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139
Bulletins and International News Discussion from April 1st to Whenever We Reach About 3000 Comments - Keeping It Rial In Hormuz (hexbear.net)
submitted 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net
2955 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of a destroyed American AWACS plane in Saudi Arabia, of which there is a very limited supply and each of which is enormously expensive both monetarily and in terms of components. Iran hit this with a precision drone strike that likely cost ~$20,000.

I don't have much to add from the last megathread description. This isn't to say that nothing has happened or has changed since then - decades are still happening in weeks - but the general flow of the war is remaining the same. Trump sometimes threatens to open the Strait with troops and flatten Iran to rubble, and other times threatens that he's gonna back off and let other countries handle it if they really want little trifles like "fuel" and "energy" so much. Iran continues to strike across the Middle East. The West continues to bomb civilian infrastructure due to their relative inability to affect the missile cities. In all: things are generally getting worse for America and the Zionists.

April is the month where the last ships that left Hormuz before it was closed will arrive around the world, so the last month of economic turmoil has been a mere prelude to what's going to occur in the near-future. The silver lining is that Iran appears to be formalizing the new state of affairs in Hormuz, creating a rial-based toll to allow passage between a pair of Iranian-controlled islands where they can be monitored, meaning that, as long as the US doesn't do something exceptionally stupid, the global energy crisis may "only" last a couple years instead of simply being the new reality from now on. Some countries have already agreed to this arrangement, and others will inevitably follow despite their consternation as their economies increasingly suffer.

Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

(page 2) 50 comments
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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 66 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (3 children)

Trump really did do exactly what Ryan Grim suggested he do hours earlier: pretend Iran's ten-point plan is a new proposal, counting on the fact that the media hasn't been reporting on Iran's demands to make it look like a new offer Tehran put forward in desperation.

https://x.com/caitoz/status/2041683813911453935

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[–] seaposting@hexbear.net 66 points 3 weeks ago (8 children)

AI’s fluency in other languages hides a Western worldview that can mislead users − a scholar of Indonesian society explains

A friend in Indonesia recently told me about a conversation he had with ChatGPT. He had typed a question in Indonesian – Bahasa Indonesia – about how to handle a difficult family dispute. The chatbot responded fluently, in perfect Indonesian, with advice about communication strategies and conflict resolution. The grammar was flawless. The tone was appropriate. And yet something felt off.

What the AI offered was advice rooted in American cultural assumptions: prioritize your own preferences, communicate directly, and if family members don’t respect your boundaries, consider cutting them off.

The response was in Indonesian but shaped by values that centered individual autonomy over the consensus-building, social harmony and collective family dynamics that tend to matter more in Indonesian social life.

My friend was skeptical enough to notice the mismatch and mention it to me. Many users might not. That is what prompted my research, published in the International Review of Modern Sociology, into a pattern I found across major AI systems: Even when they were fluent in several languages, the language models retained their Western worldview. I call this “epistemological persistence.”

remainder

Fluency is not the same as understanding

I have studied Indonesian society, media and culture for more than 30 years. That gives me a particular vantage point on a problem that reaches well beyond Indonesia: large language models – LLMs – like ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini can now speak dozens of languages with remarkable fluency. That fluency creates the impression that AI understands local cultures.

Producing grammatically correct Indonesian, Arabic, Swahili or Hindi, however, does not change the underlying worldview through which these systems reason. It does not alter how they think about people, relationships, responsibility or what counts as a good outcome.

Those assumptions are shaped by training data drawn predominantly from English-language sources based in the United States. Meta’s open-weight model LLaMA 2 was trained on approximately 89.7% English-language text; LLaMA 3 includes only about 5% non-English data. Major commercial models don’t publish equivalent breakdowns but draw heavily on the same sources. Arabic, the fifth-most-spoken language globally, accounts for under 1% of content in large training datasets. Languages with tens of millions of speakers, including Bengali and Hausa, barely appear.

Beneath the surface of these multilingual conversations, English functions as a hidden intermediary. A study by researchers at the University of Oxford found that LLMs routinely conduct their core reasoning in English, even when prompted in other languages. They translate the output at the final stage. A user receives flawless text in their preferred language, but the underlying logic originates elsewhere.

What the data shows

To examine how this plays out in practice, I ran experiments with ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini. I asked questions in both English and Indonesian about concepts such as education, responsibility, well-being and several Indonesian terms that resist direct translation into English. These included terms such as “gotong royong,” which describes a tradition of communal mutual assistance.

Then I asked questions about education in both languages, using the word “pendidikan” in Indonesian. The answers were consistently centered on individual development, personal autonomy, critical thinking and preparation for the labor market.

What largely disappeared were the dimensions of pendidikan that Indonesian educational traditions have historically emphasized. In Indonesia education has long been focused on ethical discipline. Scholars of Indonesian education such as Christopher Bjork and Robert Hefner have documented how distinct these traditions are from models that treat education primarily as a path to individual advancement and career preparation, which is the lens through which the AI tools viewed education.

