yogthos

I'd argue more broadly we can be sure that the west has now entered terminal decline, and we're going to see a geopolitical realignment towards China going forward. There might be dying gasps like an attack on Venezuela or Iran, but none of that is going to arrest the decline or reverse it.

I don't see how that works just from material perspective alone. Russia is singlehandedly outproducing all of NATO militarily. China has orders of magnitude bigger industry. We've also seen that the west is entirely dependent on critical inputs from China like rare earths without which all high tech manufacturing here stops, including military production. Finally, Both Russia and China are nuclear superpowers, so any direct conflict would be suicidal.

I mean once you zero in on a particular paper of interest, then you can always find the full version.

it's a real spectacle

Exactly, the public now knows they're getting fucked, and they are angry.

Seems like it could be soon given that OpenAI is now openly angling for a bailout. The investors seem to be increasingly getting cold feet, so we could see a market panic sometime next year which would lead to the subsidies and bailouts. I've been wrong before though, and maybe they'll manage to kick the can further down the road somehow. I just can't see what options they have left at this point.

Even a bailout will be disastrous because it translates into another wealth transfer to the top. Each time this happens regular working class people end up getting pushed further towards the edge. When 2008 crash happens, people still had savings and a large chunk of the population could absorb the crisis. This time around most of the public is on much thinner margins, and the crash will be far more severe. If the consumption collapses in the US, the whole economy is going to come apart.

I feel like these past couple of weeks might be a turning point. I think it all started with OpenAI basically saying they need a bailout and MS publishing their quarterly filings showing that they're spending billions on OpenAI. And now you see all the investors starting to panic.

seems inevitable, the only question is how long investors are willing to keep pouring money into the whole thing

You know the war is lost when the UK decides they want to talk to Russia.

Indeed, seems highly unlikely that the bubble will last another 4 years.

It's starting, but it's gonna get a lot worse in the next four years.