this post was submitted on 25 May 2026
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Oh that's an interesting one. The expected value is higher if you pull the lever, so based on pure logic you shouldn't.
But I think I would, hoping for that 3/4 where I don't live with the guilt. I guess you can't expected value qualitative factors. But I always roll 1s in Blood Bowl so maybe that's dangerous.
No it's 1 either way, right?
It's 1 if you do nothing. 0 or 5 if you pull. There's four tracks when you pull so on average it will result in 1.25 deaths.
I think the calculus comes down to “will I feel 5x worse if five people die than if just one dies?” Chances are, no, it is more of a binary yes/no for feeling guilty. So from a purely selfish standpoint I want to minimize the chances I will walk away regretting my decision. That means pulling the lever.