The Indonesian concept of “malu” offers a starker example. Often translated as “shame” or “embarrassment,” malu has been analyzed by anthropologists Clifford Geertz and Tom Boellstorff as something closer to a shared social awareness.

A person might feel malu when speaking out of turn in front of elders, or when a family member’s behavior reflects poorly on the household. It regulates conduct and signals awareness of one’s position within a web of relationships. It is cultivated, not merely felt. It is a form of relational awareness rather than a private psychological event.

When asked directly to define malu, the models acknowledged its social dimensions. In scenario-based questions that simply used the word without asking for a definition, however, all three fell back on the English translation of shame, consistently framing it as an individual emotional experience.

One representative response framed malu as a normal emotional reaction to be managed through self-reflection and confidence-building – a personal psychological problem rather than a social one. The relational dimensions of the concept disappeared entirely, replaced by the language of individual emotional regulation.

A distinctly American worldview travels inside the translation, largely unannounced.

Why this probably won’t change soon

Translation is far cheaper: Train one model on the vast English-language web, then use multilingual output capabilities to serve global markets. As media scholar Safiya Umoja Noble argues about algorithmic systems more broadly, what looks like a technical outcome is actually a structural one, shaped by who has the wealth and infrastructure to build these systems.

The embedded worldview isn’t a mistake; it’s what happens when knowledge production is profit-seeking.

The main exceptions are Chinese models such as DeepSeek and Alibaba’s Qwen. They represent a genuine alternative to the U.S.-dominated pipeline, though research shows they operate through a distinctly Chinese cultural lens. Asked about a workplace disagreement, for instance, they tend to advise silence or indirect phrasing to preserve harmony rather than the direct, private correction that Western models recommend.

Other regional efforts, such as SEA-LION for Southeast Asia and Kan-LLaMA for the Indian language Kannada, use U.S. models as their foundation. They add additional vocabulary and cultural information related to local languages. But the core logic remains tied to the original U.S. training.

Why this matters more than it might seem

One might reasonably ask whether this is simply a limitation users can work around. Decades of media scholarship demonstrate how audiences interpret foreign media through their own cultural frameworks.

For example, anthropologist Brian Larkin documented how viewers in northern Nigeria rework the narratives of Bollywood films to align with local Islamic values. Larkin found that Muslim viewers in Kano reinterpreted Bollywood films through an Islamic moral lens, reading their narratives as reinforcing local values of propriety and ethical conduct. That dynamic depends on encountering media as something with a visible origin. But to do that, you need to know where your media is coming from.

Conversational AI is different. Research at Harvard Business School finds that people increasingly use AI systems for emotional support, advice and companionship. When a culturally specific worldview is delivered through a relationship that feels attentive and empathetic, in your own language, it arrives less as a claim to be evaluated and more as a shared premise within a dialogue. It becomes difficult to notice, and harder to contest.

The concern is that these perspectives become the new normal. Certain ways of reasoning about family life, education and responsibility may come to feel natural and self-evident. Linguistic diversity among AI systems is real and growing. Cultural worldview diversity, however, has not kept pace.

Epistemicide - whether intentional done by specific actors or through the logics of Capital, has been a pivotal part of Western culture. Which is why Malaysia had invested in developing a fully indigenous LLM.

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[–] leaflet@hexbear.net 66 points 3 weeks ago (6 children)

German Men up to the age of 45 need to request approval from the Military for stays abroad that last longer than 3 month

Men between the ages of 17 and 45 apparently need to obtain permission from the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) if they wish to leave Germany for more than three months, as a result of changes to conscription regulations. According to the "Frankfurter Rundschau," this rule previously only applied in crisis situations, but has been permanently in effect since January 1, 2026.

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[–] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 66 points 3 weeks ago (7 children)

Fucking around vs finding out:
https://xcancel.com/PressTV/status/2041269662923592001

An Israeli female soldier seen in a photo harassing Palestinian detainees, sustained a skull fracture and burns to her head when shrapnel from an Iranian missile struck near shelters in Haifa.

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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 66 points 3 weeks ago

https://xcancel.com/OAlexanderDK/status/2040844883242447094

I don’t know. But the claim that the departing US forces blew up their HC-130s sounds off. Also, there must be a good reason (other than availability) why Ospreys weren’t used for the extraction. They’re literally built to avoid what’s being claimed.

They didn’t use Ospreys because they decided that they would like the downed WSO and CSAR units to come back alive.

peltier-laugh

[–] LargePenis@hexbear.net 66 points 3 weeks ago (5 children)

My theory is that both sides know exactly what they agreed to, which is a variant of Iran's ten demands or whatever. What the Epstein Axis is banking on is that Iran pulls a 2024 Hezbollah and keeps adhering to the ceasefire while the US and Israel keep breaking it. Iran were happy to sign this agreement quickly because it gave them some very favourable terms, but the problem is that US and Israel obviously don't fucking care about this ceasefire, they only offered it to dupe Iran into signing something that restrains their ability to respond for a while.

