this post was submitted on 26 Mar 2026
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Thing is they can't look weak. They NEED to win. An L here basically completely destroys the myth of global American power projection.
The only way to reopen the strait is by force, and it can't be done through the air.
I mean, it does and it doesn't, because it's a somewhat unique situation due to Iran's geography
Like any other country (other than Russia or China) they'd be able to just keep bombing forever. But woops they chose to antagonize the country that can press the off switch to global civilization, which is also built like a fortress thanks to its topography
One thing that can’t be underestimated is the sheer strength of American soft power and their quite literal power projection through rhetoric and culture, and Trump is the cream of that crop at creating narratives and bending reality to the country’s will. I honestly do see a way America just decides to abandon the middle east, declares victory with all evidence pointing to the contrary, while everyone follows along for at least another 20 Years
I think Trump's best opportunity to save face is to wait for Iran to destroy all of its current targets, they cool down on their own once a sense of strategic secturity is accomplished, and then Trump characterizes this as winning a deal.
Israel and military types that love those US bases are the main things standing in the way of this.
But can't they just do a terror attack, get some fake concession (like Iran "acquiescing to opening the strait," but it's just because the US has stopped attacking) and declare victory?
Why would Iran agree to that?
Maybe I'm misunderstanding something, but I thought the main point of the strait closure was to put pressure on the US and Israel to stop with their aggression, so if they do stop with their aggression, the strait can be opened again. Of course, Iran would not agree to characterizing it as a concession, but the western media establishment can just claim that it's Iran lying to save face when really it's the west doing so.
At this point Iran's demands are for a complete US withdrawal from the region, because they have object permanence and know that an agreement to simply stop the active conflict is inherently temporary and will be broken again essentially at random.
Ah alright, makes sense
Sorry I should have been clearer and less snarky. But yeah this captures my thoughts exactly. Iran has a path to complete expulsion of the US from West Asia and I think they're taking it
Iran's cost benefit ratio is like 1:100, nobody is going to stop blowing up US military equipment when you have an opportunity like that, plus everything they destroy now can't be used in the next air strike or ground invasion or naval blockade. Also the US lies so the next ceasefire is probably an assassination attempt anyways.
True, like we’re not the only smelling blood in the water, which begs the question if Russia and China will step on their throats