this post was submitted on 16 Mar 2026
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(credit to RomCom1989 for the title)

A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of an Iranian soldier exulting in the launch of a ballistic missile aimed towards the imperialists.


short summary this week: US doing pretty bad and Iran doing pretty good all things considered, Strait of Hormuz is closed and will almost certainly remain so until the end of the war, Trump has no idea what to do, global economic crisis from strait closure is basically guaranteed at this point but who will ultimately benefit most and who will ultimately lose most is still up in the air.

longish summary is below in the spoiler tags

longish summary

While there are still major debates raging about how badly things are actually going right now and what the post-conflict map may look like, as we blaze past the two week mark on this conflict, it's becoming ever more obvious to almost everybody involved that this war is not going according to plan, if there ever was one. US airstrikes are, from what I can best determine, still mostly done with relatively less powerful (but still very dangerous!) and much less plentiful standoff munitions launched from bombers, though certain border and coastal areas are being struck with more powerful and more plentiful short-range guided bombs. This indicates that Iranian air defense is still sufficiently functional throughout most of Iran that the kinds of true carpet bombing done against Korea and Vietnam in the past (and Gaza very recently) is still too risky, though their airspace is still very much under assault, as we appear to have images of small groups of Western fighters breaching relatively deep into the country. Under some kind of Iranian pressure (drones? missiles? speedboats?) one aircraft carrier has retreated to a thousand kilometers from Iran, hiding behind the mountains of Oman; the other is sitting in the Red Sea, rather pointedly out of range of Yemen. As such, the ranges that Western aircraft must travel to bombard Iran is increasing, which reduces their frequency and increases strain on maintenance and logistics in the medium and long term.

While there is tons to say about the current social, economic, and military state of Iran, I don't think I have a reliable enough picture to give a good summary beyond "they aren't close to defeat or regime change". What has instead captured much of the world's attention is the continuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has inspired some of the most delusional statements I have seen so far in my life, which is sincerely a profound achievement. For those out of the loop: the strait is currently closed to all shipping except those going to very particular countries (I've seen China and Bangladesh mentioned, and apparently India is in the process of working something out and may succeed or fail). This is because most ships are not risking the trip due to the ~20 tankers and container ships that Iran has already struck and disabled in the strait and in the Persian Gulf. Additionally, the threat from Iran's military to Navy ships is such that attempting to create a convoy to guide tankers through it is suicidal to both the Navy and merchant ships. Right now it cannot be done, and it very well might be the case that it could never be done, simply due to the combination of Iran's naval forces (hundreds, perhaps thousands, of armed, specialized speedboats designed for exactly this purpose), their drones (in the tens of thousands), their torpedoes, and if all else fails, their naval mines.

The Western reaction to this has been so moronic that it has almost integer underflowed into being philosophical: what does it truly mean for a passage to be "closed"? Has Iran truly "closed" the strait, or is the risk of traversing it simply too high for these cowardly sailors (who, for some strange reason, seem to care about their "lives" and "families")? How is it possible for Iran to have closed the strait if, according to the West, Iran's military has been totally obliterated? All these questions and more plague the minds of those who cannot accept the now-proven fact that there are indeed military forces on this planet that the US Navy with all its aircraft carriers and destroyers and submarines cannot defeat; and one of those minds is, rather hilariously, Trump himself. His thrice-daily positive affirmations that Iran has been defeated are taking on an increasingly deranged and almost pitiable tone; the lamentations of a man who has finally found a situation where him merely stating that something is true is insufficient to change the situation one iota. Despite stating that some kind of naval compact or alliance is being established to protect shipping, every Western country so far - from the UK, to France, to Japan, to Australia - has publicly stated that they will not risk their ships to do so. All this as the continued blockade yet further guarantees a worldwide energy, production, transportation, and food crisis that will have major global ramifications for at least the rest of the decade and almost certainly beyond.

If the anti-imperialists play their cards right, the US could lose much from this crisis, and others, like China and Russia, could gain a great deal. To quote Nia Frome (co-founder of Red Sails): "An effective Marxist has to be enough of an accelerationist/pervert to treat the obviously bad things that are going to happen as the political opportunities they are."