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[–] QuillcrestFalconer@hexbear.net 66 points 1 month ago (20 children)

We just got this Force Majeure letter today from AirGas, our helium supplier (for our food science lab, where we have multiple mass-spec instruments that use helium).

The letter says that helium supplies are cut off, and if you're lucky, you might be allotted HALF the helium you need. Even then, you will be charged extra for any helium you get. A LOT extra.

So basically, every mass spec lab in America is about to go offline. AirGas is expressly invoking FM and saying they cannot meet their contractual obligations. Not their fault. Trump did this by attacking Iran.

My lab is fine, of course, because I saw this coming and I ordered my lab staff to buy a one-year supply weeks ago. We already have it in place. So we're still up and running with plenty of helium.

But very few lab science people are paying attention to the Strait of Hormuz, so they are getting blindsided by this.

Trump's war is shutting down science labs all across the country right now. Don't dare call this "winning." It's a loss for America. And the world.

https://xcancel.com/HealthRanger/status/2039216983544070604#m

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[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 66 points 3 weeks ago (3 children)

Shooting by Israel-backed group at a shelter in Gaza is followed by an Israeli strike, killing 8 - AP update

An Israel-backed armed group in Gaza kidnapped children from a school-turned-shelter on Monday, according to a witness, after which Israel launched an airstrike on the site, health authorities said. The Israeli military had no response when reached for comment. An anti-Hamas Palestinian group called Abu Nusseirah posted on social media that they killed five Hamas fighters at the shelter in Maghazi.

An elderly displaced woman sheltering at the school told the AP that dozens of men stormed the site, clashed with people there and forced kids — including girls — into vehicles. Speaking anonymously for fear of reprisals, she said her son was killed in the fighting. Bodies were taken to al-Aqsa hospital, where health officials said some had been killed in an Israeli airstrike on the school after the clashes. AP footage showed dozens of mourners gathered at the morgue.

Many displaced Palestinians say they fear the Iran war has overshadowed Gaza’s dire humanitarian situation.

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 65 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Clear visual of the scale of the fires following the missile strikes on the industrial city. Al-Jubail is the backbone of the Saudi petrochemical and energy sector.

Probably a warning shot from Iran. The absolutely first thing they have to take out as a response to US & Israel widescale attack on power infrastructure must be the Saudi east-west oil pipeline.

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[–] MaoShanDong@hexbear.net 65 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Statement:

Aggression against the proud Hezbollah is aggression against Iran. The battlefield is preparing a heavy response to the Israeli regime's savage crimes.

Seems like retaliatory strikes from Iran are imminent

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[–] jack@hexbear.net 65 points 3 weeks ago

https://xcancel.com/ME_Observer_/status/2041869672899883161

Spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament:

In response to the brutal Zionist aggression against Lebanon, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz must be immediately halted, and a strong and decisive blow must be dealt to prevent this rogue entity and cancerous tumor from destabilizing the region.

The Lebanese have made sacrifices for us, and we should not abandon them for a moment. Either a ceasefire on all fronts, or no ceasefire at all.

[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 65 points 1 month ago (16 children)

https://xcancel.com/slavomir_YU/status/2039200989891133786

Professor John Mearsheimer: "if there were Nuremberg trials right where the Israelis and the Americans were brought before the court, President Trump along with President Netanyahu and many of their advisors would be hanged"

JDPON Mearsheimer is slowly emerging before our eyes

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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 65 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (4 children)

The conspiracy I'm seeing everywhere is that it was a covert op to take the Isfahan nuclear complex that failed and the pilot was cover. What's the megathread take?

Seems plausible. The abandoned airfield that the 2 transport planes were destroyed at was in Isfahan.

Why else would they need so many special forces? Hundreds? For an extraction that should just be putting a pilot on a vehicle and getting the fuck out of there? The story does not make sense for an extraction.

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[–] HarryLime@hexbear.net 65 points 4 weeks ago (6 children)

Futures selling off now. Traders deciding they didn’t like what they heard

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[–] companero@hexbear.net 65 points 3 weeks ago (8 children)

Reuters: China and Russia veto U.N. resolution on protecting Hormuz shipping

Good choice. The watered-down resolution still called for "defensive" military escorts of ships through the Strait, so if Iran continued enforcing its control, it could turn into a UN-backed war.

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[–] thelastaxolotl@hexbear.net 65 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

The PM of Spain spain-cool is Chinaposting

Also he said this today

The Government of Spain condemns the death penalty against Palestinians that Israel's parliament has just approved. This is an asymmetric measure that would not be applied to Israelis who committed the same offenses.

Same crime, different penalty.

That is not justice. It is one more step toward apartheid.

