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My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
For the weekend of August 1-2, Trump had once again promised major strikes on Iran, which would have included crossing the critical red line of striking their energy infrastructure. In response, Iran once again essentially promised to end the possibility of modern civilization as we know it throughout much of the Gulf States and, to a certain extent, the Zionist entity, with the economic impacts radiating outwards around the world from there. The frustrating part about these threats from Trump is that while he's reneged on them before, the consequences of them actually occurring are so dire that it's difficult to ignore them; rolling a dice with even a 5% chance for complete catastrophe will always be nerve-wracking.
Anyway, as we all know, these strikes did not occur, with the excuse this time being much the same as the previous times: our regional allies begged us not to (potentially true) and Iran called us and said they were willing to negotiate/surrender (untrue). The point of these threat displays is at least twofold: first, to see if Iran is genuinely going to flinch, or, at least, if internal elements that may or may not exist will be spooked into action against the IRGC; and second, to manipulate oil prices downwards by creating constant cycles of "relief" out of an otherwise relatively constant downward trend as Hormuz stays closed and oil reserves continue to ebb. I do say "relatively", of course, given that Ansarallah now appears to be delivering a boot up the ass of Saudi Arabia by taking offline quite a lot of its refinery infrastructure.
It is into this situation that Ukraine seems to want in. For those out of the loop, the situation over in Ukraine has largely the same overall attritional dynamics as previous years, but with a few added wrinkles. Ukraine started striking Russian infrastructure a while ago, and while their effectiveness is hotly debated and I don't want to dismiss them as totally ineffectual, it's clear that the psychological effects - such as they are - are greater than the material effects. Russia's retaliation strikes have been considerably more impactful, including strikes on Ukrainian Black Sea ports and vessels, and a campaign explicitly against gas stations across Ukraine, as well as some rather impressive and disruptive explosions at Ukrainian military fairs and production sites. Zelensky has admitted publicly that they are now basically out of Patriot missiles and that Russian missiles are now landing entirely unopposed (beforehand, they were just landing largely unopposed, given the lackluster performance of Western air defences in general). He seems to have considered a possible way out: linking together the Ukraine and Iran Wars to a united front against Russia and Iran, which would then grant Ukraine more munitions to keep fighting on.
Now, for all the fear I've seen of this occurring (and, don't get me wrong, the US and Russia being in non-proxy, direct conflict is a genuinely frightening prospect for continued life on Earth) how linking together two wars which the West is quite decisively losing into a single war would help at all is beyond me. At this moment, at least, US military planners appear to agree with me. Ukraine hit a Caspian Sea vessel going to Iran a while ago, but then seems to have quickly apologised after being given a stern talking to by the US. This shows just how willing the US is to grant Ukraine more aid, as their own interceptor stockpile is running very low due to Iranian strikes. One would almost feel sympathy for Zelensky if is wasn't for... well, everything that's happened. The path of Ngô Đình Diệm is a tough one to walk.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Esmaeil Baqaei: The geographical coordinates of the route proposed by Iran and Oman in the Strait of Hormuz have been agreed upon. If some third parties do not obstruct this process, the joint statement between the two countries is in the final review and drafting stage.
https://nitter.net/bonzerbarry/status/2085022669208944927
coupled with inbound trafic using iranian part reporting yesterday, this has all the hallmarks of 
champs
Yea, even if it works out - it doesn't seem like a smart idea.
Looks like some old friends are back at it again.
Tigray refugees flee into Sudan after deadly violence on Ethiopia border
there were also reports that ethiopia allows rsf staging its logistics in its territory
Are Saudi Arabia and the UAE still trying to occupy/annex Socotra? Feels like this is pretty relevant given the conflicts surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb, but I feel like I stopped hearing information about this years ago
Saudi Arabia forced the UAE's Puppet Goverment to return Socotra to the Saudi's Puppet Goverment. Then Saudi Arabia early this year destroyed all of the UAE's Puppet Goverment and annex it into their Puppet Goverment, I believe Saudi Arabia was also sending ammo and aid to the Sudanese Goverment to fight the Pro-UAE Terrorists too. UAE and Israel are now focusing their efforts in turning Somaliland into their Colony, which both the Houthis and Saudis have been worried about afaik.
The UAE got beat by Saudi Arabia who defacto controls the Island now, and likely will annex it should the Houthis defeat their yemeni puppet regime.
The houthis may just keep bombing the saudis until they give up the island if they unify mainland Yemen
True. The Houthis should definitely go for the lands the english and saudis stole in the 30s, as well.
Oh yea the borderlands in the northeast, but i think they will probably unify and build up before any land war vs the saud
CW: Pedophilia, Sexual Abuse,removed
Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) defies expectations and announces Congressman Alfredo Gaspar (LIberal Party) as his vice-presidential candidate for the 2026 General Elections. In recent days, the most talked-about name was that of councilwoman Priscila Costa (Liberal Party), an ally of Michelle and a strong figure in the Assembly of God. Center-right and right-wing parties, such as Progressistas (PP), União Brasil, and Republicanos, refused to provide a vice-presidential nominee for Flávio Bolsonaro’s 2026 presidential campaign primarily to avoid political isolation, legal risks, and the fallout from family-driven strategies. Rather than joining an uphill dynastic race, these parties chose neutrality to protect their own congressional seats and regional alliances.
