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so is the play just holding cash until it bursts then buy the dip?
Cash will depreciate with inflation, especially now that the Fed is going to raise rates again. The usual play is to buy gold, which has been going way up for awhile now.
Cash is considered a safe-haven asset though, and it is the most liquid. Other safe-haven assets are government bonds, defensive stocks.
Also I don't really know what I'm talking about.
i should've done this one year ago
The price of gold tends to go up during bad times and down during good times, so I think that industry is essentially just profiting off people's fears, and buying now (when it's price is going up) is a bad long term plan
If one believes the stock market will crash soon and gold price will decline less than other assets, then it still might make sense to buy gold, but I'm not smart enough to time the market like that.
Consider if you had done just that this January after seeing this post. You would have missed out on ~14.5% gains in the S&P 500, and still be waiting for the bubble to burst.
Everyone would love to be the guy who sold right before the great recession and bought at absolute rock bottom, but then again everyone would love to be the guy who went all in on NVIDIA in 2016--only, very few of us luck into being that guy. For the rest of us, time in the market beats timing the market.
If you're worried about an impending correction you might want to shift your allocations towards bonds instead of equities. The exact proportions would depend on your overall retirement plan.
not only that, if you bought in at the peak in 2007 and held until 2017, you made out like +60%, recession included
It's fairly common and simple to exit the market when the price goes below it's 200 day moving average, and re-enter when it goes back above. It will incur losses if the market keeps bobbing up and down around the average though, but the rule keeps you out during the big crashes and keeps you in during the big bull runs. Some also require a rising unemployment rate to reduce false positives. We are currently way above the 200 day moving average. If I remember correctly, long term returns are slightly worse than simple buy and hold, but portfolio volatility is reduced a lot, because bear markets are more volatile. You will never know how high it can go at the top or how low it can go at the bottom.
If I had money to gamble with and no conscience I would put it in arms manufacturing. It seems pretty obvious that our ~~toilets~~ leaders have chosen that to be the growth sector for the foreseeable future.
toilets?
The wonders of autocorrect....
The Andruil IPO is probably going to make a lot people rich