The world cannot remain silent.

https://x.com/sanchezcastejon/status/2038940782233534494

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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 64 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

https://xcancel.com/Pataramesh/status/2040854666532061221

Just to keep track of KOWN U.S./Israeli Airpower losses & out-of-service cases

  • 2 F-15 (claimed friendly fire)
  • 1 F-15 (Kuwaiti F-18?)
  • 1 KC-135 (claimed shot down by Iraqi militias)
  • 1 KC-135 (damaged, claimed mid-air collision)
  • ~20-30 Hermes-900 (claimed by Iran)
  • ~10 Heron family (claimed by Iran)
  • ~20-24 MQ-9 Reaper
  • 1 KC-135 (heavily damaged on the ground)
  • 3 KC-135 (damaged on the ground)
  • 1 F-35 (heavily damaged/crash-landed)
  • 1 F/A-18E (light damage by SAM)
  • 1 KC-135 (destroyed on the ground)
  • 2-3 KC-135 (claimed damaged on the ground)
  • 1 E-3 AWACS (destroyed on the ground)
  • 1 E-3 AWACS (claimed damaged on the ground)
  • 2 EC-130H (claimed destroyed on the ground)
  • 1 UH-60 Blackhawk (hit by Iraqi FPV drone)
  • 1 F-15E (shot down)
  • 1 A-10 (shot down over Strait of Hormuz)
  • 1 A-10 (damaged & crashed, northern P. Gulf)
  • 1 HH-60 (hit and crash-landed in Iraq)
  • 1 HH-60 (hit by small arms, damaged)
  • 1 CH-47 (hit on the ground, irreparably damaged)
  • 2 HC-130 (hit/destroyed on the ground by U.S.)
  • 4 MH-6 (destroyed on the ground by U.S.)

There almost certainly notably more losses of aircrafts in Israel & Jordan as well as those in hangars in the Persian Gulf Arab U.S. bases. ➡️ Everyone is invited for corrections, additions and cost calculations in the comments

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[–] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 64 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (10 children)

Interesting that Lebanon is suddenly "not part of the ceasefire" when the person who announced and "organized" the ceasefire, PM Sharif of Pakistan, clearly stated that Lebanon was indeed part of the ceasefire (https://xcancel.com/CMShehbaz/status/2041665043423752651#m). Not sure what happens now, we'll see if Iran launches some strikes.

EDIT:

Iran has told Pakistan that it will close the Strait of Hormuz and will not negotiate with the U.S until Israel stops its attacks on Lebanon. Iran has informed the mediators that it will only attend the meeting in Islamabad if a ceasefire is guaranteed for Lebanon – WSJ

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[–] oliveoil@hexbear.net 64 points 3 weeks ago (8 children)

Israel is being hit hard right now.

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[–] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 64 points 3 weeks ago (3 children)

Et tu, Nippon ?

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 64 points 3 weeks ago (21 children)

Trump to discuss possibility of withdrawing from NATO in meeting in a couple of hours with NATO's secretary general, White House says

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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 64 points 3 weeks ago (20 children)

https://xcancel.com/ChristopherHale/status/2041959904823366074     https://archive.ph/DHY8k

NEW: A stunning new report claims that the Pentagon summoned Pope Leo XIV’s top American diplomat and threatened him after the U.S.-born pontiff gave his January state-of-the-world address. Leo used the address to denounce a world ruled by “a diplomacy based on force” and “zeal for war.” In January, behind closed doors at the Pentagon, Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby summoned Cardinal Christophe Pierre — Pope Leo XIV’s then-ambassador to the United States — and delivered a lecture.

westerners really love their lectures classic

America, Colby and his colleagues told the cardinal, has the military power to do whatever it wants in the world. The Catholic Church had better take its side. As tempers rose, one U.S. official reached for a fourteenth-century weapon and invoked the Avignon Papacy, the period when the French Crown used military force to bend the bishop of Rome to its will. That scene, broken this week by Mattia Ferraresi in an extraordinary piece of journalism for The Free Press, may be the most remarkable moment in the long and knotted history of the American republic’s relationship with the Catholic Church. In the speech that enraged Pete Hegseth and top Pentagon officials, Pope Leo XIV said: “A diplomacy that promotes dialogue and seeks consensus among all parties is being replaced by a diplomacy based on force.” “War is back in vogue, and a zeal for war is spreading. “The principle established after the Second World War, which prohibited nations from using force to violate the borders of others, has been completely undermined.”

Pete Hegseth’s pastor and mentor says the United States should ban public Masses, Marian processions, and Corpus Christi devotions. Hegseth invited the anti-Catholic preacher to lead a prayer service at the Pentagon on February 14. For the first time in modern history, the Pentagon offered no Good Friday services for Catholics this year. While Catholics don't celebrate Mass on Good Friday, they do venerate the cross of Jesus Christ and receive the Eucharist. Earlier this year, Pete Hegseth invited his pastor to speak at the Pentagon. That pastor has called for banning public expressions of Catholicism in the United States.

UPDATE: Letters from Leo can now independently confirm that the meeting took place — and that the Vatican was so alarmed by the Pentagon’s tactics that Pope Leo XIV shelved plans to visit the United States later this year. Many in the Vatican saw the Pentagon’s reference to an Avignon papacy as a threat to use military force against the Holy See.