Alfredo Gaspar, Flávio Bolsonaro's running mate, made headlines this year after being accused by Senator Soraya Thronicke and Senator Lindbergh Farias of statutoryremoved against a 13-year-old child in 2018. The complaint is before the Supreme Federal Court and under investigation by the Federal Police. According to the senators, the victim became pregnant by the congressman and is now the mother of a child born from the abuse and registered by the grandmother. The accusation further alleges that an intermediary for the congressman paid R$ 70,000 (US$ 13,628) and negotiated an additional R$ 400,000 (US$ 77.875) to "buy her silence."
I guess I shouldn't be surprised since Flavio Bolsonaro is supported by Pedo Trump and his own dad bragged about having sex with children and animals.
Yemen’s Armed Forces announce targeting another Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea off the coast of Yanbu, with anti-ship ballistic missiles
Hey everybody, are there any other nations which control strategic chokepoints in the global oil market that we should antagonize? It is literally working so well all of the time constantly
Spain could close the Gilbratar Strait if they really wanted. South Africa could refuse to let European and American ships use their ports. Chile and Argentina could close the Beagle straits, Malaysia and Indonesia could close their straits, Panama and Egypt could close their canals.
Can they? The UK would definitely do something about it. Honestly it would like help wreck the Zionist construct’s economy if Spain did that.
Spain would get coup'ed or invaded by NATO the following day if they do that. When Portugal became communist for a brief period in 1975 - 1978, the US freaked out that they would renounce their NATO membership and become a socialist state, the US believe the Revolution would spread to Spain and Italy if it was sucessful.
The US initially, under Kissinger recommendations, wanted Spain to invade Portugal and install a puppet goverment there. Meanwhile the CIA was funding separatist terrorist organizations in Madeira and Azores. In the end the US Diplomat in Portugal managed to Gerald Ford to not invade Portugal and to cut funding to the organizations and instead send money to the Socialist Party (a socdem party) to win the elections since the Far-Right was deeply unpopular due to the Estado Novo Regime and the attempted counter-coup in 1976.
True, true.
I mean the current crisis is manufactured to basically coup Spain already. Especially since the Gibraltar route is the main axis for Israhell trade nowadays.
The Guardian - IDF says it has begun 'targeted strikes' in southern Lebanon. The IDF has issued a brief update saying it has begun “targeted strikes” in southern Lebanon, which it said were in response to Hezbollah breaching the ceasefire. It came shortly after the IDF ordered people to flee the village of Mansouri (see previous post). We will bring you more as we get it.
Previous post
IDF issues order for people to flee homes in southern Lebanon village. The Israeli military has issued a warning for people in the southern Lebanese village of Mansouri to flee their homes. It is the first time in more than a month that the military has issued such an order ahead of an imminent strike. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has ordered people to immediately leave their homes and move at least 1km north of the village, which is located inside an area of southern Lebanon occupied by the Israeli military.
It claimed Hezbollah has breached the ceasefire agreement signed by Israel and Lebanon in June, compelling the IDF to “act forcefully against it”. Since the start of the war in March, the IDF has repeatedly ordered people to leave their homes in several towns and villages in southern Lebanon and head north, including after the ceasefire was announced. The war has displaced more than one million people, many of whom have been forced to flee multiple times.
Today’s warning came as the UN said more than 800,000 people displaced by war have begun returning to their homes, while officials from Lebanon and Israel continued US-sponsored talks in Rome aimed at ending the fighting.
Why are Iranian ballistic missiles equipped with Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicles (MaRVs) significantly more accurate over longer ranges now? (Hitting targets over 1000km range). One answer could be the integration of active Controlled Pattern Reception Antennas (CPRAs) into the MaRV of these long range ballistic missiles, to protect against GNSS (Global Satellite Navigation System) jamming and spoofing.
Here you can see a 4 element CPRA on a Kheibar Shekan MaRV
I've added an annoying red square around the 4 element CPRA, and an annoying green square around the visible element.
Very interested on exactly which satellites Iran is using for GNSS/which satellites these active antennas are receiving signals from.
Any info on if this entirely domestic production or if they are getting help from allies?
I've also heard that Iran has switched from GPS to BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS). The US has its control over GPS before to cut access or otherwise interfere, and between the 2025 and 2026 phases of the war, Iran transferred their military system's to BDS, taking it out of western control.
Yes, I'm into BDSM: BeiDou Satellite Missiles
It is not just that they switched to a non-US positioning system, BeiDou is newer, more precise and has much better anti-interference technology.
Iran transferred their military system's to BDS
As far as I know, that's just a rumor. Has it been confirmed? I just searched and couldn't find anything except pure speculation.
Unlimited BDS for the Zionist Entity!
How many thousand times is Trump going to say "We won. They are destroyed" and/or "We're about to get a good deal. Best deal. Excellent deal." and/or "We are going to destroy them."
AP - Trump says deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz could come as early as Wednesday
If a deal is made in the forest and there's no one around to hear to it, does the strait reopen?
Or perhaps consider: What is the sound of one hand shaking?
GOOD post
That deal could come! It won't but it could!
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/35740
There is allegedly a deal in the works with Oman that includes a 60-day pause on tolls...
interim deal
there’s only one man who can negotiate the terms for it 
I thought yesterday was the deadline. Surely Trump didn't go back on his threats again.
Maybe this deal/no deal dichotomy is the Sisyphean punishment he has been cursed to forever endure, and we are all just shades doomed to forever witness it. The fates have spoken
They told me I gotta push the rock up the hill. Forever. "What? Are you kidding?" - I said. "We are Gods so very strong and powerful so you can't say no," - they said. See? So I don't want to but I have to. Still - big reveal tomorrow. And every tomorrow. The '80s singer Kate Bush had a song about it and me - Push the Rock up the Hill.