this post was submitted on 01 Sep 2026
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idk what to think, with everything in the world I haven't been following Venezuela too closely.

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[–] Juice@midwest.social 5 points 12 hours ago

By the time Maduro was kidnapped, the oil wasn't being controlled by the government, by the public in whatever sense that concept persisted under Maduro, but by the Venezuelan military. We can look at her and say shes cynically just staying in power, but I think she's barely even capable of that. The economy has been all but destroyed by sanctions and capital strikes, right wing terrorism rocks virtually every part of life. Something had to give and it was public control of natural resources. I think her government is scrambling just to stay at the table, not so much cynically grasping at opportunism.

[–] PurrLure@hexbear.net 6 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

I just hope Venezuela can eventually get out of that terrible 100 year deal by telling the world they were under duress when they signed it. I mean it's the truth so... pepperman-grudge amerikkka

[–] architect@thelemmy.club 1 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

Would be nice if our cities could do that too but doubt. The people have a bad leader and that’s a choice they make to continue every day.

[–] Jabril@hexbear.net 57 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

https://hexbear.net/comment/7424846

https://hexbear.net/post/9407861?sort=New

Some discussion on it in those links

The marxist take is that Venezuela has no real leverage to stop from being attacked and blockaded, so avoiding that to allow the communes to continue developing is better than inviting bombing, innocent deaths, destruction of infrastructure and losing all their oil revenue

The ultra gamer vibe analysis is since delcy didn't strap herself to a shahed and fly it directly into Washington, she is a comprador who deserves no support. Considering that PSUV and the communes are all still supporting her, the only thing we can really surmise is that there aren't a lot of gamers in Venezuela

[–] infuziSporg@hexbear.net 33 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

She's making concessions to Trump to stay in power and not get invaded or bombed or abducted/assassinated.

Whether this is worth it for the Venezuelan people depends on how the Hormuz War ends (how much the US armed forces are set back), what Trump's political position is after the midterms, who the next president is, and how many viable leadership candidates the PSUV has that won't devolve into civil war or invasion.

Instead of American capital seizing Venezuelan oil all at once, it is doing it piecemeal. It's a waiting game.

Editing more details in:

  • A Democratic president, though they might attempt to pivot back to a soft power approach, is unlikely to overturn any of Trump's foreign policy actions, or any of his actions at all beyond the merely symbolic. A Republican successor is completely unlikely to overturn anything and may try to squeeze more.

  • If the Hormuz War ends with a "Trump always chickens out, so attack logistics are disengaged" (TACO SALAD) to save military strength, US empire retreats from the Middle East but doubles down on the Americas and maybe the Pacific; this makes Venezuela's position more difficult. If the war ends with a humiliating and destructive defeat of the US, Venezuela might be less threatened.

  • The geography simply does not line up in Venezuela's favor. It's not the worst position imaginable, but it's pretty unfavorable. Iran is a comparison that will inevitably be made: they have low (traversible) mountains, ability to threaten a global top-5 chokepoint, a population of 90M that's broadly spread over the country with some devolution, a lot of distance from America, proximity to friendlier medium and great powers, a long history of social cohesion in the face of foreign military incursion, and a 47-year-running state apparatus with 37 years since major wars. Venezuela was established as a colony, its population of 32M is clustered close to the coast facing the US, around mountains that are much bigger obstacles; it has never suffered an international war but there is also no regional substance of military conflict to learn from and its state apparatus has been ongoing for only 27 years; its only neighbor with geographical continuity just flipped to the reactionaries; there are no nearby great powers to lend support or prop up their economy, which is less diversified/advanced.

  • The waiting game hinges on who ends up having more power over Venezuela in the long run, themselves or the US. The optimal outcome for Venezuela is that the Hormuz War drags on at great cost to the US, ends up weakening the Republicans and the military overall, that Cuba survives, that the hands of Morena and PT in Brazil are strengthened regionally, that China and Russia continue to increase in global influence, that something pops off in Bolivia or Peru or Chile, and that the AI bubble pops and sends the American economy into a depression. Venezuela can then deploy their long game of re-nationalizing their oil without retaliation, but lacking just 2 of those conditions might mean they aren't able to do this.

[–] Cowbee@hexbear.net 41 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Venezuela is in a very difficult position, and presently the forces supporting the continuation of the Bolivarian revolution see it as a strategic retreat to preserve the PSUV. Venezuela does not have a DotP like Cuba, they have a progressive government and a growing commune movement that the government is sympathetic towards, but the Chavistas do not have total control. The Bolivarian revolution is far less complete than, say, Cuba, which does not have an organized and politically relevant capitalist class opposing the government like there is in Venezuela.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 2 points 21 hours ago (2 children)

Which is why this kind of action is problematic but also the crux of the issue with their situation.