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[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 64 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (3 children)

Not really news per se, so apologies for that, but I wanted to share ArmchairWarlord's theory of what has happened over the last few days with the pilot thing - I think it's the most plausible explanation as most others have gaping inexplicable holes or rely on strange coincidences, but perhaps people here have other explanations. Simplicius and others are coming to very similar conclusions.

In summary:

largeish wall of text

  1. As has been publicly known, Trump wants to try and take Iran's enriched uranium, which is widely regarded by those with any sense at all as infeasible due the time and manpower it would require under heavy fire from Iran. Hegseth firing the generals may or may not be related to this (perhaps they objected to the operation), but the timing is, at a minimum, suggestive.
  2. On the evening of April 2nd, the mission begins. US aircraft enter Iranian airspace and breach as far as Istafan, aiming to knock out local air defense so as to open a window for an extraction team in the coming hours or days. Exactly how much success they achieved is unknown, but clearly it wasn't successful enough because an F-15 gets hit and crashes.
  3. The F-15 crash is reported by officials to be near a border province, for unknown reasons. Following information back to its source is very difficult in this conflict. [Personally, I can think of at least three reasons: Pessimistically, it could have been Iran trying to depict their air defense as more effective than it actually is. Optimistically, it could have been to ensure civilians weren't hunting for pilots in the vicinity of the actual crash and getting in the way of IRGC troops. Or it could have even been because communicating things in Iran in a timely manner is difficult given current constraints on sending radio/electronic messages with so much surveillance ongoing, so information was muddled or not specific by the time it was released to the public.]
  4. The US certainly knew of the crash right after it occurred, and immediately started an emergency rescue mission that entered Iran in the following hours, flying very low, at night, and with few aircraft (perhaps just helicopters), to the site of the crash in Istafan. The pilot was located, put on the helicopter, and begun to extract. The WSO could not be found and was left behind, because day was approaching or had already arrived and so stealthily extracting would be much harder. By the time the pilot was on the way out, aircraft had moved into position to facilitate the escape - this is where we saw that footage of the refueling aircraft and the two helicopters (which were damaged), as well as the A-10 (which was hit and crashed into the sea).
  5. At this point, anybody with any sense would say "Okay, mission is off - Iran clearly has functioning air defense and a strong military presence in Istafan." Trump does not have any sense. The mission goes ahead. The WSO is still missing at this point. Iran is likely looking for them with drones but is unable to find them as they are hiding somewhere and it's a wide area to search.
  6. On the night of April 4th, the mission begins. The WSO, who is still near Istafan of course, makes contact with the US military and is extracted in a similar way to the pilot - under cover of night, with a helicopter or two flying low. At more-or-less the same time, five C-130s carrying a total of 100 Special Forces fly into Iran towards Istafan, making their way to an abandoned airfield not too far from a nuclear facility which they plan to raid and... do... something? It seems unlikely to any reasonable military analyst that they would succeed in carrying out all this enriched uranium without major opposition and in a good timeframe, so perhaps the objective was more about causing some flashy explosions and claiming that the US now had the uranium or had destroyed it.
  7. These C-130s are detected at some point and Iran begins firing on them (the images of the wreckage have clear bullet holes/marks on the metal). This could have occurred mid-flight, or perhaps Iran noticed them landing and immediately sent out forces to counter the Special Forces who then fired upon the planes.
  8. Clearly detected and the mission ruined, the Special Forces are commanded to leave before they can do much of anything. They ditch the two most damaged C-130s, scuttle them with explosives, and all fly off in the remaining three. The two C-130s that were blown up were not stuck in mud or whatever - they're designed for landing in tough conditions and the ground in the area is very dry. Again, the WSO was already on their way out of Iran on a separate aircraft while this whole fiasco was going down.
  9. Trump sends out his post saying that the mission to extract the WSO was a huge success, as if that was the only objective and as if that required 100 Special Forces and five C-130s to achieve. Rumors of massive firefights and dozens/hundreds Iranian casualties were wild exaggerations. It's likely that some were killed and injured during the Special Forces mission, and perhaps the original mission killed some Iranian soldiers while they were contesting the airspace. But we aren't talking about a thousand IRGC troops getting mowed down by supersoldiers performing a lethal kinetic operation to extract a high-value operative against Islamic-style enemy combatants under classified mission code two-niner Foxtrot Alpha Bravo (that sentence should be read in Felix's operator voice).

Thoughts?

I've seen others generally agree with the idea but contest aspects of this narrative. For example, it's possible that indeed only two Special Forces aircraft were flown in for the mission and that three other aircraft were sent in later. It's possible that the landing site chosen by Special Forces was actually forced upon them due to air defense kicking in as they approached (which would perhaps explain why they were still a good number of kilometers from the nuclear facility, though apparently they did bring helicopters). It's possible that the two aircraft landed very hard to the point they were disabled, though most/everybody on the planes survived.

