this post was submitted on 18 May 2026
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Fuck AI

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AI, in this case, refers to LLMs, GPT technology, and anything listed as "AI" meant to increase market valuations.

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Excerpt:

The IPO Math Forces the Issue

Both OpenAI and Anthropic are on IPO timelines for the second half of 2026. OpenAI completed the largest private funding round in history in April, $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation. Anthropic has reportedly surpassed $30 billion in annualized revenue. Massive numbers, both of them. Also both attached to companies that are still burning cash at extraordinary rates.

Public markets will not tolerate the gap between subscription revenue and compute cost that has defined the past three years. The moment either company files, analysts will demand unit economics that show a path to margin. Usage-based billing is the fastest way to demonstrate that path.

None of this contradicts the repricing thesis. The pricing war is the last land grab before the gate closes. Both companies are spending aggressively now to lock in users whose switching costs will make them sticky when prices rise. OpenAI offers two months free. Anthropic offers 50% more capacity. Both expire in July. What comes after July is the real pricing.

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[–] rekabis@lemmy.ca 43 points 6 days ago (2 children)

So first they get devs hooked on AI.

Then they watch and wait as dev skills degrade. Like, the actual skills to get the work done without AI.

Then, once devs are unable to be productive without AI anymore, they turn down the screws, pulling profit from those who cannot do without anymore.

It’s a tactic of capitalism that is as old as time. But I think it’s been done too quickly this time, as there are still plenty of devs which have sat on the sidelines, waiting for things to shake out, and who haven’t had their skills erode away from AI usage because they just haven’t been relying on it or even using it.

[–] Yeller_king@reddthat.com 6 points 6 days ago (2 children)

Problem is there is tons of competition and anyone with a video card can run models on their PC for the cost of electricity.

[–] axexrx@lemmy.world 10 points 5 days ago

Thats why theyre trying to buy up all the hardware-

[–] Auli@lemmy.ca 2 points 5 days ago

No where as good or fast. And somebody has to make the model.

EEE all over again.

[–] whalebiologist@lemmy.world 16 points 6 days ago

This is article slop, please don't make me read things that were written by bots, have no authors, feature ai generated images, citing themselves as a source... People would happily Ai-generate anti-ai blog posts and sell them to us all day long if we let them.

[–] jonathan@piefed.social 24 points 6 days ago (1 children)

The headline seems way off from the content. It talks about planned IPOs as the basis, and somehow a "time bomb went off" "in real time". What kind of chronology is that. I've read better AI generated stories than this dogshit click bait.

[–] quick_snail@feddit.nl 10 points 6 days ago (3 children)

My first thought is that companies that built dependence on AI workflows will just start hiring humans again.

But I think it's more likely they'll just switch to free, self-hosted AI models.

[–] magic_smoke@lemmy.blahaj.zone 4 points 5 days ago (1 children)

The whole point of cloud was that renting wholesale infrastructure is cheaper and less hassle than building your own.

There's no way anything but a sliver of dependent companies are capable of hosting to their needs.

[–] quick_snail@feddit.nl 1 points 5 days ago

Nah, LLMs are small and easy to run

[–] ICastFist@programming.dev 7 points 6 days ago (1 children)

But I think it’s more likely they’ll just switch to free, self-hosted AI models.

Implying anyone left there will even have the know-how to set one up

[–] quick_snail@feddit.nl 1 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

Wow, you just convinced me to learn how to do something with AI.

It'll be a very useful skill to help companies migrate from third party to self hosted AI in the next decade

[–] Cityshrimp@lemmy.world 6 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Still not “free” even if self-hosted and I would think perf and accuracy would be noticeably worse.

My company started using AI in coding process a lot more now but its only because the AI responses are useful 80% of the time. If its lower than that, not worth the time to use for most tasks.

[–] quick_snail@feddit.nl 2 points 5 days ago

I don't really think it matters. Companies that have adopted AI are already fucked. It hurts more then helps.

But they'll be willing to thow VC money at hiring people to setup AI systems, despite how much worse it leaves them

[–] zeroConnection@programming.dev 7 points 6 days ago (2 children)

There's a mass move to Chinese models now, which are like 10 times cheaper already, and will probably be about 50 times cheaper when the new pricing kicks in for Claude and Codex.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 1 points 5 days ago

Chinese model labs are still doing token (monthly) bundles, too. Core problem is that bundles only work when most people don't use up the limit. US models have high cash burn and low margins even at high token prices.

[–] Buddahriffic@lemmy.world 2 points 6 days ago

Not to mention China could subsidise them just to pressure the US companies even more.

I wonder if they are timing it for the price increase to let them stick to the promotions that cost them more before pulling the rug. Could even be a win to open source them if the US government tries to block it.

[–] melsaskca@lemmy.ca 4 points 6 days ago (2 children)

This reminds me of the "pet rock" craze in the early 70's. Everyone as getting them. They were everywhere. Myself, and a few others, never got one and never did. The whole "pet rock" thing came and went and passed us by. I plan to do the same for "AI".