If you have an actual DoTP you have a chance of enduring, of control, of surviving this situation. If you don't have a DoTP... well put it this way the USSR had a DoTP and thanks to rot, nihilism, etc it was still overthrown through "reforms" that transitioned to something more. China as the poster child for this we must remember was in a situation of extreme danger due to corruption and penetration by western intelligence by the 2000s and so on YET they still had a DoTP, they still had a decades old loyal and ideologically disciplined intelligence and military apparatus and people overwhelmingly supportive of the party in a generalized way and they had a party willing to use someone like Xi to purge this corruption and because of the military and intelligence loyalty there was no ability to coup him which is what would have happened if there was any real split in loyalty or a faction captured by the CIA/liberalism.

I don't know what Venezuela should do. People say struggle is pointless but I'm sure the same was said for the people in Korea and Vietnam and on and on. Should we not struggle, just submit to the empire, let it sink tendrils of infection deep into our veins, poison our people, undermine the revolution, hollow it out until by the time they tire we're too weak to resist them anyway and they brush us aside using compradors in our own midst? Or should we do armed struggle even if it's hard, painful, devastating. Is it worth dying for the revolution just to make the US pay, just to deter it from doing the same to others, just for a chance of owning your future entirely?

So I fear the idea of this strategic retreat will end in the 2030s with someone trying to pull back from it and being immediately assassinated or couped by carefully groomed neo-liberal elements within the political, military, intelligence apparatus that the US had years to prepare. At which point the open reaction begins, murder of socialists and instead of the country fighting under the banner of liberation and self determination the revolution and revolutionaries are extinguished with a whimper in their beds.

Because Democrats aren't going to allow them to pull back so this retreat lasts for as long as the US has the ability to exercise power (which unless you're hoping a third world war hits in the early 2030s and devastates the US it's likely to be able to do to Venezuela for decades yet). Instead of stealing so much for the US Democrats once in power are likely to earmark more funds for "building democracy" by funding CIA NGOs in Venezuela and setting the groundwork for a coup or color revolution. And of course as a condition to continue getting these funds they'll insist these CIA tendrils not be interfered with.

I suppose the problem is as mentioned above Venezuela never had a complete revolution. There are still significant reactionary elements, the population writ large is not ideologically educated, the commanding heights are not entirely under the control of the revolution, the military and police are not ideologically loyal to a sufficient degree so one could argue they don't have the ability to resist, that as a peaceful, democratic socialism this is the only road open to them and anything else leads to invasion and most of the country not standing up to fight the Americans but rolling over.

Iran's leader once talked of swallowing poison in a deal with the US and I feel Venezuela has done a similar thing. They didn't have any good choices. Whether this was the least bad choice or not I don't know.

It just makes me question "what of Cuba" given their even more dire position.

[–] teslekova@lemmy.ml 1 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

Regarding Cuba... Sure, they look fucked right now. But that won't stop them resisting the Empire.

The people of Gaza haven't stopped resisting, even as they are murdered in their hundreds of thousands and their very fields blasted to ruin. No dotp there, not a lot of governing or economic structure at all (although more than Israel thinks or wants). But it shows the strength of people's will to resist.

[–] Jabril@hexbear.net 2 points 11 hours ago

But it shows the strength of people's will to resist.

It shows their lack of material alternatives. "The people's will" is idealist, you are assuming their thoughts have supremacy over their material conditions, when it is the other way around. They literally have no other options, and if they did, I bet they would have tried them first

[–] Cowbee@hexbear.net 2 points 16 hours ago

Yep, it's difficult to tell if this is simply the least bad option available, but in any case my sympathies lie with who the commune movement supports and the Chavistas, and my fiercest condemnation goes to the US Empire.

[–] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 27 points 1 day ago* (last edited 21 hours ago) (1 children)

Mr. Trump there is approximately 1 trillion dollars worth of oil buried in my backyard, it's pretty deep but rest assured it's there, let's make a deal trade-offer

[–] comrade_pibb@hexbear.net 10 points 1 day ago

mister predisent it's true i counted all the oil and it's lots

[–] ZeroHora@lemmy.ml 32 points 1 day ago

100-year concessions

They think USA will last 100 years he-laughed

[–] ShimmeringKoi@hexbear.net 27 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

I think at a certain point, one bleeds into the other. It doesn't matter what your intentions are when they aren't driving your actions. When you aren't driving your actions.

[–] Moomoo_Milk@hexbear.net 19 points 1 day ago

Let's be honest here, what can they really do? They're an occupied and puppeted country at this point. Any form of resistance will be met with force that they cannot overcome currently.

[–] Sanctus@anarchist.nexus 33 points 1 day ago

That depends what her options actually were, which realistically me being a terminally online twink I dont actually know. I wanna say something about the US being a paper tiger and to stand up but remember we literally stole their president. And Idk what that looks like from their point of view I just know that Americans are fuckheads.