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 7 points 39 minutes ago (1 children)

seems like there's been another ban/suspension wave

https://xcancel.com/Jangjouye/status/2033809314067189827

It was unclear where this account got its information from, but it posted detailed photos of the places that Israel and America had attacked. He had two million followers. And that's it. We need to migrate to another app. The longer we delay this, the more it will cost us.

https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2033747386686640195

Bragging about how many bots you've banned for posting AI slop and then suspending an invaluable source of slop-free reporting like @bonzerbarry is ridiculous

at this point, you can probably assume that for any OSINT account you're posting, there's a decent chance it's been left up for a reason - either because they're not going to report on Israeli losses, or because they're AI-slop posters making outrageous claims for the other side which discredits the Resistance information sphere (funny how those folks seem to not get banned)

[–] spectre@hexbear.net 4 points 27 minutes ago (1 children)

It's wild to me that they wouldn't mirror their content to their own single-user mastodon instance, but I guess that would require technical skill and time or good documentation.

[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 2 points 8 minutes ago* (last edited 7 minutes ago)

seems like the 2nd account mentioned does have some alternative source, https://share.upscrolled.com/en/user/4ba0c960-f215-4ddf-b61c-8e894df2a254, but I've never used upscrolled so I'm not sure how to access it, I'm generally reluctant to install any unnecessary apps so any service which isn't accessible via browser is something I'm less likely to use (and this doesn't have a desktop version anyway, I'm not gonna do my war-news-gathering from a phone, come on, how are you even supposed to view the big beautiful maps on such a small screen catgirl-disgust )

[–] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 4 points 17 minutes ago

So based on statements by the Saudi defense ministry, take a look at this chart of attacks on Saudi bases:

As is clearly evident, the number of attacks is increasing, despite Iran's military capabilities being 100% destroyed (real)[confirmed]{I swear it} it-is-known. To my mind, this implies Iran has pretty much exhausted military targets close to Iran, and is searching far afield for more American hardware to hit. I'm not sure if that's the right read here, but regardless this kind of information is not exactly encouraging for the Epstein Coalition.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 2 points 6 minutes ago

NYT update

Israel attempted to kill one of Iran’s most powerful leaders, Ali Larijani, in a strike overnight on Tuesday, according to three Israeli military officials. The officials — who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive subject — could not immediately confirm if Larijani had been killed. Larijani is the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and a close confidant of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on Feb. 28, the first day of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 2 points 45 minutes ago* (last edited 5 minutes ago)

https://xcancel.com/cym27s/status/2033706734682771794

A reported hydraulic problem involving a U.S. KC-135R refueling tanker. The plane came all the way from Iraq and is currently circling off the Israeli coast, expected to land shortly at Ben Gurion Airport

well, you know, planes sometimes just do that

(The thing is, when you have a decaying fleet of half-century-old planes, they do just do that - by the end of this, the US may well have lost more equipment to attrition and user error than to actual combat. It's easy to kind of start dooming about the US's ability to just bomb anyone in the world, but you have to remember that this capability isn't free - all these constant deployments wear down equipment, they wear down people, and this isn't the Cold War anymore, the industrial capability to actually keep regularly replacing this equipment doesn't exist anymore - there were 803 KC-135s built in 10 years, with 376 still in service (soon to be 362, and this isn't counting the losses from this conflict), and they're going to be replaced by the KC-46, of which 110 have been built in a slightly longer period, and of which they plan to procure 179, possibly to be increased to 188)

[–] hellinkilla@hexbear.net 19 points 4 hours ago (4 children)

I made a list of how countries are landing with public statements about backing of USIsrael in Straight of Hormuz.

  • Some countries listed twice due to different reports or interpretation on my part
  • All source links and quotes in spoiler

Hard Nos: Italy, Greece, Australia, Japan, Poland, Sweden, Spain, France, China, Canada

Soft Nos: Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Japan

Maybe: Denmark, South Korea, UK, France, Italy, Greece, India

Yes: France

sourcesTrump says Hormuz Strait help ‘on the way’ as allies reject military action | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

Trump identified China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom as countries that should join the coalition.

