this post was submitted on 08 Oct 2024

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Harris' lead over Trump narrows to 46% vs 43%, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds (www.reuters.com)

submitted 2 years ago by GiddyGap@lemm.ee to c/politics@lemmy.world

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[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 50 points 2 years ago

I hate these hyperbolic headlines describing some tiny poll movement in a single poll well within the margin of error, describing it a some definitive clear change in support.

Here's the times sienna poll today for instance, another high quality pollster, where she went from tied to now 3% ahead and is leading for the first time in that poll since July.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4921203-kamala-harris-donald-trump-national-new-york-times-poll/

If the race is truly a 3 point gap right now, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent, you're going to see polls with her everywhere from one behind to 7 ahead. It's a bad idea to hyper scrutinize or draw big conclusions from tiny changes in one poll.

[–] kamenlady@lemmy.world 45 points 2 years ago (5 children)

I really would like to see those 43%.

Like, after years and years of Trump upping the ante in presenting himself as the biggest turd alive, there are still people that sincerely think "yeah, I'd like him as president - he represents the values i stand in for"…?

I would just like to see the people, because a minority of them will be your typical MAGA-Puppet.

[–] superkret@feddit.org 30 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Most of them are completely isolated from all news or political information, except for the local radio they hear on their way to work, and Fox News.
It's hard to believe, but millions of people simply haven't heard about how shitty Trump is.

[–] SpruceBringsteen@lemmy.world 24 points 2 years ago

The moment something negative is said about Trump, they will tune out. They'll proudly tell you this too.

[–] fluxion@lemmy.world 4 points 2 years ago

They do have one liberal on Fox News that has laid out most of Trump's bigger oopsies at one point or another but they apparently ignore every single word she says.

[–] GiddyGap@lemm.ee 12 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I have many extended family members among the 43. They dismiss any criticism against Trump as "fake news" and "liberal media agenda." Nothing will ever make them not vote Trump. It's wild.

[–] AA5B@lemmy.world 1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Have they listened to Trump speak? Because that was enough for me

[–] GiddyGap@lemm.ee 2 points 2 years ago

They love how he speaks.

[–] BassTurd@lemmy.world 5 points 2 years ago

I'm in a large city in Iowa on the edge of town. If I drive 5 minutes down the road I will see for sure one small Trump sign, one small Harris sign, a farm house with a few Trump signs of various sizes, then another with a few large ones held up with fence posts. That's places that I know of off the top of my head, but if I drive further I will not see another Harris sign unless I get down town residential. They are disgustingly all over.

[–] IchNichtenLichten@lemmy.world 5 points 2 years ago

A lot of these morons see politics as a team sport. You might as well ask a Packers fan to support the Vikings or a United fan to get behind City.

[–] InverseParallax@lemmy.world 5 points 2 years ago

“yeah, I’d like him as president - he represents the values i stand in for”…?

reddit.com/r/beholdthemasterrace

[–] someguy3@lemmy.world 7 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Respondents rated the economy as the top issue facing the country, and some 44% said Trump had the better approach on addressing the "cost of living," compared to 38% who picked Harris. Among a range of economic issues the next president should address, some 70% of respondents said the cost of living would be the most important, with only tiny shares picking the job market, taxes or "leaving me better off financially." Trump had more support than Harris in each of those areas as well, although voters by a margin of 42% to 35% thought Harris was the better candidate to address the gap between wealthy and average Americans.

[–] floofloof@lemmy.ca 7 points 2 years ago (1 children)

It would be nice to press these people on why they think that, though it's probably just "that's what I heard."

[–] ryathal@sh.itjust.works 3 points 2 years ago

It's not that complicated. Inflation is 20% since Trump left office, it was only 8% for Trump. Unemployment was good during both terms, other than COVID lockdown periods. Trump had good wage growth numbers, Biden only has ok numbers for yoy, not across his whole term.

[–] samus12345@lemmy.world 4 points 2 years ago

It's a coin flip, just like it has been the entire time.

[–] Asidonhopo@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Polymarket has Trump ahead by 6 points. Don't shoot the messenger, I'm signing up for a passport today just in case.

[–] auzy@lemmy.world 8 points 2 years ago (1 children)

We'd be happy to have you in Australia mate.

God we need more normal people here. Happy to ship out cookers and loonies up to the US as a trade

[–] Asidonhopo@lemmy.world 1 points 2 years ago

I appreciate the warm welcome! We'll see if I can find a place with low enough rent, I assume Australia has something like the same housing crisis the US and Canada has?

We have plenty of cookers and loonies here too, yours would find their people here. Would make a great swap imho

[+] givesomefucks@lemmy.world -9 points 2 years ago (2 children)

If you're wondering why her, her campaign, and DNC leadership keep pretending it's a coincidence the more conservative she becomes the worse she polls...

It's because they're all making a lot of money from donors in return for all her conservative shifts.

Presidential campaigns "cost" over a billion dollars now. That's a lot of fat to trim off for a lot of people.

