this post was submitted on 01 Apr 2026
133 points (99.3% liked)
news
24711 readers
817 users here now
Welcome to c/news! We aim to foster a book-club type environment for discussion and critical analysis of the news. Our policy objectives are:
-
To learn about and discuss meaningful news, analysis and perspectives from around the world, with a focus on news outside the Anglosphere and beyond what is normally seen in corporate media (e.g. anti-imperialist, anti-Zionist, Marxist, Indigenous, LGBTQ, people of colour).
-
To encourage community members to contribute commentary and for others to thoughtfully engage with this material.
-
To support healthy and good faith discussion as comrades, sharpening our analytical skills and helping one another better understand geopolitics.
We ask community members to appreciate the uncertainty inherent in critical analysis of current events, the need to constantly learn, and take part in the community with humility. None of us are the One True Leftist, not even you, the reader.
Newcomm and Newsmega Rules:
The Hexbear Code of Conduct and Terms of Service apply here.
-
Link titles: Please use informative link titles. Overly editorialized titles, particularly if they link to opinion pieces, may get your post removed.
-
Content warnings: Posts on the newscomm and top-level replies on the newsmega should use content warnings appropriately. Please be thoughtful about wording and triggers when describing awful things in post titles.
-
Fake news: No fake news posts ever, including April 1st. Deliberate fake news posting is a bannable offense. If you mistakenly post fake news the mod team may ask you to delete/modify the post or we may delete it ourselves.
-
Link sources: All posts must include a link to their source. Screenshots are fine IF you include the link in the post body. If you are citing a Twitter post as news, please include the Xcancel.com (or another Nitter instance) or at least strip out identifier information from the twitter link. There is also a Firefox extension that can redirect Twitter links to a Nitter instance, such as Libredirect or archive them as you would any other reactionary source.
-
Archive sites: We highly encourage use of non-paywalled archive sites (i.e. archive.is, web.archive.org, ghostarchive.org) so that links are widely accessible to the community and so that reactionary sources don’t derive data/ad revenue from Hexbear users. If you see a link without an archive link, please archive it yourself and add it to the thread, ask the OP to fix it, or report to mods. Including text of articles in threads is welcome.
-
Low effort material: Avoid memes/jokes/shitposts in newscomm posts and top-level replies to the newsmega. This kind of content is OK in post replies and in newsmega sub-threads. We encourage the community to balance their contribution of low effort material with effort posts, links to real news/analysis, and meaningful engagement with material posted in the community.
-
American politics: Discussion and effort posts on the (potential) material impacts of American electoral politics is welcome, but the never-ending circus of American Politics© Brought to You by Mountain Dew™ is not welcome. This refers to polling, pundit reactions, electoral horse races, rumors of who might run, etc.
-
Electoralism: Please try to avoid struggle sessions about the value of voting/taking part in the electoral system in the West. c/electoralism is right over there.
-
AI Slop: Don't post AI generated content. Posts about AI race/chip wars/data centers are fine.
founded 5 years ago
MODERATORS
133
Image is of a destroyed American AWACS plane in Saudi Arabia, of which there is a very limited supply and each of which is enormously expensive both monetarily and in terms of components. Iran hit this with a precision drone strike that likely cost ~$20,000.
I don't have much to add from the last megathread description. This isn't to say that nothing has happened or has changed since then - decades are still happening in weeks - but the general flow of the war is remaining the same. Trump sometimes threatens to open the Strait with troops and flatten Iran to rubble, and other times threatens that he's gonna back off and let other countries handle it if they really want little trifles like "fuel" and "energy" so much. Iran continues to strike across the Middle East. The West continues to bomb civilian infrastructure due to their relative inability to affect the missile cities. In all: things are generally getting worse for America and the Zionists.
April is the month where the last ships that left Hormuz before it was closed will arrive around the world, so the last month of economic turmoil has been a mere prelude to what's going to occur in the near-future. The silver lining is that Iran appears to be formalizing the new state of affairs in Hormuz, creating a rial-based toll to allow passage between a pair of Iranian-controlled islands where they can be monitored, meaning that, as long as the US doesn't do something exceptionally stupid, the global energy crisis may "only" last a couple years instead of simply being the new reality from now on. Some countries have already agreed to this arrangement, and others will inevitably follow despite their consternation as their economies increasingly suffer.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
Every single logical argument says that use of a nuclear weapon is farfetched if not outright impossible right now. One thing worries me a lot though, I absolutely believe that Trump's demented brain wants him to drop a nuke just so that he gets remembered as the guy who dropped the first nuke in 80 years.
It's not logical to get into a war with a country that has more missiles than you could ever dream of shooting down, let alone actually keep up with production wise, much less tell your troops you are doing so because you believe the Book of Revelations is an instruction manual for a black magic ritual to return your messiah.
And yet, here we are.
Prediction: Trump bombs more bridges and power plants - which is what he actually threatened here (not nukes). And then he'll extend the deadline for the end of civilization.
Maybe but I'm starting to think we might be closer now than at any time during the cold war, including the missile crisis. At the time the possibility of nuclear armageddon was on everyone's mind, and both sides had nukes.
Right now the empire is dying, has been deeply humiliated, is led by insane people, and there is no way out of the current situation that doesn't involve them losing face. And it's even worse for the entity - I don't think they're even capable of stopping at this point. For both, there is a (fucked up) argument to be made that this is an existential crisis. I truly hope I'm wrong but as this goes on and it becomes clear that nothing will work I do see them using a nuke.