Australia, Japan, Poland and Sweden and Spain saying they had no intentions of sending military ships.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius saying that there would be “no military participation”

South Korea and the UK have said they were reviewing the situation. The UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer said it was discussing the possibility of offering its mine-hunting drones in the region, but maintained the UK would “not be drawn into the wider war”.

France has indicated more willingness to help.

Without specifying a country, Trump pointed to one apparent rebuff.

“We have some countries where we have 45,000 soldiers … protecting them from harm’s way and we have done a great job,” he said. “And well, we want to know, do you ‌have any mine sweepers? ‘Well, would rather not get involved, sir.'”

European leaders reject military involvement in Strait of Hormuz | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten told the country’s ANP news agency that it would be “very difficult to launch a successful mission there in the short term”.

Lithuania and Estonia said NATO countries should consider a US request for help, but cautioned over the need for greater clarity around various aspects of any potential mission.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna also said that US allies in Europe want to understand Trump’s “strategic goals”. “What will be the plan?” he asked.

Greek government spokesman ⁠Pavlos ⁠Marinakis said ⁠that Greece ⁠would not ⁠engage in ⁠any military operations ‌in the Strait of Hormuz.

Italian Foreign ⁠Minister Antonio ⁠Tajani said Italy was not involved in any naval missions that could be ‌extended to the area.

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said, however, that Europe should keep an open mind ⁠on helping to ensure freedom of navigation in the strait even if the continent did not support the ⁠US-Israeli decision to go to war with Iran.

“We must face the world as it is, not as we want it to be,” Rasmussen said, adding that the EU must decide on a plan “with a view towards de-escalation”.

Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski invited the Trump administration to go through the proper channels.

“If there is a request via NATO, we will, of course, out of respect and sympathy for our American allies, consider it very carefully,” he said.

How countries are responding to Trump’s call to send ships to Strait of Hormuz | The Independent

Japan and Australia have said they currently have no plans to send naval ships to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, despite pressure from Washington.

However, Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi said the US had yet to make any formal request for assistance.

“We have not made any decisions whatsoever about dispatching escort ships. We are continuing to examine what Japan can do independently and what can be done within the legal framework,” she said.

Australia has also rejected calls to provide naval support to secure shipping in the strait. “We’ve been very clear about what our contribution is to requests and so far that is to the UAE obviously providing aircraft to assist with defence particularly given the number of Australians that are in that area in particular,” transport minister Catherine King said.

“We won’t be sending a ship to the Strait of Hormuz,” Ms King said.

France has ruled out sending additional military forces, saying its current posture aims to maintain regional stability rather than escalate tensions.

South Korea has not committed either way, saying they’ll “continue to communicate closely with the US regarding this matter and make a decision after careful review”.

Trump’s call for allied deployment to strait of Hormuz meets muted response | Strait of Hormuz | The Guardian

“I’m very clear and firm on this topic; at this point, there is no question of sending any vessels to the strait of Hormuz,” said Vautrin. She said that France maintained a “purely defensive position” and there were no current plans to move the French navy’s flagship vessel, the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, out of the eastern Mediterranean.

According to the Financial Times, EU foreign affairs ministers are also considering widening the scope of the EU’s Aspides naval mission, which provides protection to ships in Yemen from attacks by Houthi rebels, to extend to the strait of Hormuz. At present, the Aspides naval mission consists of three ships, from France, Italy and Greece.

The Chinese embassy in Washington said at the weekend in a statement given to CNN that Beijing would work to strengthen “communication with relevant parties” in the Middle East and “play a constructive role for deescalation and restoration of peace”.

Iran war: Trump urges China, other nations, to send warships to secure Hormuz | South China Morning Post

Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson from the Chinese embassy in Washington, called for an immediate stop to military operations in the area, adding that “keeping the region safe and stable serves the common interests of the international community”.

