askchapo

Boots on the ground. I'm all in. Something ever happens.

I could imagine they do try some paratroops, but nothing meant to hold territory

It'd be stupid as all hell and has no chance of working out well

However, that sentence could also have just as easily applied to starting the whole damn war to begin with and they did it anyways so what do I know

After Russia did the thing in 2022 I'm not saying "nah that's stupid" ever again

It'd be a very stupid thing to do but Trump is very stupid so. It's that vs. TACO.

Ken Klippenstein says his sources are saying bluff

https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/is-a-ground-war-with-iran-imminent

I don't see it, at least not a full scale invasion. It's not like a lot of other questionable moves the US has made lately in that there's no real path to victory. Say they manage to occupy some random island in the strait, then what? The rest of it is still blockaded, gas prices stay high, and they haven't accomplished anything.

We might see special forces blow up some stuff just so Trump can say that there were actually boots on the ground, but I don't think it'll go further than that. Honestly, I don't see how this ends other than a US withdrawal or nukes.

Yes.

Whenever you want to know what will happen with American politics just think of the most foolish thing you can possibly imagine and that's the thing most likely to happen.

Nah, I'd bet more on US involving itself more on Lebanon, unless they're that dumb.

Yes, Trump would absolutely fall victim to the most famous of the classic blunders.

I struggle to imagine it happening because it would be a catastrophe like the US has never known. If those in charge have even the small modicum of sense they sometimes demonstrate, they'll find some bullshit way to declare victory and then stop attacking. Otherwise, JDPON Don is real.

Yes but if a full invasion takes place it will only be because a limited incursion failed and the US felt forced into it.

I can certainly see a certain logic in them trying to seize one of two things from the US perspective to get a win:

1. Karg island, the oil, everyone knows this, no need to discuss further. They might also take a coastal city instead or try to because it would be easier and they think give them a staging ground for control of Karg (denying units there resupply or something).

2. The nuclear materials. Marmite I think said this and I agree it would probably be the thinking of those in power. The US started this because some of them believed the Iranians would get a nuke. Now with the leader holding back getting a nuke dead they're incredibly paranoid about it so they need to get those nuclear materials to prevent Iran racing to get several nukes before the US and zionists have a chance to re-arm or really apply economic pressure over time. So the plan would be they send in their marines plus SOF force, secure the area best they can and begin excavating with air-dropped heavy equipment that they plan to just leave when they pull out and probably explosives. Their plans would be either to actually extract the material or perhaps if that's not feasible they could also bring them with a nuclear weapon or two, drill a bit, insert the nuclear weapon, evac, detonate and fully entomb the materials by using nukes to collapse the bunker facilities they are in and scatter the materials within the remains making recovery expensive, time-consuming, and very hazardous for the Iranians as well as very observable by the west. They could then claim the radiation in the area is from an Iranian booby trap or whatever lie they care to state.

They then declare victory, claim the Iranian nuclear threat is neutralized and try for a ceasefire or some sort of compromise. If that fails because the Iranians don't go for it they're kind of stuck committing to a larger ground invasion which will take months to build up to. During which the US economy will be in tatters. Unless Iran stops themselves after the 40 days of mourning and accepts partial fulfillment of their demands. I can say that Democrats are increasingly likely to take at least one house of Congress in the mid-terms as a result of this fiasco, higher gas prices, other problems.

All I have to add is we'll see what happens when the markets close tomorrow

If the dipshits actually dare and go through with it, then we're gonna witness US KIA levels not seen since WW2, entire units will be gutted and the US military could experience an unprecedented morale failure

Iran for the most part will be fine, most of the urban centers are far to the north of anywhere the Americans could conceivably approach logistically, so the ground invasion will be defined by Iranian drone swarms decimating American units bogged down on some sandy shore or hilly outcrop

I just don't see how the US military can absorb mass casualties of the scale an invasion would cost, considering how universally terrible the morale and mental health of the US military is even in normal conditions

Yes

https://xcancel.com/Acyn/status/2036963832502055229

Trump: We make the greatest military equipment… you got to make it faster, got to make more of it because we need it. We had an attack. 100 missiles were shot by Iran at a very important thing that we had. I won't tell you what it was for certain reasons. This element of importance.