If he uses nukes then that changes mainstream politics in the USA to be more repressive and authoritarian. The government will be brittle, and see many things as threats to their internal power.
Mainstream reform politics, even in many states, will be forced out
I mean nothing about this war is "logical." If Kissenger-type folks were in charge I'd agree, nukes would be off the table, but given the present state of things...
It would end the US empire -- which I think makes it even scarier, because at that point WW3 seems hard to avoid.
I don't think it does, not immediately anyway. All too many world leaders would be willing to write a sternly worded letter without making immediate change. It would probably lead to the end of the trump presidency, but followed by dems running on a platform of "I don't hate using nukes on civilian populations, I hate dumbly using nukes on civilian populations"
We are already seeing actual material changes e.g. several euro states refusing the US their air space and bases
I hate being optimistic bc of the risk of being disappointed, but it rly does feel we're at a moment of massive imperial collapse
We'll see if it sticks or if they go back to normal when Newsom wins in 2028, just like they all did in 2020.
Trumps first and second terms are almost incomparable imo. Not to mention the COVID crisis and subsequent mass mobilizations for BLM basically required a pivot to democrats for the sake of resetting popular unrest.
euro states have another option with an operational nuclear triad. decoupling from US was the heap of most resistance which is why they haven't done it, but the fallout would make aligning to france not just easier, but the only rational option
It wouldn't be immediate. But if the US becomes increasingly isolated in the ensuing years, leading to more desperate and unhinged behavior, leading to more isolation, in a feedback loop, I'm not sure where the off-ramp is.
if the US nukes Iran in an unhinged racist outburst, many nations will face increasing grassroots pressure to switch camps to China. Their capitalist and political classes may even feel the same -- nukes don't care how rich you are, and the US may be viewed as a loose cannon that crashed the global economy and no longer has the power to sanction them.
I think the faster the US collapses, the more dangerous it is, and there's a big question mark over "how much would nukes speed up the timeline" that freaks me out.
this is the trajectory we are on already.
yeah that also popped out at me after I wrote it. I edited it - "basically I think the faster the US collapses, the more dangerous it is, and there's a big question mark over "how much would nukes speed up the timeline" that kinda freaks me out."
this all kinda scares the shit out of me so my perspectives might not be logically consistent and might be a bit vibes-based
100%, we are living in a very stupid and evil timeline
Even if the world discards the Iranian people's suffering, irradiating the crossroads of global trade and oil production seems bad, no?
Nukes do not irradiate things long term. American modern nuclear weapons are very efficient at converting their radioactive matter into energy to be used in the initial blast. Within a week levels would be much lower, though still not great, within a few months for the most part the radiation would be back to normal.
The empires been in a state of decline for decades at this point. WW3 has also arguably been ongoing for a few years. Remember, WW2 only "offically" began in 1939 when western imperial states (britain and france) directly entered the war against Germany. But conflict had been raging in Europe through the 30's (spain) as well as the Italian invasion of Ethiopia. Then there was also the Japanese invasion of China beginning in 1931. So by the time western europe went to war, China had already been fighting for nearly a decade.
The current conflict will see the reach and influence of the empire beyond its immediate sphere disintegrate, but it will be far from over.
If Trump nukes Iran, they have enough uranium to dirty bomb every major US city.
It’s a can of worms they can’t open.
Happy to be proven wrong but "dirty bombs" have never made sense to me. Radiation isn't magic, and even using a lot of irradiated dust, a good dispersal mechanism, and using stuff like Cobalt, I doubt it would stay effective beyond a few hours. More at the center if it's blown at ground level I guess. It would freak people out but ultimately I doubt it'd kill or even affect that many people. Even considering using it inside public transport or similar, you could do something more effective with far easier to obtain payloads, starting with chemical ones.
And all of this wasting in the process extremely valuable and hard to produce/obtain fissile material.
It would make for the perfect false flag to justify a nuclear strike though. You could parade "scientists" to explain how chemical markers found in the attack show the material has come from Iran, etc. the whole shebang.
Shouldn't is not cant
But do they actually have it or is it buried in Isfahan and similar?
If they have it secreted away in unknown locations then yes. If it's buried in Isfahan and you're already nuking them then you can do enough damage to their forces to enable you to land a large expeditionary force with heavy construction equipment and excavate and remove the material onto planes and take it with you denying them that option for revenge. Sure you'd suffer casualties, some drone strikes, missiles, etc but the US probably has enough interceptors left to provide some level of defense.
There's also the problem of delivery. Iran has no missiles that can reach the US and I don't see them getting through radiation detectors at port crossings to deliver it on the ground. They could maybe dirty bomb the zionist entity and gulf comprador states but would either really care? They both see their people as expendable assets and the zionist entity sees non-Jews especially as expendable fodder.
I concur with another reply that it wouldn't be an apocalyptic scenario for either the entity or the US. Sure a bunch of people would get cancer down the road from it but that doesn't matter to capitalists and the empire. It's not like it would render cities long-term uninhabitable as they'd just wash it away. The wealthy would be able to flee to country homes or homes in other countries while working class would get irradiated a bit and worry but be unable to do anything about it.
Israel and the Trump administration are possibly the two least logical governments on the planet right now
The problem is that it's entirely up to Trump and nothing can be done to stop him if he decides to. It really is as simple as that.
The USian population is famous for the amount of small-arms owned by civilians.
edit: wrong thread woops
US gun nuts in the streets firing their tacticool AR-15s at American ICBMs flying overhead