this post was submitted on 04 Oct 2025
148 points (100.0% liked)

news

24510 readers
432 users here now

Welcome to c/news! We aim to foster a book-club type environment for discussion and critical analysis of the news. Our policy objectives are:

We ask community members to appreciate the uncertainty inherent in critical analysis of current events, the need to constantly learn, and take part in the community with humility. None of us are the One True Leftist, not even you, the reader.

Newcomm and Newsmega Rules:

The Hexbear Code of Conduct and Terms of Service apply here.

  1. Link titles: Please use informative link titles. Overly editorialized titles, particularly if they link to opinion pieces, may get your post removed.

  2. Content warnings: Posts on the newscomm and top-level replies on the newsmega should use content warnings appropriately. Please be thoughtful about wording and triggers when describing awful things in post titles.

  3. Fake news: No fake news posts ever, including April 1st. Deliberate fake news posting is a bannable offense. If you mistakenly post fake news the mod team may ask you to delete/modify the post or we may delete it ourselves.

  4. Link sources: All posts must include a link to their source. Screenshots are fine IF you include the link in the post body. If you are citing a Twitter post as news, please include the Xcancel.com (or another Nitter instance) or at least strip out identifier information from the twitter link. There is also a Firefox extension that can redirect Twitter links to a Nitter instance, such as Libredirect or archive them as you would any other reactionary source.

  5. Archive sites: We highly encourage use of non-paywalled archive sites (i.e. archive.is, web.archive.org, ghostarchive.org) so that links are widely accessible to the community and so that reactionary sources don’t derive data/ad revenue from Hexbear users. If you see a link without an archive link, please archive it yourself and add it to the thread, ask the OP to fix it, or report to mods. Including text of articles in threads is welcome.

  6. Low effort material: Avoid memes/jokes/shitposts in newscomm posts and top-level replies to the newsmega. This kind of content is OK in post replies and in newsmega sub-threads. We encourage the community to balance their contribution of low effort material with effort posts, links to real news/analysis, and meaningful engagement with material posted in the community.

  7. American politics: Discussion and effort posts on the (potential) material impacts of American electoral politics is welcome, but the never-ending circus of American Politics© Brought to You by Mountain Dew™ is not welcome. This refers to polling, pundit reactions, electoral horse races, rumors of who might run, etc.

  8. Electoralism: Please try to avoid struggle sessions about the value of voting/taking part in the electoral system in the West. c/electoralism is right over there.

  9. AI Slop: Don't post AI generated content. Posts about AI race/chip wars/data centers are fine.

founded 5 years ago
MODERATORS
all 46 comments
sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[–] Feinsteins_Ghost@hexbear.net 65 points 2 months ago (6 children)

what is predicted to happen when the bubble bursts? A bunch of AI companies suddenly find out they really aren't worth shit, and so every index fund, hedge fund, retirement fund etc on the planet that invested in them loses their shirts and we all end up holding the bag?

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 57 points 2 months ago

The short answer is more capital consolidation at the top. The few companies that survive will gobble up everyone else, and a bunch of people will lose all their savings in the process.

[–] OptimusSubprime@hexbear.net 50 points 2 months ago

we all end up holding the bag

This bubble is massive enough to where it could bankrupt the entire lower and middle income brackets.

At that point, the Buckies the-doohickey come out and hopefully the people do some luigi-dance -TIME, instead of targeting each other.

[–] Cysioland@lemmygrad.ml 45 points 2 months ago

Yeah, it's beyond "too big to fail". They're gonna bail them out like crazy.

[–] BoxedFenders@hexbear.net 42 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

The entire stock market is propped up by the "Magnificent 7", and without their outperformance over the last 2 years the market would be flat. And all of the gains to the Mag 7 stocks have come from increasing AI infrastructure. They're essentially forced to keep spending more or investors will lose confidence and trigger a downward spiral. Of course they will eventually have to show revenue from that investment or the whole thing collapses. To put into context just how much large Nvidia has gotten since ChatGPT was unveiled - its market cap is now larger than GDP of EVERY nation aside from the US, China and Japan. And that's from selling the chips that the hyperscalers (Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Tesla) need for their AI. We are at dystopian sci-fi levels of concentration in the economy now.

[–] hotcouchguy@hexbear.net 36 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

Seems like expropriating the middle class is one of the last (relatively) untapped sources of profit available to the system. There are still a decent number of retired office-workers with maybe $1M in a 401k and maybe half that in home equity. Add in the small business owners and small-time landlords. A lot of the economy is based around siphoning a couple percent here and there out of this group, but at some point they'll get desperate and find a way to take it all at once.

