I'm content to admit I honestly don't know what I would do in a ridiculously contrived situation like this, and leave it at that until one actually comes up.
this post was submitted on 25 May 2026
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1.00 • 1 death = 1 death Vs. 0.25 • 5 deaths = 1.25 deaths
On average you're better off not pulling the lever.
Look at it selfishly:
- 100% chance of killing someone
- 25% chance of killing someone
Pulling the level is the only way to have a shot at not being saddled with the guilt of killing someone. Sure, killing 5 people is worse than killing 1, but avoiding that personal impact entirely is a desirable goal in and of itself.
Should you feel bad for risking it, even if you get lucky? If when you cause something by accident you don't feel as bad, you're going partly by intentions, not actual outcomes.
If I could have done something to prevent it, but chose not to, and someone died, I would feel just as bad as if I pulled the lever and killed someone.
Yeah, same.
On the other side, the law doesn't work that way - almost killing someone and actually killing someone are treated very differently. That might partly be down to how hard it would be to prove a 1/4 expected manslaughter, though.
This was my thought too, initially, but then I remembered that the first possibility happens through inaction. So I guess it depends on whether or not the person sees that as them killing someone
I can't say what is objectively true, but I can say that if I were in that situation, I absolutely would feel responsible for the outcome if I could have reasonably affected it.
Implying you'll be running this multiple times?
We have to to be sure. /s
The number of attempts is not mathematically affecting the outcome of a single attempts - statistics don't "owe you" any specific outcomes, just based on previous outcomes. It will be the same formula for each
Statistics also won't help you with the guilt when the tram runs over 5 people and now it's just you and the one guy you saved now trauma bonded.
I'm not the idiot who tues people to train tracks. I won't be feeling much guilt
What if, by taking some seemingly benign action, followed by a series of unforeseeable events, you have caused the people to be on the train tracks?
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Actually, in this case, unless they are... refilling... the hostages each run, the results of previous runs do affect each additional run. Unless you feel that running someone over the second time kills them a second time.
"aww damn, 5 people are double dead"
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Implying I haven't already
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A true degenerate would pull the lever, hit no one, and immediately pull the lever again yelling ‘double or nothing!’
Something other posters have overlooked here is that one life is guaranteed to be saved if you pull the lever. There are 5 tracks in the image, but the ratios use quarters. If you pull the lever, you have saved one life. You have a 75% chance that you have saved one life with no consequences. You have a 25% chance of killing a net of 4 people. By that method, your expected number of kills is 1, no matter your choice.
However, I really think I look at it more on the chance of good outcomes, personally. If I pull the lever I have a 75% chance of saving everyone, and only a 25% chance of bad outcomes. I can live with that choice. I can live with the decision to take action, because to not take action is still choice.
Yeah same even without all the math I'd sleep much better knowing I did something to potentially help then just lying down and doing nothing.
You can choose a ready guide in some celestial voice
If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice
You can choose from phantom fears and kindness that can kill
I will choose a path that's clear, I will choose Freewill
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Oh that's an interesting one. The expected value is higher if you pull the lever, so based on pure logic you shouldn't.
But I think I would, hoping for that 3/4 where I don't live with the guilt. I guess you can't expected value qualitative factors. But I always roll 1s in Blood Bowl so maybe that's dangerous.
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needs someone to reveal one of the tracks and ask if you want to stick or switch
See if I can't get dad's Parkinsons to pay off
25% chance is good enough odds for me to pull! 75% chance of saving everyone sounds good to me!
You’ll kill 1.25 people to save 1?
Is this because you’re bad at math, or enjoy gambling with others’ lives?
It ain't my life being risked, so I'll be a high roller in this scenario.
Edit:
My inner Uncle Steven Delanor Rancford Libby III taken over when I see 75% success chance!
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Depends on how you calculate expected value if you assume the empty tracts being taken is zero you do nothing to avoid unnecessary los of life, but if you assume those empty tracks being taken is a life saved and the value of saving a life is more than quarter of a value of losing a a life then you should pull the lever
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As many have mentioned, the expected number of deaths is 1 for no action and 1.25 if you pull the lever. Many still choose to pull the lever despite the expected number being higher. As I understand it, the reasoning is that the value of reach outcome doesn't scale linearly with the number of people alive/dead. Going from 0 deaths to 1 death is a much larger drop in value than going from 1 death to 2.
Something something one death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic.
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So, if I do nothing, I see one death, guaranteed?
I'm going with the sure thing, I'm no gambler.
Where does Monty Hall fit into all of this?
After making your choice, if Monty offers to throw away a remaining one he knows isn't the winner and trade you the other one, always do it.
On second thought I would say do nothing, because you didn't create this situation and don't even know if it's sincere. The trolley might be set to break down no matter what you do. Or possibly everybody tied to the track is an actor. Or the whole thing is wired to explode and kill everyone. Taking any action at all is cooperating with whoever set the whole thing up, thereby making you their accomplice.
He's the middle guy on the 5 person track.
These are genuinely good odds to me, to I'm pulling.
If a gambler kills 5 ppl they will never stop pulling that lever
this is a stats problem. you have a 2 in 5 chance of someone getting killed.
without doing the math I'd say you have a 20% chance of killing someone by pulling the lever but have a 100% chance by doing nothing.
I'll take my chances and pull the lever three times which should reduce that 20% to about 10%.
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I would ask them
what company manufactured the trolley ? it is injured ?
The initial track has an expected death rate of 1, but that changes to 0 if we flip. So wouldn't we calculate out of 5 tracks for the denominator, meaning the expected death toll is 1 either way?
I understand the math of an expected death of 1.25 (1/4 x 5) and the concept of independent probabilities, but I am not sure we can disregard the knowledge that we are on a track that will have zero probability if we switch..
This reminds me of The Monty Hall problem. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem) but that may not apply at all. Does someone with a stat background know which is the correct conceptualization?
We are told the probabilities directly. Expected deaths as number of trials approaches infinity when switching the lever is 0¾+5¼ which equals 1.25. Better odds than gamblers face by a long shot but not good.
When you flip it the original track is no longer possible, so it would not be considered. If it was considered, you would also have to consider the one person on that track. If all 5 tracks were equally likely the expected value would be 1.2 deaths.
This doesn't seem like it is similar to Monty Hall. In Monty Hall you win by switching every time unless you picked the winning door first. That's why you have a 2/3 chance to win by switching. This is just a random chance.
I think counting for Expected Value, leaving it is the best choice.
That said I'm pulling it. I'm ready to roll those dice.
With the luck that I have? Hell no!
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