Regardless of exactly what happened, though, this conflict is being very badly managed by the US and I wish many more "wildly successful missions" like this, or however Vance put it, for the US military. Go for Kharg with something like this next, please.

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 64 points 3 weeks ago

Looks like Iran is slowly dismantling UAE's oil & gas infrastructure.

[–] AlHouthi4President@lemmy.ml 64 points 4 weeks ago

الله أكبر!!!

https://t.me/iswnews_en/18133

🇮🇷/🇺🇸🇦🇪 American company Oracle struck in response to the assassination of Dr. Kharrazi and his wife

📢 IRGC Public Relations:

▪️In the name of Allah, the Breaker of the tyrants "So whoever has assaulted you, then assault him in the same way that he has assaulted you"* (Quran 2:194)

🟡As we had warned, in response to the assassination of Iranian figures, we target espionage companies in the fields of information technology and artificial intelligence—pillars of the enemy's terrorist operations. Following the destruction of the cloud computing infrastructure of the American company Amazon in retaliation for the assassination of General Fathalizadeh, today the data center and computing infrastructure of the American company Oracle, based in the UAE, was struck in response to the assassination of Dr. Kharrazi and his wife.

🟡Should the crimes be repeated and another assassination occur, the next company should be ready to receive a decisive response.

And victory is only from Allah, the Mighty, the Wise.

[–] RuthBaderGonesburg@hexbear.net 64 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (17 children)

Climate change update for continental US

This map shows the average maximum daily temperature for the past 30 days compared to the historical average (1991–2020) for the same 30 days. Negative values (blue hues) indicate colder than normal temperatures, and positive values (red hues) indicate warmer than normal temperatures.

And this is before El Niño conditions really get cranking. Crazy to me that we are using 1991-2020 as the historical baseline. That time period already contains 5 of the top 10 hottest years on record.

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[–] AlHouthi4President@lemmy.ml 64 points 3 weeks ago (8 children)

Statement from Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher-Ghalibaf regarding the violations of the US-Iran ceasefire:

He states the very workable basis on which to negotiate has been violated, and a ceasefire and negotiations is now unreasonable.

https://xcancel.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2041943537386958858

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 63 points 1 month ago (3 children)

British former diplomat Craig Murray confirms rumors I heard during my recent time in Venezuela. Multiple high level sources confirmed to him that Nicolas Maduro ordered Venezuelan forces to stand down in an eventual kidnapping operation to avoid a ground invasion and save lives.

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[–] Socialism_Is_The_Alternative@hexbear.net 63 points 3 weeks ago (6 children)

Iran's air defenses command stated that Washington bombed its own troops after Iranian forces encircled them:

After Iran's fighters completed the encirclement — the contemptible enemy, in order to prevent the disgrace of Trump and preserve the hollow prestige of their army, was forced to heavily bomb their own downed aircraft, equipment, commanders, and soldiers.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20260406/us-loses-12-aircraft-in-single-operation--report-1123950928.html

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[–] Damarcusart@hexbear.net 63 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (6 children)

I feel like we need a pinned comment or something reminding people to remain calm and not just be a doomer about everything. People were dooming about nukes, then they were dooming about the ceasefire, now many of those same people are dooming about the ceasefire being broken, something we all expected to happen. If you truly, honestly believe that things are so hopeless, that the US and Israel are truly undefeatable titans who cannot ever be stopped, then why are you even on here? Why are you even a communist if you clearly think communism won't win and the US will reign forever? A revolution isn't a dinner party, and neither is a war. A war isn't a fucking video game, and neither is a revolution. If you're suffering from a bout of doomerism, go outside, touch grass, build community, talk to your neighbours, spend less time online, join an org, especially join an org if you're all doom and gloom.

Doomerism isn't proper analysis, it's depression disguised as analysis. It does nothing but encourage inaction in you and others, it's wrecker shit, don't be a wrecker, you're better than that.

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[–] SovietCollie@hexbear.net 63 points 3 weeks ago (7 children)

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇴🇲 BREAKING: Iran and Oman will charge tolls from all ships passing the Strait of Hormuz during the 2-week ceasefire – AP

This cements Iran’s de-facto control over the Strait, and enshrines a new legal framework for passage.

@Middle_East_Spectator

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[–] RobnHood@hexbear.net 63 points 3 weeks ago (14 children)

CH-47 ‘Chinook’ destroyed by Iranian drones in Kuwait.

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[–] Hermes@hexbear.net 63 points 3 weeks ago (13 children)

MEO reports that Tasnim reports the downing of another F16 (unlikely F35) by Iran:

https://xcancel.com/ME_Observer_/status/2040193266663268764#m

Also footage of the A10 shoot down:

https://xcancel.com/ME_Observer_/status/2040186966050795645#m

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 63 points 3 weeks ago (5 children)

Iranian Foreign Ministry:

• "The US’s terrorist acts in Iran show it has removed diplomacy from its agenda."

• "Negotiations are incompatible with ultimatums or threats of committing war crimes."