[–] GrouchyGrouse@hexbear.net 31 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Christ is it really down to that? They’re siphoning the last vestiges of what the system had previously paid out during a more equitable time? Oh god lmao

[–] PoY@lemmygrad.ml 9 points 2 months ago

well there's still social security that could be gutted

[–] JohnBrownsBawdy@hexbear.net 6 points 2 months ago

Yeah I’m just waiting for them to figure out how to somehow screw the index investors.

I mean, everything I’ve saved is in low cost index funds, I just assume I’m going g to wind up getting fucked and am powerless to stop it or make any choice that would keep it from happening.

[–] miz@hexbear.net 22 points 2 months ago
[–] GrouchyGrouse@hexbear.net 48 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Capitalism is so logical that the way you stay competitive in an emerging market is to lie to yourself and everyone around you.

[–] woodenghost@hexbear.net 35 points 2 months ago

kelly Too big to bail.

[–] somename@hexbear.net 42 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I am a bit curious about how this bubble will pop, as this isn't just overinvestment into a sector that's not really performing. It's over-investment into a tool to reduce and eliminate labor. The longer they ride this out, the more people will be fired in the name of 'efficiency'. Both to increase profit margins and to sustain the momentum of the bubble itself.

But once it pops, you aren't going to be able to get all those people back. Not immediately. Not to mention longer term losses from people leaving the industry, retiring, or just falling apart from lack of income. It could have big ripple effects on economic recovery post collapse.

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 36 points 2 months ago (1 children)

It's important to keep in mind that a lot of jobs are ultimately bullshit jobs that simply exist to make companies look more valuable to investors. The selection pressures in the current environment favor building Potemkin villages to convince investors to give them money as opposed to actually being profitable in any way.

Incidentally, have a personal anecdote on the subject I can share. I worked for a startup a few years back, and when I was hired it had around 60 people. The app they were making was incredible simple, and in no way justified the size of the company. They were around for about half a decade already, yet they made very little actual revenue with most of the money coming from VC funding. Then the Silicon Valley Bank crashed, and all of a sudden funding started to dry up. As a result, they were forced to shift their business strategy towards being solvent. The company ended up letting go of most people cutting down to around 10 or so which was the realistic number of people needed to develop the product. They're still around today, but their product architecture is much simpler and the size of the company is still much smaller.

I expect we'll see a lot of this happening when the AI bubble pops. Companies will either figure out ways to actually be profitable, or they will simply go under. I expect the latter will be the case for the vast majority because they don't have a viable business model. The crash will result in a huge reserve army of labor being created and the few surviving companies will have little trouble hiring people back. In fact, I expect that the dynamic will significantly shift in favor of the employers are a result.

[–] queermunist@lemmy.ml 21 points 2 months ago (2 children)

It’s important to keep in mind that a lot of jobs are ultimately bullshit jobs that simply exist to make companies look more valuable to investors. The selection pressures in the current environment favor building Potemkin villages to convince investors to give them money as opposed to actually being profitable in any way.

Isn't this in contradiction with the supposed value that generative AI creates for firms? The whole point of the hype bubble is the speculation that they will be able to eliminate jobs to save on labor costs.

[–] context@hexbear.net 20 points 2 months ago (1 children)

exactly, now startup executives can bilk investors using ai to replace dozens of bullshit jobs with automated bullshit. think of the savings!

[–] queermunist@lemmy.ml 20 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Or just gesture at AI and not actually use it. In the example given, the firm started at around 60 people to attract investment and then stabilized at around 10. With AI hype they can skip that step where they start off with 60 people to attract investment and just start out with the 10 they really need, and explain their small startup staff as being a result of efficiencies created by AI.

Surely this is a real economy that produces real value and isn't a circus tent of clowns picking each other's pockets.

[–] context@hexbear.net 17 points 2 months ago

trade-offer i'm working on an app that enables clowns to statistically identify the most profitable clown pockets to pick while siphoning off a small percentage for myself and a few dozen chatbots, perhaps you'd like to invest?

clown-to-clown-communicationclown-to-clown-conversation

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 6 points 2 months ago

That's the new paradigm the AI companies are selling. Their claim is that they will be able to eliminate a lot of the need for human labor that currently exists. If that were to actually happen then investors would have to adjust how they evaluate growth of the companies they invest into. The number of employees has always been just a lazy metric that companies learned to game anyways. This can easily end up being swapped for a different superficial metric like the number of LLM tokens the companies are consuming.

