Ranvier

joined 1 year ago
[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 8 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 children)

This isn't something that gets done like after a few hours or a day or something. It takes quite some time to get through cooling protocols, warming again, complete all the testing, geting everything stable. Talking like a week plus at the quickest. And cranial nerve reflexes are just one thing of many different tests done. And to boot, it sounds like from the article they knew he had cranial nerve reflexes, which anyone halfway competent should know, means there is certainly not brain death. Really want to know what this hospital was doing that they messed up so badly.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 38 points 4 weeks ago (3 children)

Really want to know exactly who declared brain death? For instance in the article the family talks about seeing eye movements and being told they're "just reflexes."Yeah that may be, but reflexes involving the eyes are cranial nerve reflexes, they go through the brain. There can't be brain death if they are there. That's a brain function. Testing to make sure all cranial nerve reflexes are absent (gag, apnea, vestibular, etc) is one of the basic pieces of brain death testing.

There's a lot of confusion in popular media between brain death and persistent vegetative state. In a persistent vegetative state there's still many brain functions going, but troubles maintaining consciousness. Brain death testing when properly done there is extensive testing done by a neurologist or someone with a similar background to show no brain function at all remains before it can be declared brain death, no matter how basic, even the simplest of brain reflexes. It's not just one test but a whole series of testing with different modalities.

Would really like to know what happened here to cause such a colossal mess. Or nearly did, the doctors stopped before doing anything at least.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 13 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Polling errors are not predictable beforehand. If they were, we wouldn't have polling errors. In 2022 for instance there was polling error in favor of democrats not against (or at least too much emphasis on polls with errors in Republican favor).

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html

We can't know the electorate beforehand, so poll weighting and deciding who is a likely voter is always going to involve some guesswork. So the opposite of what you say is true as well, if there is a small polling error that overstates Trump's support it would have Kamala sweeping every swing state.

But the polls show a close election, all we can do is do our best to do things that help her win. Like voting early to make sure our vote gets in no matter what, encouraging people we know to register and vote, volunteering, canvassing, donating, etc.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 140 points 1 month ago (9 children)

Also important to know, if democrats take back the house, Johnson would no longer be speaker at the time the presidential election is certified. It's the next congress, not the current one, that will certify the vote. New congress is seated on January 3rd 2025, and the presidential election certification is on January 6th 2025.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 3 points 1 month ago

"The charges include market manipulation, conspiracy to commit money laundering, and wire fraud, which can lead to sentences of up to 20 years"

SEC also has a press release

https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024-166

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 50 points 1 month ago

I hate these hyperbolic headlines describing some tiny poll movement in a single poll well within the margin of error, describing it a some definitive clear change in support.

Here's the times sienna poll today for instance, another high quality pollster, where she went from tied to now 3% ahead and is leading for the first time in that poll since July.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4921203-kamala-harris-donald-trump-national-new-york-times-poll/

If the race is truly a 3 point gap right now, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent, you're going to see polls with her everywhere from one behind to 7 ahead. It's a bad idea to hyper scrutinize or draw big conclusions from tiny changes in one poll.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 20 points 1 month ago (2 children)

This is why we so desperately need the voting rights act back. It used to be that changes like this required pre clearance before taking effect, and any challenges be worked out before hand.

Another terrible supreme court decision courtesy conservatives/Republicans who don't respect the right to vote.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 34 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (7 children)

So the model image you posted above there says it's more likely that Trump wins the election than it is flipping two heads in a row while flipping a coin. This is saying it's less likely for Trump to win than Hillary to win, but something that could fairly easily happen still. These aren't poll numbers, where 70-30 would be a massive blow out. This is a 30% chance of winning for Trump, closer to a coin flip than a sure thing.

A lot of other models were saying something ridiculous like Clinton had 95% chance to win or something. Nate Silver's model seems better than others based on this, if anything.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 50 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

Unfortunately the interest rate is specifically set by law and tied to 10 year treasury bill rates. This cannot be altered with an executive action, would need congress to change the law.

https://studentaid.gov/understand-aid/types/loans/interest-rates#who-sets

That's why the executive orders are focused on things like minimum payments, how long it takes to get forgiveness, who qualifies, etc, because the laws give the department of education more latitude to adjust those things (or are supposed to at least, weird rulings from republican judges notwithstanding).

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 25 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

It wasn't the same thing, all three of them were different plans using different justifications based on different laws. One was a blanket forgiveness based on laws allowing for adjustments of student loans in emergencies. One is need based or other circumstance based forgiveness based on a much earlier law giving the department of education wide latitude to make adjustments. And one was adjustments to the income based repayment plans based on the laws establishing those (this has happened many times in the past, such as the establishment of the PAYE and REPAYE plans).

It's especially egregious that judges are blocking the SAVE plan, as many similar adjustments have been made to income based repayment plans previously with no one taking any issue.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 10 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-issues-new-batch-of-sanctions-targeting-west-bank-settlers-amid-rampant-violence/

You can say it's not enough if you want, but you can't say it's nothing. Certainly gets Netanyahu upset at least.

 

Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman writes in new book that U.S. support for Israeli sovereignty is ‘based first and foremost on biblical prophecies and values’

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 7 points 2 months ago (1 children)

The "pro family" party everyone. Don't forget their other greatest hits like, kidnapping children of immigrants and not keeping records of who they were kidnapping them from, making reuniting them with their families ever again difficult to impossible.

 

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau plans to restart its aggressive crackdown against payday lenders and other companies that offer high-cost, short-term loans to poor borrowers, after a Supreme Court ruling this week resolved a challenge to the federal agency’s authority to act.

The decision is expected to ease some of the persistent political and legal obstacles at the CFPB, where powerful financial firms had blocked regulations, jeopardized the bureau’s funding and used the uncertainty generated by their battle to ward off recent probes and punishments.

https://archive.is/uq5G1

 

Trump’s response stunned several of the executives in the room overlooking the ocean: You all are wealthy enough, he said, that you should raise $1 billion to return me to the White House. At the dinner, he vowed to immediately reverse dozens of President Biden’s environmental rules and policies and stop new ones from being enacted, according to people with knowledge of the meeting, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe a private conversation.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/09/trump-oil-industry-campaign-money/

https://archive.is/BquYY

 

A state oversight panel is recommending Wisconsin prosecutors pursue a slate of felony charges against a fundraising committee for Donald Trump and a Republican state lawmaker in a scheme to evade campaign finance laws surrounding an effort to unseat one of the most powerful Republicans in Wisconsin, Trump foe Assembly Speaker Robin Vos.

 

Never before had a president used his constitutional clemency powers to free or forgive so many people who could be useful to his future political efforts. A Washington Post review of Trump’s 238 clemency orders found that dozens of recipients, including Arpaio, have gone on to plug his 2024 candidacy through social media and national interviews, contribute money to his front-running bid for the Republican nomination or disseminate his false claims of voter fraud in the 2020 election.

Ghost archive link: https://ghostarchive.org/archive/IHZj1

 

The federal government is no longer warning Meta about foreign influence campaigns, a shift that comes amid a legal campaign against the Biden administration’s communication with tech platforms.

Archive link: https://ghostarchive.org/archive/4ejOM

 

This report is required by law every four years. The previous report was buried by the Trump administration. This time around Biden admin going to great lengths to publicize the report, including the creation of an Atlas allowing Americans to see how climate change is expected to affect their local area.

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