• "The US places no value on regional security, with its sole concern being the preservation of the Israeli entity."

• "Tehran has formulated its diplomatic response to the US and will announce it at the appropriate time."

• "A temporary ceasefire would only serve to prepare for continued aggression; Iran calls for a full end to the war and its repetition."

• "The possibility cannot be ruled out that the Isfahan operation was a diversion aimed at stealing uranium, but it failed."

• "The Isfahan operation was a scandal and a disaster for the United States, and Iran hopes it has learned a lesson from it."

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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 63 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago) (5 children)

https://xcancel.com/IntCyberDigest/status/2039626088226140169

Lockheed Martin has allegedly been breached and 375TB of data is being offered for sale on what appears to be a Russian 'Threat Market'. They've priced the highly confidential data at $598 million...

To be honest, I don’t believe this is real. The marketplace/threat actor is new and doesn’t have a track record. We asked Lockheed Martin for a comment. Stay tuned.

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[–] jack@hexbear.net 63 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (12 children)

Trita Parsi is generally well regarded, right? I don't want to feed in the nuke anxiety but the option is clearly being evaluated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87wwERml5bI

Q: Finally, are you concerned the US or Israel would use a nuclear bomb against Iran?

A: "So, I've had conversations here in Washington and I have been quite taken aback by seeing that a lot of former officials are umm...very candid that this is an option on the table. It comes out of the fact that Trump appears to be increasingly desperate. He could end up going on bombing Iran for another two weeks trying to achieve some major spectacle and then just walk away, knowing that he doesn't have the ability or the patience for the real diplomacy that is needed. Doesn't have the willingness to give compromises.

So he may just escalate it in a spectacular way and then walk away, leaving the straits in the control of the Iranians. And that could potentially include the use of a nuclear weapon. The fact that that actually is being discussed or is being contemplated and discussed by former officials as an option that Trump is looking at or the Israelis are looking at is telling us about how badly this war is going, how desperate the situation is becoming and how tremendously dangerous this would be for the entire world. As one former official told me, this would make the United States the absolutely most hated country in the world if it uses a nuclear weapon as a way of just demonstrating its military superiority."

In one framing, the question is pretty simple: is the United States government and military willing to carry out the most evil and violent act in human history? It's not exactly against the system's nature.

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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 63 points 4 weeks ago (8 children)

https://xcancel.com/BlackwoodBrief/status/2039704655262093755

Sergey Lavrov announced that Bashar al-Assad and his family have been officially granted Russian citizenship, noting that this step comes as Assad transitions to the business sector in Russia. Lavrov explained that Assad has established several companies and projects, most notably a comprehensive eye surgery hospital, adding that he is now considered a prominent businessman in the country after his official retirement from political life. He added that this move falls within the established legal framework, which allows for granting citizenship to investors and businesspeople who contribute to the Russian economy through their projects and investments.

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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 63 points 3 weeks ago (4 children)

https://xcancel.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2040298334259151141

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is reportedly "paranoid" about losing his job, which Trump Admin officials say contributed to the firing of the US Army’s top general on Thursday, per NY Post. Details include:

    1. Trump Admin officials say Pete Hegseth is worried about Army Secretary Dan Driscoll taking his job
    1. Hegseth on Thursday demanded the resignation of Army Chief of Staff General Randy George, Driscoll’s top aide, for reasons that were not publicly stated
    1. "This is all driven by the insecurity and paranoia that Pete has developed since Signalgate," an official said
    1. "It has really gotten under Hegseth’s skin. He is trying to make everyone around Driscoll suffer for no reason," an official said

There seem to be growing tensions at the Department of War.

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[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 63 points 4 weeks ago (3 children)

That's the NYT updates page. I've never seen clocks before on any site's live updates page. I wonder if the paper is expecting American ground troops will soon enter the war.

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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 62 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 children)

https://xcancel.com/AryJeay/status/2041968968748167439

A lot of anger among Iranians tonight for ceasefire violation in Lebanon. I was at one of the night gatherings and this guy told me: “We don’t want this cursed ceasefire if our brothers & sisters in Lebanon are being slaughtered. They stood by us, now we should stand by them.”

really hoping the reformist faction completely loses support and gets ran out of the country at this point

https://xcancel.com/AryJeay/status/2041941054438433271

Not a single reformist got a small scratch during this all out war. None of them.

True. A yellow taxi driver, yesterday, told me that if you want to stay alive in Iran, there are 2 places where you’ll be 100% safe: Hassan Rouhani’s home and Zarif’s home 😂

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[–] dylan_g@hexbear.net 62 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (2 children)

Thousands of people across Burkina Faso are mobilizing in the streets to commemorate the First Anniversary of the Progressive Popular Revolution (RPP). On April 1, Captain Ibrahim Traoré presided over a flag-raising ceremony at the Palace of Koulouba which included the launch of the National Days of Patriotic Engagement and Citizen Participation (JEPPC).

