Wouldn't this be an incredibly safe bet because it just says "detonation" not "attack?" That would include tests right?
this post was submitted on 04 Mar 2026
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Chapotraphouse
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north korea has the opportunity to do something extremely funny and profitable
nukes Greenland
Polymarket and Kalshi board are the first against the wall
Yes (90%)
No (10%)
It's like this meme, but without any shareholder value
Me going on a dangerous journey into the post-nuclear wastes to claim my polymarket winnings after I correctly predicted when the bombs dropped
finally, we've created the Gambling on Nukes Machine from classic sci-fi cautionary tale, "don't build the Gambling on Nukes Machine"
Interesting bet, there's literally no way to win. If it doesn't happen, you lose the bet. If it does, then the currency has no more value anymore.
If it does, then the currency has no more value anymore.
Depends. Which country would commit to retaliation if the US was depraved enough to nuke Venezuela tomorrow?
So, you saying it's safe to bet against?
The invisible hand of the free market will determine if it is worth the investment to nuke the planet or not. This is the best system humanity can possibly come up with
Can you bet against nuclear weapons being set off in a specific location? Like If I live in Detroit can I bet my life savings against myself dying in a nuclear holocaust in Detroit before 2027?
If I became a celebrity could I bet my life savings against myself specifically dying before a specific date? Would there be any drawback?
are backpack nukes a thing or are the preppers working themselves up over nothing again? cause accidentally calling a hit on yourself is a hell of a way to go
Not yet. This would essentially be an assassination market. We're not there yet, but we are close
If I became a celebrity could I bet my life savings against myself specifically dying before a specific date? Would there be any drawback?
Idk you could probably do it, I just assume this shit to be rediculous.
so that's 1:4 odds on a nuke not going off in 2026? am I interpreting this correctly?
cause if so that seems like easy money. nothing ever happens, after all
A YouTube comment said nuclear tests count. I didn't actually check, though.
I'm not sure how often those happen, maybe it's still easy money
If a nuke does go off, there is a high chance that I'm not gonna care about my polymarket account.
Other way around i assume, 22% odds a nuke does go off
That still does seem awfully high
Sure, but everything Pete Hegseth is saying is very nuke coded
that would be 4:1, not 1:4
As someone who watched the Fallout show a while ago this feels very Fallout 
Life imitates art
If I ever get the chance to make my Fallout game, Fallout: Great Midwest, I will have to put a reference to this in it
I already have the Vault-Tec executive board be the villains, having started the war by bribing several higher-ups into false-flagging a nuclear attack, and attempt to utilize their superior position to achieve their ultimate goal
Rebuilding the world as their corporate subsidiary, using the technology developed in the Vaults to both extend their own lives and to subjugate any survivors they can get their hands on
Oh, and the Vault-Tec Executive Vault is underneath Lake Michigan and you can flood it to kill them all
Fallout: Great Midwest
Fallout: Tactics II. it is IMPERATIVE women in the brotherhood of steel wear metal catsuits. you're in for a heap of trouble harmonizing the vault storyline with the fact the BOS went all the way to NORAD already. unless you do a prequel
I follow Mad Max rules when it comes to Fallout
This is the tale of the one they called the Warlord, who went up against the factions of the Great Midwest and came out victorious
Canonicity is fine as long as it doesn't get in the way of the story
but the whole story is the story. being inconsistent just makes everything worse.
you wouldn't fuck up a novel for one chapter.
you wouldn't fuck up a chapter for one page.
you wouldn't fuck up a page for one sentence.
why would you fuck up three books for one book?
Because none of the books were written by the same people
They already don't follow each other closely and let's be frank, the Bethesda Fallout games are dogshit anyway
Tactics was more whitewashing of the Brotherhood of Steel and the less said about Fallout: BoS the better
I want to tell a brand new story with new ideas so that we don't get the same shit with Star Wars where it's just the same story told over and over
I want to tell a brand new story with new ideas
ok so that shouldn't be in the fallout universe then?
Star Wars where it's just the same story told over and over
i've read a hundred something star wars books that's only an accurate description of the films and everybody thinks the prequels and sequels are bad 
ok so that shouldn't be in the fallout universe then?
Except there's loads of interesting concepts and ideas that you could do in the Fallout universe, but it always boils down to the Brotherhood and/or the Enclave. All sorts of groups would form in the aftermath of a devastating war and yet, it's always the fascists in power armor that get the attention. (I wonder why that would be?) 
I've read a hundred something star wars books
And yet, most of those are now no longer canonical and instead of coming up with new ideas, they're just skimming them to bring back the stuff that people liked
If being a comic book enthusiast has taught me anything, it's that canonicity is a trap. Hew too closely and your work becomes repetitive, you have to step away to make a mark.
Imagining fighting your way thru Navy Pier in Chicago to get to the 'flood the vault' lever.
Pure catharsis
Though I imagined it more like sneaking in through a secret entrance hidden inside of a ersatz The Bean
Be on the lookout for any oddly specific guesses with high value bets
The United States has collectively lost its mind