Mark Carney meets Keir Starmer in London amid Iran war

Bill Blair, Canada's high commissioner in the U.K., said ahead of the meeting that Canada supports efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, but is not getting directly involved in the conflict

India says no talks with US on warship deployment in Hormuz after Trump's appeal - India Today

Responding to questions at a media briefing on whether the US had approached India to send its warships to the region and New Delhi’s stance on the issue, External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said India has not engaged in bilateral talks with Washington on the matter.

“We are aware of this particular matter being discussed by several countries. We have not yet discussed it in a bilateral setting,” Jaiswal said. He added that India will continue discussions with several stakeholders regarding the issue.

Separately, in an interview with the Financial Times, he warned that "if there's no response or if it's a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of Nato."


[–] joaomarrom@hexbear.net 7 points 1 hour ago

Hard Yes Please Daddy Let Me Send All My Boats To Die For You: Argentina

[–] coolusername@hexbear.net 8 points 3 hours ago

France is no now

[–] SickSemper@hexbear.net 16 points 4 hours ago (2 children)

Is France conditioning their assistance on the war being over or was that missing?

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 5 points 2 hours ago

conditioning their assistance on the war being over

You could apply this caveat to everyone. No one is risking their warships to anti ship missile and USV barrages now. They'll only arrive if or when "threat neutralisation" is complete.

[–] hellinkilla@hexbear.net 7 points 4 hours ago

I also found that now that I look closer.

Maybe they have substantial disagreements internally?

spoilerDonald Trump attacks Sir Keir Starmer’s ‘terrible’ leadership over Iran war

Reporter: Have you been speaking with President Macron about the coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?

@POTUS: "Yeah, I have spoken to him. He's been, on a scale of 0-10, I'd say he's been an 8. Not perfect — but it's France."

pic.twitter.com/VqCGUHUFDa— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) March 16, 2026

France is one of the few nations that have proposed using European warships to escort vessels through the strait, but only after fighting subsides and with permission from Iran.

Why France is bolstering military presence in the Middle East, as Macron prepares for postwar talks - New Delhi Times

“We are not at war with anyone,” Macron said.

Still, the large-scale deployment of the French navy — which he described as “unprecedented” — has made France the European nation with the most prominent presence in the region.

Visiting the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier last week, Macron said that its presence in the Mediterranean demonstrates “France’s strength: a balancing power, a force for peace.”

There's more about france boat stuff in that article.


[–] Sickos@hexbear.net 6 points 4 hours ago

Please French government go all in so the people show america how it's done marx-guns-blazing

[–] RobnHood@hexbear.net 46 points 6 hours ago

North Korea Just Overtook the U.S. in Destroyer Construction.

spoiler

North Korean shipyards have overtaken those of the United States in the construction of ocean-going surface combat ships, with the shipbuilding industry having launched two destroyers in 2025, and scheduled to launch two more every year for the next five years under the next Five Year Plan, bringing total numbers in the water to 12 by the end of 2030. The U.S., by contrast, has been building Arleigh Burke class destroyers at rates of just 1.6 per year.

While the contraction in U.S. production of surface warships has declined much more slowly than the contraction of the civilian shipbuilding industry, the fall in the number of surface combat ships, and in the total tonnage launched per year has nevertheless been tremendous. North Korea, by contrast, had negligible industry for producing modern service ships until the 2020s, with limited resources concentrated on the submarine fleet.

Although unfortunately the Korean People’s Navy likely doesn’t have as advanced systems as the usn does, it does show how unserious the us currently is about shipbuilding.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 25 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago) (1 children)

Mine sweeper question

Edit.

~~Is this Bluesky comment actually true?~~

Man, Bluesky gets worse by the day.

What's the status of US mine sweepers. How many do they have? Etc.