At this point I think troops on the ground is an inevitability mostly because the US doesn't have the munitions to sustain this war for as long as they need to. A couple different thoughts here.

First, the US has one overriding need in the war: open the Strait. As we all know, Iran is pressing the economic nuke button and it's going to explode in everyone's faces, especially the west. It will prompt instability across the world in all the places the US wants it least: Europe, Latin American comprador states, the Gulf monarchies, the East Asian US military outposts occasionally referred to as Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. Revolutions are on the table in Latin America. US economic collapse, etc, etc. We all know the costs of Iran exerting control over the Strait. It's the most significant problem BY FAR for the US, since all of the empire's adventurism in West Asia is very specifically about This Thing Not Happening. There can be no US victory here without the Strait open to the flow of Arab family dictatorship oil - anything else is a worst case scenario defeat.

Second, opening it simply WILL NOT happen through an air campaign. The threshold for keeping it closed on Iran's part is so low - make Shaheds or the speedboat equivalent and be willing to use them. That's all that's required. The US hasn't knocked down this capacity substantially even before we account for the massive stores of drones they've got stored all around the country. The US would need to be able to maintain this pace for years, not months. Years of constant air campaigns launched from distant bases and rickety aircraft carriers on overstrained airframes with coked-out low morale pilots and expensive munitions. Though the close-up bombs are essentially infinite, the stand-off munitions are dwindling much more rapidly than they can be produced.

Third, therefore, the only way to actually open the Strait is to put in place a comprador government in Iran. The Israelis want state collapse, but that actually wouldn't meet the US objectives, because the endless militant factions that would emerge could just as easily keep the Strait closed to extract concessions or simply to punish the rest of the world for destroying their country. So the US needs to force actual surrender. That could be through a years long campaign (which we know the US is less able to withstand than Iran) or through successfully pulling off a Venezuela. But Trump fundamentally misunderstands what happened in Venezuela or why - it's not a comprador government he hand-picked, but a government following its normal succession procedures and carrying out a partial strategic retreat under immense overwhelming power it's unable to repel. However, the Golden Warfighters will continue to believe they can go in and kidnap Araghchi and Khamenei and whoever else to eventually get to Their Guy. But there is no Their Guy as long as Iran as a nation retains the capacity to resist. Delcy Rodriguez is not Their Guy, she just doesn't have any other choice but to surrender oil control - internally, the revolution remains intact. Iran has the choice to keep the Strait closed.

So the contradictions compel the US to further military entanglement. Retreat is surrendering the Strait and the political foundation for control over it. A gigantic mega epic spec ops beardy boy attack might kidnap and kill some Iranian leaders, but mostly it'll get all the US's best and most fanatical dudes wasted just like Azov in Ukraine. The US at that point can decide to push harder and attempt a larger-scale land invasion, but they'll all just get blown up on the way through Iraq. They can push through that, but it's the sort of thing that turns a US war into a political mass movement and threatens the foundation of the whole system (before even accounting for the economic disaster!). Eventually, the US will be forced to make the choice all empires do at this stage - surrender control over that valuable distant land and retrench around your closer, more pliable vassals. Decline and contraction are an inevitabilty, and boots on the ground are the next important step to make that happen.

its gonna be like command and conquer when you try to drop paratroopers inside the enemies defenses and the plane gets blown out of the sky before anyone can even get out.

then the plane doesn't even fall onto anything important.

I'd say it's 50/50 between Trump TACOing and Pete Hegseth dragging us into drunken oblivion. So place your Polymarket bets wisely.

https://open.substack.com/pub/kenklippenstein/p/is-a-ground-war-with-iran-imminent

If you squint, an invasion seems inevitable. But look closer at the actual state of each force being cited, and a very different picture emerges. How is it possible, for instance, that every news organization from the New York Times on down, can report three ships leaving Japan with the Tripoli group when there were only two? Secrecy. Sloppiness. Sops.

With Trump in charge, one never knows. But even if there were a ground operation against Kharg Island, it would most likely involve Army Rangers and special operations forces, Green Berets and Navy SEALs — not some conventional ground assault à la Normandy. The idea of the U.S. Marines storming the beaches while the 82nd Airborne drops on parachutes from above is a cable news fever dream.