And with the DNC valuing donation bundlers over any other skill, it's seems like it should be pretty obvious they care more about grifting money than getting Harris elected.

Anyone that says it takes over a billion dollars to beat trump shouldn't be running a campaign for local dog catcher. But they'll never stop trying to get more money. Instead of just trying to get more votes.

The people running the party have different goals than the voters in the party

[–] Blackbeard@lemmy.world 19 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (2 children)

[–] Asafum@feddit.nl 6 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (2 children)

Some 53% of voters in the poll said they agreed with a statement that “immigrants who are in the country illegally are a danger to public safety,” compared to 41% who disagreed. Voters had been more closely divided on the question in a May Reuters/Ipsos poll, when 45% agreed and 46% disagreed.

Ahhh good to know some things never change. Good old hateful racist assholes Americans being asshole Americans. I hate living here with these fucking ghouls. The only dangerous people are actual American citizens...

[–] Blackbeard@lemmy.world -1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

That's certainly one way to look at it, and around here you'll find a lot of folks are eager to pat you on the back for embracing that kind of lazy, myopic conclusion. There is, however, much more to the story:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2024/may/28/young-more-anti-immigration-than-old-in-parts-of-europe-polling-shows

https://www.paschal-law.com/blog/the-rise-of-anti-immigrant-sentiment-around-the-world/

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/27/nx-s1-5050746/rising-anti-immigrant-sentiment-in-germany-causes-concerns-in-the-countrys-business-community

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352250X22001531

https://bpr.studentorg.berkeley.edu/2022/12/09/what-is-driving-the-rise-of-anti-immigration-sentiment-in-europe/

Given that the trend we're seeing is also prevalent in most western democracies, we're left with two distinct possibilities:

Every western democracy is half-full of racist assholes.
There's something going on that's more nuanced than naked racial animus.

Which seems more likely seems to depend a great deal on direct, lived experience, as well as education and age. It also seems to depend on the health of the broader economy. Unfortunately, pointing those factors out doesn't tend to elicit as many upvotes as claiming everyone's a flaming, degenerate racist.

[–] abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us 2 points 2 years ago

Thank you for those links and insightful take. I had wondered about this myself - with your take I can see a way forward now.

[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world -2 points 2 years ago (3 children)

That 53% of voters includes ever trump voter in the country.

So if it's every trump supporter, it's only 10% of people who aren't voting R no matter.

Republicans pander to the majority of their base. And Dems also pander to the Republican base.

It's one of the biggest and most obvious problems with our political system. When both parties keep moving right, it's obviously going to result in the country overall moving to the right.

It's really not complicated, but some people love to misrepresent it.

[–] qprimed@lemmy.ml 3 points 2 years ago

the Democratic chase for the centrist unicorn stuffs us all into a very cramped and increasingly hot basket.

[–] abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us 1 points 2 years ago

That 53% of voters includes ever trump voter in the country

Perhaps not every single last one, but good point overall.

So if it’s every trump supporter,

I would need more evidence to support the rest of this. But yeah we at least can get a better handle by filtering out those supporters - the remaining percentage is likely to be much smaller.

Republicans pander to the majority of their base. And Dems also pander to the Republican base.

Actually this is not true. AOC for example, endorses Harris (as per https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cj4xegj1jq2o ) but is definitely more liberal than Harris and not afraid to state it (see https://qz.com/aoc-mark-cuban-kamala-harris-ftc-lina-khan-billionaire-1851669012 )

Harris is in a tough spot to win the election but wait another generation or decade and I have a feeling that things are going to look very different.

[–] InverseParallax@lemmy.world 1 points 2 years ago

Which is why we need to be smart.

We need to cancel the electoral votes of the South, until they sort their shit out, call it Reconstruction 2.0.

We have to fix this cancer on our nation if we ever hope to function again, and the longer we push it off, the worse the metastasis gets.

[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago (2 children)

...

90% sure we've went over this before...

X% of voters includes Republicans that will never vote D under any circumstances

To motivate people who will vote D. We need to focus on what they want.

Did it work this time?

[–] abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us 1 points 2 years ago

X% of voters includes Republicans that will never vote D under any circumstances

Agreed, but..

To motivate people who will vote D. We need to focus on what they want.

This does include some moderate Republicans, think Liz Cheney. With the GOP turning the way it has - practically being a personality cult for one guy now, it makes sense that those folks who got left out would try to find a home with the Dems - and in the short term that alliance means a better chance at securing the White House.

I get the point you are trying to make. But you don't seem to understand mine. And keep in mind that this isn't the first time I've tried to explain this to you.

[–] Blackbeard@lemmy.world -4 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

[+] givesomefucks@lemmy.world -7 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Do you want to just insult people?

Or are you willing to abide by this subs rules and have a reasonable discussion?

[–] AmidFuror@fedia.io 8 points 2 years ago

His comment was no more insulting than yours, IMHO.