[–] RobnHood@hexbear.net 20 points 5 hours ago (3 children)

The us is in the process of decommissioning the final 8 avenger-class minesweepers, 4 arrived in Philadelphia for scrapping last week from the Middle East (see picture). The remaining 4 are currently stationed in Japan. They are/were the only *dedicated * minesweepers operated by the usn. They are being replaced by the oft derided “freedom-class” littoral combat ships (american for frigate) which can be outfitted with a mine countermeasure module, although I cannot find how many ships are/can be equipped with this.

However, the most important tools for enforcing a blockade of the Strait are aerial and naval one-way attack drones. I haven’t been able to find any verified reports that the IRGC have deployed naval mines and I haven’t thus far been able to determine what naval mining capabilities the IRGC had before the start of the war.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 4 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

The Avenger class ships also had wooden hulls and were rather outdated. There are three LCS' with the MCM package in the region, but only one is in the Middle East currently, the other two have moved to Malaysia, I'm guessing that they plan to link up with the USS Tripoli which is currently heading towards the Middle East. The LCS should be more modern, but it's the LCS so it's unreasonable to say the least.

[–] coolusername@hexbear.net 9 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

The entire mine thing was just propaganda to get oil futures down. They made up the problem and presented a solution. (Iran deployed mines, we blew up the mining ships)

[–] Pentacat@hexbear.net 5 points 3 hours ago

That’s a bingo.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 11 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago) (1 children)

4 arrived in Philadelphia for scrapping last week from the Middle East (see picture).

Are they in terrible shape? Why did they leave the Middle East? Why didn't the Pentagon send them to a close but safe spot around the strait of Strait of Hormuz?

[–] RobnHood@hexbear.net 12 points 5 hours ago

They are in terrible shape. They are all at least 30+ years old and probably reached their lifespan at least 5 years ago.

They left the Middle East only after they were replaced by littoral combat ships outfitted with mine countermeasure modules as stipulated by the last funding bill.

[–] SickSemper@hexbear.net 22 points 6 hours ago

Oh good, I was worried for a second there

[–] seaposting@hexbear.net 24 points 6 hours ago

The Phillipines amidst the war against Iran

The Epstein class war against Iran has showcased that many vassals in East Asia may also become targets in the fallout.

read more

Repercussions from the war has already hit many countries across the globe where it especially hurts: energy and food. There has been longstanding arguments if Southeast Asia will fall into deindustrialization and "Latin Americanization", marked by intense class differentiation, extractivism and dependency.

Out of the main ASEAN-6 countries, the one that arguably fits the bill best would be the Phillipines; a Spanish colonial past with American intervention, prevalence of drug trafficking and rotational theatre of military dictatorships and political dynasties.

The current situation doesn't paint a pretty picture for the country. Heavy reliant on "service-based growth" through BPOs and out-migration for remittances, surface-level statistics like GDP growth showcase a relatively okay picture. Looking deeper, however, the country is an overwhelming net oil importer with more than 95% coming from the Persian Gulf (with 60days of reserve), and a net food importer, importing almost double what it exports. Increased logistical costs from risk premiums and higher fuel oil prices further adds to the perfect storm. Adding in a record low of nearly 60 pesos to a dollar, the 2nd most populous SEA country may face the most severe ramifications of the war in Asia.

Notably, the countries also hosts EDCA sites that are technically not US bases, but:

if these EDCA sites walk like military bases, then they function like military bases. Under EDCA, the U.S. gets dedicated access to “agreed locations,” including the ability to:

• Rotate U.S. troops in and out

• Preposition U.S. military equipment, assets, and supplies

• Build/upgrade facilities

• Use the site for military logistics and operations

You can call it a “shared facilities” all day, but OPERATIONALLY, in any eventuality, they become and are forward staging nodes for the U.S. That’s base-like behavior, base-like utility, and base-like consequences.

What had lead to this current conundrum?

Of course the reality is the sort of comprador capitalism further weakened by neoliberal reforms enacted at the behest of Western Financial Capital through the World Bank in the 1980s. Persistently weak institutions coupled with foreign-imposed restrictions on state capacity building and false growth models adds to a perfect storm that ultimately leaves the Philippine masses at the behest of a global market whose sole purpose is surplus extraction and accumulation. The nation is now scrambling and pleading that other countries "honor oil pacts amid export curbs", showcasing the subjugated nature of the State to foreign actors.

