Climate

In the 1980s and 1990s, climate change was a threat, not a reality. Back then, climate leaders hoped to slow or stop warming before our civilization would see material weather-related effects or reach levels of warming that would risk irreversible changes. Those leaders—people like George Woodwell, who created the institution that brought me into this work—achieved admirable results, building the infrastructure, frameworks, and culture that came to define the climate action community.

In 2026, what the climate leaders of the previous era hoped to prevent is now here. Global temperatures from the past three years (2023-2025) averaged more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level for the first time. Climate models project that we could reach 2°C of warming as early as the 2030s.

And yet, public acknowledgement and discussion of this physical reality remain confined to specialists. It has not penetrated mainstream climate messaging, media coverage, or public discourse anywhere near the scale its consequences demand. Some thought leaders even celebrate the current trajectory as a win compared to the much higher warming that once seemed likely.

The climate community is not a monolith, but having tracked climate messaging closely for over a decade, I believe the prevailing narratives are not keeping pace with the science. Terms like “doomerism” have discouraged realism, leading many to mistake clear-eyed risk assessment for defeatism or alarmism. The climate movement needs a shared narrative focused on what outcomes are inevitable, what we can still prevent, and what choices remain available. In other words: What futures can humanity still hope for?

The paper is here

Rising temperatures making it hard even for young, healthy people to safely do normal physical tasks in many regions

The paper is here

Four years ago, European officials made a plan to reduce dependence on Russian gas and ramp up renewable energy, but a new study found it only reinforced existing decarbonization trajectories and missed the opportunity to meaningfully accelerate the clean energy transition.

I also note that Alberta-style tar mining is associated with a huge increase in risk of cancer for surrounding communities

Climate change has played a role. Drought cycles are becoming more frequent and severe, and last year marked one of the driest periods in the last 20 years for Iran. Extreme weather — like a 2023 heat wave that led to a two-day nationwide shutdown when temperatures reached 123 degrees Fahrenheit — has made water shortages worse. At the same time, snowmelt in the mountains that feeds rivers has been declining.

So three things:

• Higher temperatures mean less water available
• Management for short-term interests rather than the longer term sustainability meant even less available
• The US bombing a desalination plant having a huge local impact on an island community without other good options for water.

The paper is here

To manage the energy crisis, the government has also ordered coal-fired power plants to operate at full capacity. In addition, it has instructed PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (PTTEP), a subsidiary of state-owned oil and gas company PTT, to maximize domestic gas production in the Gulf of Thailand. Experts warn these measures threaten Thailand’s updated emissions reduction pledge under the Paris climate agreement, which commits to a 47% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.

The paper is here

Per the article, the following are the ones which work:

• Carbon pricing and taxation (8 policies): Carbon taxes across sectors, emissions trading schemes, congestion charges and fossil fuel excise taxes all show robust effects, even when controlling for all other policies. This counters the claim that carbon pricing only seems effective because it’s usually accompanied by complementary measures.

• Energy efficiency and standards (5 policies): Building energy codes, air emission standards, minimum energy performance standards and motorway speed limits consistently reduce emissions.

• Renewable energy and research (11 policies): R&D expenditure on carbon capture, nuclear, hydrogen, energy efficiency and renewables, and planning for renewable expansion and auction schemes all reliably drive emission reductions.

• Reporting and accountability (3 policies): Greenhouse gas emissions reporting requirements across sectors show significant effects.

• Subsidy reduction (1 policy): Eliminating fossil fuel subsidies in transport reduces emissions.

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Climate change is one of the main concerns of the Swiss population. However, most citizens don’t want to invest more money in the ecological transition, as shown by their rejection of the climate fund initiative on Sunday.

On Sunday 71% of voters rejected the initiative calling for up to 1% of gross domestic product to be invested annually in measures to protect the climate and nature.

As the effects of climate change worsen, more people are wondering how it’s going to affect them personally. How is temperature and weather changing where you live? Is your home at risk from natural disasters, like wildfires and floods? And how will warming affect things like the economy, energy, health, and population trends?

We’ve gone through dozens of climate risk maps to identify the 5 regions of America which are facing the most overall risk. This is a quick way to check whether you’re sitting in the line of fire, so you can take steps to mitigate (or avoid) those threats.