[+] jhymesba@lemmy.world 1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

[removed by mod]

[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world -2 points 2 years ago (2 children)

You can still vote for someone even if you think we deserve a better candidate, I've been doing it for decades at this point...

There's no reason to insult people or act like you can't criticize the least worst option while still holding your nose and voting for them.

The majority of Dem voters shouldn't be shocked by that. We've been doing it for a long time...

I can count the people I know who wanted Biden or Hillary as president on one hand but virtually everyone i know still voted for both of them in the last two elections.

It would just be a lot easier to stop trump if we ran a candidate that Dem voters wanted to be president.

That shouldn't be a relevation either

[–] jhymesba@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I think there's a time and a place for criticizing our candidates. The time is during the candidate's term and in the Primaries. During the General, it's a bad time to do so. And you have to realise: You don't always get what you want. You say you want a candidate that Dem voters want to be President. The opportunity for that to happen is in the primaries. Unfortunately, the time for that has come and gone.

Biden won those primaries. The voters for the Democratic Party, who ALL get a say, put Biden up front. And people hammered Biden, including bad actors from the other party as well as from foreign countries, until Biden had no room for error. When he flubbed the first debate, we used the rules for succession, with him stepping down and his VP taking the top spot, like what would happen if he was rendered incapable of serving while he was in office.

I return to my key point. Trump or Harris are our choices today. No Third Party will win. As long as you are voting for Harris, criticise away. Just know that I will push back against any post that seems to suggest our candidate is horribad and shouldn't be voted for. Not voting for Harris means we get Trump.

[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 0 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

The time is during the candidate’s term and in the Primaries.

You think we had a primary?

And during their term? That's like saying the best time to negotiate price is after the sale is made...

Your view only makes sense if you're operating under the assumption the candidate won't listen to any criticism or adjust their policy to align with Dem voters more and maximize their chances of winning the election.

Biden isn't the candidate anymore, Harris certainly isn't perfect but I believe she's at least willing to open a dialog with Dem voters, even after the shit that was pulled at the DNC where she did the opposite.

Dem voters aren't Republican voters, telling them to shut up and vote D depresses turnout, what improves Dem turnout is the candidate listening to voters so that they feel part of the party and more likely to support the candidate, even if the candidates position doesn't change.

It's really as easy as that to boost Dem turnout.

It's only bad for the Dem candidate if they act like a spoiled toddler who's told there's no ice cream till the vegetables are gone

[+] jhymesba@lemmy.world 0 points 2 years ago (1 children)

[removed by mod]

[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world -2 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

Yeah…I thought you might be reasonable, but this? This proves you aren’t reasonable.

Can you try again but this time not violate this subs rules?

I didn't bother reading the rest when the very first sentence is an insult

Edit:

Rule 3 in case you can't see the sidebar:

Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.

[–] jhymesba@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago (2 children)

I just called you unreasonable. We'll see if the mods think that's a violation of the TOS. Have a nice life, either way.

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

"Unreasonable" isn't pejorative.

"Fucking unreasonable" would be removed.

[–] Blackbeard@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Then why was the comment removed?

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 1 points 2 years ago

Not sure, I left it.

[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world -1 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative)

It's literally right there...

By your own admission:

I just called you unreasonable

That's against civility rules.

But what I said still stands, if you try again without the civility breaking parts, I'm willing to spend some time to help you understand.

[–] abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us 1 points 2 years ago

It would just be a lot easier to stop trump if we ran a candidate that Dem voters wanted to be president.

Okay, so worth asking: how can we win with a different hypothetical candidate who appeals to Dems only but not moderate Republicans? Keeping in mind that individuals in smaller states like in the midwest have more voting power per person and also that the makeup of the Electoral College is such that the GOP has an advantage?

[–] abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us 1 points 2 years ago

The people running the party have different goals than the voters in the party

I do recall this in being a factor, it was thought that the GOP couldn't prevent that guy from winning the nomination in 2016 while the DNC had the power to annoint Clinton over Sanders.

Presidential campaigns “cost” over a billion dollars now.

Yes. Citizens United. At least the DNC is able to match the GOP here though.

And with the DNC valuing donation bundlers over any other skill, it’s seems like it should be pretty obvious they care more about grifting money than getting Harris elected.

That's not obvious at all. Alternative view: they're just trying to outspend the GOP in the hopes that this get Harris elected.

The people running the party have different goals than the voters in the party

Again, not at all obvious.

Anyone that says it takes over a billion dollars to beat shouldn’t be running a campaign for local dog catcher.

Of course that's not it! The question is, if the GOP has a billion dollar lead over Harris, can the GOP prevail over Harris?

Maybe not, but, why take that chance?

But they’ll never stop trying to get more money. Instead of just trying to get more votes.

I mean they're trying to use the money to spread outreach and engagement (which hopefully turns into legitimate votes for Harris). I understand the frustration with the overall system but ultimately this is all for the goal of getting more to turn out for Harris.