Climate

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

Anti-science, inactivism, and unsupported conspiracy theories are not ok here.

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A judge ruled in December that the agency could not cancel a program that had helped states invest billions of dollars in disaster readiness

The New York Times now requires about 1/10 of people clicking a gift link like this one to register in order to access the article. You can either:

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The Bezos Earth Fund is focused on selling artificial intelligence — the technology driving Amazon's rising carbon emissions — as the solution to the climate crisis

The claim that AI is going to solve the climate crisis is of course total bullshit

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Not that it will go anywhere, of course,

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Glacier ice contains valuable information about the climates of the past. Researchers are scrambling to study it before it's too late.

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The paper is here

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The paper is here

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The DOE just ordered the TransAlta coal plant to keep running. But it has been offline since December, and a new state law would make it too costly to turn back on.

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cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/27264515

The original (very generic) title):

Government to go "further and faster" in becoming energy secure

The Energy Secretary outlines measures to protect consumers and make Britain energy secure.

They are speaking of panels in the 800W range which you can just buy , mount in front of your balcony or on top of your carport, and plug into a wall socket.

These things are wildly popular in Germany. The do not generate a lot of power, but armotize in about three years and save real money. (Depending on how old the metering technology is, they can also make the power meter spin backwards, which I think is only fair considering how much households pay for kWh, compared to energy-hungry companies, which get most of the the massive cost savings from renewables but don't pay for the necessary upgrade of the grid).

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cross-posted from: https://piefed.zip/c/europe/p/1251668/bloomberg-renewables-are-also-protecting-europe-from-iran-crisis-related-price-shocks

Summary: Bloomberg: Renewables are also protecting Europe from Iran-crisis-related price shocks

Europe's electricity market is weathering the current Middle East crisis far better than it did the 2022 Russian gas shock, and the reason is the same as in Pakistan: rapid renewable deployment is decoupling power prices from fossil fuel volatility.

While gas prices have surged in response to Hormuz disruptions, German and French electricity contract prices actually fell last week. Rabobank estimates that without renewables and the seasonal demand drop, European power prices would already be around a third higher than they currently are. Electricity contracts remain a fraction of the extreme levels seen after the Nord Stream explosions in 2022, giving policymakers crucial breathing room on inflation — though the EU has warned overall inflation could still exceed 3% if the conflict drags on.

Several factors are converging favourably. Solar output is entering its seasonal ramp-up, with Germany's April solar generation forecast to rise 25% year-on-year and wind projected up 70%. France's nuclear fleet, which was severely underperforming during the last crisis, is now back to full strength. The combination has pushed prices negative during German daytime solar hours since mid-February — something not normally seen until April.

The structural shift is also reshaping market dynamics. As in Pakistan's case, domestically generated renewables are proving immune to the geopolitical disruptions affecting imported fuels — as RWE's CEO put it, "renewables are not affected." Solar is increasingly setting daytime prices, with gas plants pushed to evening peak hours only.

The resilience is not total, however. Evening prices, when solar fades and demand remains elevated, have spiked sharply — reaching above €400/MWh in the Netherlands — exposing the continuing vulnerability where fossil fuel dependency has not yet been displaced.

The crisis is nonetheless reinforcing the investment case for electrification across Europe, mirroring the dynamic seen in Pakistan where consumer-led solar adoption has quietly delivered the energy security that years of state policy could not.

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As a Brazilian, I'll believe it when it see it...

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XP

Graphical Abstract

Highlights

  • Total emissions of Israel-Gaza war amounted to 33.2 million tons
  • Emissions from the open conflict surpassed 1.3 million tons CO2 equiv
  • Pre- and post-conflict activities contributed a considerate amount of CO2 equiv
  • Mandatory reporting of military emissions is essential for effective climate mitigation

Comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) inventories are vital for effective climate governance. However, a decade after the Paris Agreement, significant reporting gaps still exist. Emissions associated with military activities represent one such gap, with direct emissions from conflicts frequently unreported and pre- and post-conflict emissions consistently overlooked. Insufficient accounting prevents military emissions from being included in international climate agreements, undermining climate mitigation. We use open-source data in government, think tank, and civil society reports on combat operations and military installations to assess emissions from the Israel-Gaza conflict, including pre-conflict infrastructure, active conflict, and post-conflict reconstruction. We show that scope 1 and 2 emissions of open conflict exceeded 1.3 million tons CO~2~ equiv by January 2025. This value rises to 33.2 million tons CO~2~ equiv when including scope 3+ emissions of pre- and post-conflict activities like defensive fences and reconstruction, highlighting the need for more comprehensive reporting of military emissions and their significant climate costs.

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