[–] mcepl@lemmy.world 2 points 5 days ago (1 children)

You missed on a lot with a pet rock, my daughter discovered them just a few years ago and was completely in heaven from the idea. Perhaps, the similar with AI?

[–] melsaskca@lemmy.ca 1 points 5 days ago

Dammit! After hearing this maybe I should have tried harder to grab that brass ring. Life holds some regret for us all, I guess.

[–] tronx4002@lemmy.world 1 points 5 days ago

Man, comparing AI to a pet rock is crazy delusional.

[–] Damage@feddit.it 2 points 6 days ago (2 children)

Didn't Amazon sail on while losing money for years as a public company? Why would super-hyped businesses like these have issues?

[–] phcorcoran@lemmy.world 7 points 6 days ago (1 children)

According to Ed Zitron, AWS cost about $52 billion between 2003 and 2017 (adjusted for inflation), and became profitable after that. OpenAI did 13 funding rounds at a total of $180 billion and the signs are that they are burning through that capital at an accelerated pace and nowhere near profitable. The scale isn't quite the same

https://www.wheresyoured.at/premium-ai-isnt-too-big-to-fail/

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 1 points 4 days ago

a lot of that article is about too big to fail (title, even! though its mostly at the end). We do need to worry about the last gasps of the empire clinging to the bubble by grasping for such bailouts.

[–] ICastFist@programming.dev 3 points 6 days ago

Adding more context to what phcorcoran said, AWS was something that actually had an "end goal". A new company offering cloud servers where you can host your stuff to be reached by the internet at large, which was already a proven necessity even back in 2003.

AI is still trying to sell itself as something useful. Not only that, the fixed monthly cost makes zero sense, because tokens have an actual monetary value - there is a cost in processing, cooling, network, etc, which can be attached to it. You'd need an army of low-usage users to pay for the power users^[you know those f2p games where the players who use their credit cards are above all others? The free players' value is in being the punching bag of the paying players. Now imagine the reverse: you need to recruit 20 paying players, who are ok to take a beating, to keep one unprofitable whale in the game. It makes no business sense, but it's exactly what's going on at the moment with their monthly rates. It's no wonder every other week, AI users are reaching their monthly limit faster and faster] to have it make any sense. The alternative is actually charging per token, like pay 10 dollars and get 1k tokens or whatever.

[–] stoly@lemmy.world 68 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Honestly: those who based a business model on this are probably bad business people.

[–] Fmstrat@lemmy.world 1 points 3 days ago

Yup. And vendor lock in? As soon as prices go up, people will realize they can use Zed, Continue.dev, OpenWebUI, or any other FOSS system and point them at Claude or OpenAI or whatever APIs, lock in won't matter.

[–] Carnelian@lemmy.world 29 points 1 week ago (2 children)

I feel for the employees whose lives will be tumulted by their moronic management who went “all in”

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[–] UnspecificGravity@piefed.social 47 points 1 week ago (2 children)

The idea of people investing billions based on "annualized revenue" tells me that rich people have too much fucking money.

[–] dumnezero@piefed.social 19 points 1 week ago

Money is 100% wasted on the rich.

[–] yakko@feddit.uk 23 points 1 week ago

They've literally never had this much more, proportionally. If this isn't too much, there's no such thing.

[–] Naich@piefed.world 32 points 1 week ago (3 children)

Enshittification in 5... 4... 3...

[–] BradleyUffner@lemmy.world 11 points 1 week ago (1 children)

How do you enshittify shit?

[–] Tronn4@lemmy.world 11 points 6 days ago (1 children)

AI.... now with CoPilot! 🙃🙂

[–] BradleyUffner@lemmy.world 5 points 6 days ago

It's the turducken of shit!

[–] clucose@lemmy.ml 22 points 1 week ago

it started shit.

[–] Thorry@feddit.org 18 points 1 week ago

Microsoft has already raised prices with their Github Copilot service. In some cases the new price is 27x higher. And the actually useful models are only available in the super expensive plan (and then also incur high fees for actually using it).

[–] brucethemoose@lemmy.world 28 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (4 children)

How does this work when “good enough” AI like Deepseek V4, GLM and such are so dirt cheap they’re basically free for businesses? And available from tons of providers, or even self hostable?

And that’s only going to get exponentially more dramatic. Bitnet models + nonlinear attention + ASICs alone is at least an order of magnitude cost drop, though there’s tons of lower hanging fruit to pick.


AI is a race to the bottom, not the top. Intelligence has basically topped out, efficiency has not. It’s never going to replace most workers, but just assist them or automate dumb tasks, increasingly cheaply.

And Tech Bros can’t make trillions off of that.

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[–] ininewcrow@lemmy.ca 18 points 1 week ago (2 children)

The rich have already cashed out and secured their fortunes

It's the suckers, losers, poors and those who think they know better who are all going to lose everything

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[–] plyth@feddit.org 11 points 1 week ago (1 children)

The real pricing will come when companies can't go back to regular workers, as predicted here: https://feddit.org/post/30017257

[–] davidgro@lemmy.world 11 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Apparently that post is gone?

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