[–] DasRav@hexbear.net 25 points 1 day ago (1 children)

There is a good chance US companies spin their wheels for the next few years until Trump croaks and everyone forgets any of this ever happened. They can't use this oil after all, it cannot be refined in most (if not all, I am not sure about all) US refineries.

She may be betting on that.

[–] Jabril@hexbear.net 20 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Very likely. Convince the abuser you won't run away and lay low until they inevitably die in a drunk driving accident

[–] DasRav@hexbear.net 19 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Yea. Not ideal by any means, but Venezuela sadly didn't heavily invest in ballistic missile technology 40 odd years ago.

[–] GrouchyGrouse@hexbear.net 7 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Well, to add to the other points made about simply outlasting Trump, the USA is also getting mauled by Iran, so that’s additional pressure in the form of somebody’s ballistic missiles

[–] hotspur@hexbear.net 21 points 1 day ago

Is she not, like the rest of the country, essentially just a hostage? I mean it looks like she’s being too compliant perhaps, but what choice does she have at the moment? My guess is she understands the precarious of their position, and is choosing to wait and see if they can get anything beneficial from the US by acting compliant.

I feel bad for Venezuela, but like it was never in a position to defend itself the way Iran has, its options were always dicey and limited.

If they could get the US to have to invade them with troops they might be able to do some damage, but we know that’s not how it would go—would be bombing and targeted strikes to kill leadership who aren’t onside with the US game plan.

Best case for them is to sorta wait this out; US is crazy over extended and Trump admin has done tons of illegal bullshit, so possibly they could hope for a reversal if the political regime in the US changes (wouldn’t hold my breath on that, but probably preferable to see before deciding to get bombed into the Stone Age).

US would not have the same limitations attacking them that they do with Iran, they could use their allegedly “limitless”dumb bombs and cause a lot of devastation if it went that way.

[–] TreadOnMe@hexbear.net 26 points 1 day ago

The option was de facto not getting any money or de jure getting something.

The U.S. will not be able to make good on actually getting access to and using all of the oil they have supposedly purchased, while Venezuela gets some extremely needed cash.

It's not a good situation for Venezuela, but not unrecoverable.

[–] Tabitha@hexbear.net 16 points 1 day ago (2 children)

There shall be 6 appeasements before the regional wars combine into the world war. Delcy Rodríguez understands her role as one of the appeasements required to break the seal. The lawnmowers are pointed at the sky, the panthers and tigers yearn for the oil fields. $10/gal should be the least of your worries.

[–] ComradeRat@hexbear.net 4 points 1 day ago

I visited the astral marxism plane and Marx himself, filled to the brim with dialectical energy, told me that this is true!

[–] infuziSporg@hexbear.net 3 points 1 day ago

$10/gal should be the least of your worries.

there is no need to be upset

[–] starkillerfish@hexbear.net 11 points 1 day ago

He ear is exceedingly maoist / leftcom on Venezuela

[–] cristian64@reddthat.com 9 points 1 day ago

"Guerra de guerrillas" is what the people in Venezuela will need to go for to protect their resources from the pedophile thieves.

[–] chgxvjh@hexbear.net 7 points 1 day ago

I think she can do both

[–] BeUnique@lemmy.zip -2 points 1 day ago (5 children)

Shocker. The corrupt Maduro regime is doing shady shit while the Venezuelan people starve.

[–] john_brown@hexbear.net 3 points 13 hours ago (1 children)
[–] IranOuttaOil@hexbear.net 2 points 11 hours ago

We need the mamdani wa wa wa emoji

[–] Johnny_Arson@hexbear.net 15 points 1 day ago

You do realize the US kidnapped Maduro right? There is no such thing as the "Maduro regime" its just the government of Venezuela you racist twit.

[–] EmmaGoldman@hexbear.net 15 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Hey look, gang, this lemmitor hasn't engaged with news or reality in at least a calendar year!

countdown

[–] Johnny_Arson@hexbear.net 8 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

hasn't engaged with news or reality in at least a calendar year!

Believe it or not it is way way funnier than that.

Behold https://lemmy.zip/comment/28211288

[–] EmmaGoldman@hexbear.net 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] Johnny_Arson@hexbear.net 7 points 1 day ago

Right lol? Just an incomprehensible tangled mass of brainworms

[–] Renin@hexbear.net 7 points 1 day ago

Please go on and explain to everyone who the real Marxists in Venezuela are and how can we support the movement.

And why is the mainstream media narrative demonizing their own puppet who is selling out her country, what's up with that? Please elaborate.

[–] SorosFootSoldier@hexbear.net 6 points 1 day ago

[wet fart sounds]