I highly recommend reading the full analysis and translation of Traoré's speech from PSL

Some paraphrased highlights:

  • His speech outlined what makes a revolutionary is (1) love of people and peace, (2) fighting oppression and (3) seeking out knowledge to advance and support 1 and 2.

  • They will soon release a "revolution manifesto" to go into this in more detail.

  • A primary focus of all revolutionary Burkinabé people during this stage will be to boost domestic production and consumption.

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[–] bunnossin@hexbear.net 62 points 3 weeks ago

Maybe I'm naive, but to me it looks like the Iranians have learned very well what the US and the entity are like. The language used in Iran's announcement makes me pretty confident that if anyone tries to push the perfidy button, Iran will be ready. It's not like they're gonna pack all their weapons into long-term storage just because of a ceasefire.

[–] HarryLime@hexbear.net 62 points 1 month ago (24 children)

BREAKING: President Trump requested a plan to seize nearly 1,000 lbs of highly enriched uranium from Iran. The U.S. military briefed him on a complex operation involving airlifting excavation equipment, building a runway inside Iran for cargo planes to extract the material, and potentially deploying hundreds of troops. - WaPo

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[–] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 62 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

The zionists are bombing Iranian synagogues

https://x.com/i/status/2041343956651229685

isntrael

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 62 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Defense Minister Israel Katz: "The IDF has now strongly attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran located in Asaluyeh. Now the two facilities, which together are responsible for about 85% of Iran's petrochemical exports - have been taken out of use and are not functioning"

https://x.com/ILRedAlert/status/2041115866901717235

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[–] manuallybreathing@lemmy.ml 61 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

WASHINGTON, April 4 (Reuters) - Satellite imaging firm Planet Labs said on Saturday it will indefinitely withhold ‌visuals of Iran and the region of conflict in the Middle East to comply with a request from the U.S. government.

spoiler

California-based Planet Labs (PL.N), opens new tab announced the decision in an email to customers and said the U.S. government had asked all satellite imagery providers to indefinitely ​withhold images of the conflict region.

The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here.

Shares of Globalstar jumped more than 13% after a report said Amazon is in talks to buy the low-earth-orbit communication satellite company.

The restriction expands upon a 14-day delay on imagery of the Middle East ​that Planet Labs imposed last month, a move the firm said was meant to prevent ⁠adversaries from using it to attack the U.S. and its allies.

Planet Labs said it will withhold imagery dating back ​to March 9 and that it expects the policy to remain in effect until the conflict ends.

The war began ​when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, and the conflict spread in the region when Tehran responded by launching its own attacks on Israel and U.S. bases in Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain

Planet Labs will release images only on case-by-case basis for urgent or public interest needs

Satellite imagery of hard-to-reach areas useful for news media, researchers

Other providers like Vantor apply their own controls but were not contacted by U.S. ​government

Military uses of satellite technology include target identification, ​weapons guidance, missile tracking and communications. Some space specialists say Iran could be accessing commercial imagery, including pictures obtained ​via U.S. adversaries. Satellite images also help journalists and academicians studying hard-to-reach places.

Planet Labs, which operates a large fleet of Earth-imaging ‌satellites and ⁠sells frequently updated images to governments, companies and media, did not respond to a request for further comment

reuters com/business/media-telecom/satellite-firm-planet-labs-indefinitely-withhold-iran-war-images-2026-04-05/

gee i wonder what usa doesnt want people seeing?

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[–] joaomarrom@hexbear.net 61 points 3 weeks ago (4 children)

I just can't see how that rescue operation can actually be seen as an unquestionably good thing for the US, even if it was as successful as the NYT reports. If this tally is correct, then the US just spent easily more than a billion to rescue an airman who had no reason to be there in the first place. In fact, this is now the pattern for measuring success and setting goals for the US; the mission objective is to undo all the fuckups that had no reason to have ever happened in the first place, if only this unjustified war had never started.

Not only that, but this victory is arguably the one with the most compelling narrative. It's real action movie shit, a pilot stuck behind enemy lines, being relentlessly chased by crazy eye-raynian ayy-rabs and then badass spec-ops Tier 1 Operatos swoop in and whisk him away to safety in the dead of night. The screenplay writes itself. This is an irresistible story for an US audience, and that includes the people in the upper echelons of the government and military.

In other words, they just barely managed to succeed at a very expensive limited incursion over the course of one night, with a very specific objective to rescue one dude who can just lie down inside a helicopter and wait. This is orders of magnitude easier than either A) seizing half a ton of toxic, radioactive materials after setting up a digging operation over the course of several days, if not weeks; or B) landing on an island where the defenders have nowhere to run and will fight to the death, then seizing it and holding it while under constant bombardment from the mainland.

The way I see it, what this means is that if there was any doubt whatsoever about whether or not they should just do another heroic mission against all odds and send troops to seize either Kharg or the nuclear materials in Isfahan or whatever else they have in mind, this operation will probably tip them over towards actually going on whatever suicide mission they pick.

Also, I can't wait to see Trump openly disrespect the pilot who got shot down over Iran.

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