this post was submitted on 17 Jul 2026
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The average life expectancy for a Russian soldier in Ukraine is between 20-30 minutes, CIA director John Ratcliffe said. Speaking at a defense summit in Pennsylvania, he attributed the deadly conditions for Vladimir Putin's forces to Ukraine's combat drones equipped with AI. "What I would say is, our intelligence is consistent with some of the open-source reporting you may have seen in Ukraine," Ratcliffe said.  "So the average life expectancy of a Russian recruit, right now, arriving on the battlefield in Ukraine, is estimated to be between 20 and 30 minutes." "And that's because AI-powered drones have gotten to be such specialized, low-cost killing machines. And it's why we're now four and a half years into that conflict," Ratcliffe added. Ukraine said this month that Russia has lost about 1.4 million soldiers since the beginning of its full-scale invasion, with over 1,000 of the Kremlin's troops killed or wounded almost every day.  In May, Ukraine's defense ministry said it was killing roughly 200 Russian soldiers for every kilometer of territory that Moscow claimed.

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[–] LodeMike@lemmy.today 13 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Ok I would make fun of Russia but I would rather not believe a CIA spook who's probably a trump appointee, of all people.

[–] MonkeMischief@lemmy.today 5 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Yeah part of this sounded like a sneaky ad for killer drones? Like to manipulate weapon stonks or something.

if you watch the drone combat sub on reddit, it is a turkey shoot and has been for well over a year. Bleak, graphic and bloody footage of first POV of human after human getting blowed up by an angry mosquito or a 2 liter bottle filled with explosives dropped from above. Sooo many, and the worst are the ones who only get injured and take their own lives than suffer any longer, all caught on drone video...Its frightening to know what the future of warfare looks like and how effective it is against walking meat sacks

[–] baller_w@lemmy.zip 28 points 2 days ago (3 children)

Honestly, my heart goes out to all these people. Every person on both sides of this senseless invasion is a person. They have parents who probably love them and want to see them again. Friends, siblings likely.

Also, Russia has a long history of conscription, right? I’m wondering how many of these soldiers want to be there.

So much senseless violence and loss of life on both sides, and for what? It’s gross.

[–] Nautalax@lemmy.world 11 points 1 day ago (3 children)

There hasn’t been much conscription on the Russian side (though recently that’s changing) because it’s tremendously politically unpopular, most people joining the war willingly sign a contract because they’re offering huge sums of money compared to what Russian people outside of the biggest cities can make.

[–] iocase@lemmy.zip 0 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

The Russians have been taking from small rural villages and newly annexed territories in the far East among ethnic minorities. They say they'll pay them well but their commanders pocket the bonuses and pay, and send the men to die in meat waves. It's only this year that the war is reaching Moscow and muscovites are forced to face the reality of war.

[–] Nautalax@lemmy.world 1 points 11 hours ago

Couple of nitpicks.

newly annexed territories in the far East

I would argue that it’s not really newly annexed as most of the far east was nabbed by the time of the 1689 Treaty of Nerchinsk and present day borders were more or less set by 1860 though some wiggling occurred in between.

They say they’ll pay them well but their commanders pocket the bonuses and pay, and send the men to die in meat waves.

Certainly Russia has huge corruption issues, this definitely happens and people run into bureaucratic issues all the time in getting what they were promised to be paid, but it’s not literally all vaporware. You need some veterans returning and be seen spending high or barring that at least their families observed spending the death benefits, if it’s all stolen in it’s entirety then your willing recruitments are going to dry up and limit you to convicts. The federal subjects of Russia have been in something of a competition with each other to recruit as many people as possible so that their heads will look good to the Kremlin so being limited like that would put them on Putin’s naughty list. Even regions like St. Petersburg that are comparatively rich (and therefore have a populace far less accepting of such a hazardous job when there are decent paying alternatives) compete in this by using their economic strength to recruit less expensive people from other poorer regions to keep their own recruitment numbers up. So there’s effectively a bidding war going on for anyone who will sign a contract nationwide. And since Russia has huge income inequality death benefits that are like a couple years worth of income in a rich region can be decades worth of income for impoverished regions even with variance in the regional contribution to the benefits. Because of this poorer federal subjects like Tuva have actually generally seen a pretty substantial growth in GRP, household bank deposits and tax returns even while bearing a disproportionate share of the deaths in the war.

So yes death is very likely and many do get scammed out of the full amount of what they were promised, but there is nevertheless still a tempting hook to draw in people. Many are one way or another securing life-changing amounts of money for themselves or their families in the poorer areas of Russia by invading Ukraine.

That said… this doesn’t seem to be a terribly stable framework. The high payouts have been funded by nationalizing oligarch assets for resale (targeting especially ones that seem less loyal), raising taxes and cracking down on local elites, raiding welfare outflows and of course selling a huge amount of natural resources, some refined. But the Ukrainian campaign against refineries and logistics has destroyed many of their best exports, reselling oligarchs property has diminishing returns (would-be oligarchs don’t want to be suckers if there’s a high risk to buy in and then wind up nationalized themselves so for saying something wrong so the Kremlin has been having to resale the properties it seizes at significant discount for them to consider it as worth it to buy the properties quickly enough for the Kremlin to get the money it needs right now), and the high taxes and low welfare combined with a gas crisis are damaging local economies and making people upset, while cracking down on elites upsets the elites. Since the point of incentivizing so many people signing contracts was to avoid public unrest, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to maintain the escalating payments necessary keep the frontlines staffed without causing public unrest anyway, you could expect for the Kremlin to stop bothering and eat the less popular ways to get more men. And indeed now you have scenes in places like Penza where men are being rounded up en masse and forced to sign contracts although that comes with problems like videos circulating of their wives demanding to say goodbye to their kidnapped husbands but not being allowed to do that and so calling on God to damn the recruiters.

