Which leaves going back to bombing by trying to wipe city after city off the map...