The other side of this story is also persistent ideological confusion and disunity within the Philippine left. As argued by Docena in their article "Is the Philippines a ‘semi-feudal’ or a ‘backward capitalist’ society?: A Review of Recent Data",

Instead of merely upholding orthodoxy and applying Marxist concepts mechanically, they used them creatively to build on the idea that social formations can actually be mongrel or `articulated.' By doing so, they helped us overcome the limits of existing Marxist conventions. As other scholars have pointed out, however, both Sison and Legman nonetheless appear to hold on to one orthodox assumption: that societies are to be considered hybrid or otherwise by judging them against those societies that first became capitalist. Indeed, both Sison's description of Philippine society as being some kind of 'bastard' offspring of the coupling of imperialism and feudalism, on one hand and bagman's statement that the country has been "afflicted by an abnormality in its fetal stage," on the other, seem to imply a teleological view of historical development Both scholars appear to assume that there are "normal" stages and outcomes of historical development: those followed and exemplified by the likes of England, France, or the United States. Both scholars could be read as implying that societies becoming capitalist will eventually reach a common destination: a society with modern industry and a fully proletarianized producing class.

...Closely linked to these theoretical questions are urgent strategic questions: If feudalism has all but been eroded in the country, does it still make sense to aim at overthrowing feudalism or its vestiges? If the bourgeoisie has waged a "passive revolution," should the still aim at waging a "bourgeois democratic" revolution or does it need to pursue a very different kind of revolution altogether? If the peasantry is disintegrating, does it still make sense to count on them as the "main force" of this revolution? If the Philippine state has become more hegemonic (while still being repressive), must the revolutionary road go through a "protracted people's war" or an urban insurrection—or is there another way? If guerilla warfare or simple "wars of maneuver" hold little promise of victory given the new defenses built up by the state, to what should we be enjoining the youth and the oppressed to devote their lives instead? What sort of revolutionary strategy is more appropriate for the kind of society the Philippines has become?

As the peoples lives worsen, and potentially revolutionary conditions emerge, these questions need to be answered and strategically carried forward into practice. Time will again tell the significance of West Asia in a global and fracturing capitalist system marked by cyclical crises.

[–] RobnHood@hexbear.net 33 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago) (6 children)

Video showing Iraqi PMF fpv drone flying freely through the us embassy in Baghdad. Telegram Link. I am pretty confident it is real, it’s definitely the us embassy in the video and the weather matches. Pretty damming evidence against C-RAM being effective against fpv drones. This one was just a recon drone, the next ones will surly be armed.

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[–] Weydemeyer@lemmy.ml 49 points 7 hours ago (6 children)

The Trump administration has told Cuban negotiators that President Miguel Díaz-Canel must step down for meaningful progress in U.S.–Cuba talks, according to people familiar with the negotiations, the New York Times reports.

U.S. officials are reportedly seeking Díaz-Canel’s removal as a symbolic political concession while pushing Havana to open parts of its economy to American business and release political prisoners. The proposal would not target the Castro family, which still holds significant influence behind the scenes. Díaz-Canel, president since 2018, the Times reports is seen as a leader with limited real authority within Cuba’s power structure, where the military-linked conglomerate GAESA and senior Communist Party figures wield major control.

I don’t think the Cuban government is opposed to some capitalist investment from the US (done along doi moi lines for example). Releasing political prisoners… not great but given the circumstances you can always just keep them under surveillance and then re-arrest when Trump is gone. But the part about Diaz-Canel stepping down… that one is interesting. It’s not like he’s a hardliner sitting atop a bunch of liberals who want to replace him. I don’t think whoever would succeed him or whoever would be chosen by the National Assembly would be meaningfully less committed to the revolution and the socialist project. I’m assuming what the US is not saying here is that they want to select who it would be to replace Diaz-Canel, because they will presumably choose a gusano who will rip the heart out of the country.

Source (Drop Site News tweet)

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