[–] CultLeader4Hire@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago

ICE is operating the same way

[–] weew@lemmy.ca 3 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Probably a clause in the contract that they only get paid after returning from combat

[–] Einskjaldi@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago

No, they just don't really bother actually paying it out that much or the officer just takes it.

[–] Soup@lemmy.world 12 points 2 days ago (1 children)

The Russian people need to start saying “no”. Putin is dweeby little nothing of a creature, not a powerful sorceror. Without people to do the evil for him there is nothing.

This, in fact, is a message to all the people in the world who are just thugs for their own nasty piece of shit “leaders”.

[–] sen@lemmy.zip 15 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

If the current quality of life for young adult males in Russia isn't an eye opener for those who flirt with authoritarian leaders "for the lulz" I don't know what will get through to them.

You're not special, dear leader isn't going to offer your uneducated ass a seat at the table - you're canon fodder. End.

[–] Shellofbiomatter@lemmus.org 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

That seems to be the hardest part for way too many people to accept.

"You are not special. You're not a beautiful and unique snowflake. You're the same decaying organic matter as everything else. We're all part of the same compost heap. We're all singing, all dancing crap of the world."

So every single political or even many daily decisions people make should be from the perspective of how it effects/works for the avarage person. "But i'M spEcIaL", no you're not. None of us are.

That's completely unfathomable to me, why or how do so many people think they are special?

Life is cheap in that part of the world

[–] LodeMike@lemmy.today 13 points 1 day ago

The reason we're 4½ years into the conflict is that Putin is a piece of shit

[–] Regrettable_incident@lemmy.world 23 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (10 children)

This is great for Ukraine, but not so hot for the future of warfare. We may have to get good at building EMPs for when the urban pacification terminators come.

[–] kent_eh@lemmy.ca 5 points 1 day ago

but not so hot for the future of warfare.

Maybe the future of warfare is to figure out a better way for people to settle their differences.

That would, of course, mean we would first have to figure out how to prevent narcissistic megalomaniacs from being in positions of power.

[–] skisnow@lemmy.ca 13 points 2 days ago (14 children)

yeah I can't help but read all this as very bad news indeed in the longer term. There's nothing stopping Russia, North Korea, or indeed any random manchild billionaire deploying this tech within the coming months or years and deciding who they think should die. It's not like nukes which are difficult to get material for and difficult to build. Most of the advanced stuff is the software, which can be easily copied.

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[–] phoenixz@lemmy.ca 85 points 3 days ago (11 children)

This is good news for Ukraine

This is godawful news for humanity. I fucking guarantee you that drones like these will later be used against citizens and innocent people

[–] treadful@lemmy.zip 19 points 2 days ago (5 children)

I'm pretty surprised we haven't seen any assassinations of public figures using quadcopters yet.

These things are almost as easy to obtain and weaponize as a rifle.

[–] Duamerthrax@lemmy.world 14 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (18 children)

It's a lot easier to sight a drone one a clear day when a vip is giving a speech then it is to sight a drone 24/7 during active conflict.

It's a lot easier to jam a single drone that a nobody can buy then it is to jam a swam of drones you need a defense budget to buy.

You can spot anti-drone personal carrying HERF(high energy radio frequency) guns at major public events nowadays if you know what to look for. The simplest concept just throws enough RF static in the air to make the drone loose connection to the operator.

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[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 104 points 3 days ago (20 children)

It's not just flying drones.

I saw video of Ukraine using three tracked ground drones with machine guns in concert with multiple flying drones used to launch rockets to clear a house.

Russians were firing as they fled, but it literally doesn't matter if you shoot a land drone, they're mini tanks.

If/when AI is really running that shit, the oligarchs will stop pretending they think we're the same species.

Do people realize how fucked we'd be right now if the US army was just machines who would follow any order incapable of disobeying?

Even if we had a utopian government guaranteed to always be just, someone could just hack it.

We need to make use/development of AI like this a major war crime while we still can.

[–] MrNesser@lemmy.world 50 points 3 days ago (10 children)

Here's another worry. Once the war is over regardless of who wins you now have a large number of people specialized in drone warfare re-entering civilian life.

Going by previous wars over many years some of them will inevitably go down the mercanary route and sell those skills to the highest bidder.

[–] Quacksalber@sh.itjust.works 36 points 3 days ago (2 children)

That's why the west should step up its support to Ukraine once the war stops. All those veterans need proper care, need to be reintegrated. Need to feel seen and heard. Otherwise you'll have a bunch of unstable personalities with a lot of knowledge on how to kill people.

[–] village604@adultswim.fan 30 points 3 days ago (1 children)

The US sure as shit won't do that. Only 18% of our veterans get the benefits they're entitled to, and that was a pre-trump2 figure.

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[–] Lewo@lemmy.world 30 points 2 days ago (2 children)

The source of this claim is a tiny anonymous telegram channel, that was then cited by NY Post, which was then presumably quoted by Ratcliffe.

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[–] busted_Anoose@aussie.zone 10 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (5 children)

Pop goes the weasels. It's only a matter of time before these start being used in other countries for assassinations. scary future indeed.

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[–] interesting@sh.itjust.works 5 points 2 days ago (1 children)

is it the reason that Ukraine get more body on exchanges?

The swap took place at the Novaya Guta border checkpoint in Gomel Oblast, with Russia handing over 501 bodies of fallen soldiers and Ukraine returning 31 bodies of Russian servicemen.

https://thedefensepost.com/2026/07/17/ukraine-bodies-from-russia/

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[–] Sludgehammer@lemmy.world 26 points 3 days ago (3 children)

Keep in mind this statement is coming from Trump's CIA.

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