[–] Spongebobsquarejuche@hexbear.net 39 points 2 months ago (1 children)

And bonus points because we never actually recovered from the subprime bubble!

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 13 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

That's the nature of capitalist boom/bust cycles. Each one results in a wealth transfer to the top because majority of people end up having to let go of their assets to make ends meet. In this way assets get freed up for the top percent to gobble them up. So, when the economy stabilizes the majority of the population ends up on thinner margins and less able to absorb the next crash. Eventually, enough people get pushed off the cliff so that the whole house of cards falls apart.

[–] infuziSporg@hexbear.net 2 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I think the first shocks obliterate wealth in the stock market and then the long trough/recovery is where they exact their pound of flesh back from the people they have power over.

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 2 months ago

Yeah, the market collapse tends to act as the catalyst. As the market falls, companies go out of business, and bigger capitalist can devour smaller ones. Meanwhile, all the workers end up being let go, and as people lose jobs they let go of their assets next.

[–] cosmosaucer@hexbear.net 29 points 2 months ago (5 children)

so is the play just holding cash until it bursts then buy the dip?

[–] Vingst@hexbear.net 28 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

Cash will depreciate with inflation, especially now that the Fed is going to raise rates again. The usual play is to buy gold, which has been going way up for awhile now.

Cash is considered a safe-haven asset though, and it is the most liquid. Other safe-haven assets are government bonds, defensive stocks.

Also I don't really know what I'm talking about.

[–] Test_Tickles@hexbear.net 12 points 2 months ago

i should've done this one year ago

[–] Incremental_anarchist@hexbear.net 6 points 2 months ago (1 children)

The price of gold tends to go up during bad times and down during good times, so I think that industry is essentially just profiting off people's fears, and buying now (when it's price is going up) is a bad long term plan

[–] Vingst@hexbear.net 5 points 2 months ago

If one believes the stock market will crash soon and gold price will decline less than other assets, then it still might make sense to buy gold, but I'm not smart enough to time the market like that.

[–] RION@hexbear.net 26 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

Consider if you had done just that this January after seeing this post. You would have missed out on ~14.5% gains in the S&P 500, and still be waiting for the bubble to burst.

Everyone would love to be the guy who sold right before the great recession and bought at absolute rock bottom, but then again everyone would love to be the guy who went all in on NVIDIA in 2016--only, very few of us luck into being that guy. For the rest of us, time in the market beats timing the market.

If you're worried about an impending correction you might want to shift your allocations towards bonds instead of equities. The exact proportions would depend on your overall retirement plan.

[–] blunder@hexbear.net 15 points 2 months ago

not only that, if you bought in at the peak in 2007 and held until 2017, you made out like +60%, recession included

[–] adultswim_antifa@hexbear.net 14 points 2 months ago

It's fairly common and simple to exit the market when the price goes below it's 200 day moving average, and re-enter when it goes back above. It will incur losses if the market keeps bobbing up and down around the average though, but the rule keeps you out during the big crashes and keeps you in during the big bull runs. Some also require a rising unemployment rate to reduce false positives. We are currently way above the 200 day moving average. If I remember correctly, long term returns are slightly worse than simple buy and hold, but portfolio volatility is reduced a lot, because bear markets are more volatile. You will never know how high it can go at the top or how low it can go at the bottom.

[–] SoyViking@hexbear.net 13 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

If I had money to gamble with and no conscience I would put it in arms manufacturing. It seems pretty obvious that our ~~toilets~~ leaders have chosen that to be the growth sector for the foreseeable future.

[–] miz@hexbear.net 11 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] SoyViking@hexbear.net 14 points 2 months ago

The wonders of autocorrect....

The Andruil IPO is probably going to make a lot people rich

[–] Rom@hexbear.net 27 points 2 months ago

The bigger they are the harder they fall spongebob-party

[–] Dessa@hexbear.net 27 points 2 months ago
[–] CrispyFern@hexbear.net 27 points 2 months ago
[–] infuziSporg@hexbear.net 23 points 2 months ago
[–] Wertheimer@hexbear.net 18 points 2 months ago
[–] TheOtherwise@hexbear.net 12 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Let's say it did pop. What publically traded companies would get hit hardest?

[–] machiabelly@hexbear.net 15 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] PoY@lemmygrad.ml 9 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] PorkrollPosadist@hexbear.net 6 points 2 months ago

Microsoft is actually profitable though (no thanks to AI)

[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 5 points 2 months ago