Trump assumes the IRGC are as dumb as him and the people he's surrounded himself with, which is going to be catastrophic for how this goes for him. The IRGC are theocratic authoritarians who are not motivated by money, and he can't conceive of this, so is clearly at a total loss as to how to handle the situation he has created
this post was submitted on 22 Mar 2026
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Just like the taliban, they aren't motivated by money, that is insightful. They believe in something. Which means none of what the US can do will work on them, just as it didn't with the taliban.
Worked on the Houthis though. Iran might be a tougher nut but they won't sacrifice everything just to keep the Strait closed
Then again, keeping power over the Strait is one of the most valuable pieces they still have on the board
What worked with Houthis? they kinda paused because genocide was kinda paused, their demands were met and they made it clear they are ready to join again to fight Epstein coalition.
Ah yes, the Houthis paused because their demands were met
pats head
Whatever makes you feel good :)
Raising oil prices is the ONLY card Iran has to play.
but as far as cards go, it is the ace of spades.
Closing the straight is multifaceted, but yeah, hurting the global economy is pretty much their only strategy due to the asymmetric nature of this war.
Idk, a bomb vest in Disneyland would be an interesting maneuver
Mossad would do everything possible to help some mentally ill do that. Talk is they are hard at doing such.
Just pointing out there's less technical options
I'm in a very very privileged position to be able to say this, but I am more than happy to pay a little bit extra at the pump and on my gas bill, just for that colossal fuckwomble to be shown up on the world stage for being a weapons grade tosser.
Is it childish? Yes. Does it make me feel slightly better about the world? Also yes.
How long do you think that position will last?
If energy infrastructure is destroyed, then "paying a little bit extra at the pump" is just the beginning. You will need to reduce your overall consumption by 15-20%.
Remember the worst month of Covid? That's the last time consumption was reduced so heavily. Now imagine that Covid lifestyle for 5 years as energy infrastructure is rebuilt.
The joy of Trump's downfall will not be enough to mask the real economic pain, unfortunately.
I also recognize my privileged position when I say this: I'm pretty sure I can tolerate it longer than the American Oligarchs will tolerate the loss of profit and start using those politicians they've purchased to put an end to it.
I feel like this would be a net win for the world. Everyone in the old empire is shooting themselves in the dick right now. If Iran stops the flow of oil, countries are going to be forced to very, very, very quickly invest heavily in renewables more than they already are.
This idiot may have single handedly put a dent in global warming.
Now imagine that Covid lifestyle for 5 years
You say that as if I haven't already been doing that.
Yeah nah probably about a day or two.
Shit. Maybe the Alberta oil sands will finally be profitable! Haha, nah just kidding. They wont.
I read they are profitable above 60 a barrel, like 15 years back.
They've been profitable for some time.
A lot of people say they're profitable at $60/barrel, but it's more like between $50 and $80, depending on a bunch different factors, such as location and extraction method.
But that's only considering profitability in the terms of the current political system.
If a new system came along that factored in harms to the environment, global warming, etc., they could go back to being unprofitable.
Counterpoint: Eat me.
Counterpoint to your counterpoint : Go rim a goat.
Did it open back up at some point?
Yesterday(?) they announced it was open to anyone not working with the US/Israel
They've been letting some ships through heading to India and China, and were talking about setting up a vetting system to allow more ships through
I thought they were mining the strait? How are they gonna control who hits the mines?
Anyone that mines keeps charts to keep their own ships clear.
They guide or pilot through the unmined passages.
They put mines on the international part, not their own lanes.
They can't, which is why I'm skeptical that they actually laid any mines.
And it looks like at at least some level, the Trump administration assumed their only means of closing the straight was mines, which would have prevented them from using it as well.
Iran's new strategy of selective closure via missiles and drones clearly surprised the Trump administration.
After the regime change, we’ll see in what country
Another extremely reasonable statement by Iran
I don’t know enough about all this, but how difficult is it for them to keep it shut? Do they just bomb any boat that tries to go through it?
Don't even need bombs, it's not very wide that can shoot at them with artillery very easily.
Merely threatening would be enough.
and insurance costs will do the blockade.
No, they allow boats they clear through. Boats have obscured ownership, most are registered to the same three countries, little backwaters, so if they attack one specifically, it's because they got word their ownership is billinaire US or Israel or connected.
Great job , and now taco ?
I wish, but no, it's just deeper into the escalation trap for Trump.