new zitron https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-bubble-2027/
this post was submitted on 24 Aug 2025
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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I like how Zitron does a good job of distinguishing firm overall predictions from specific scenarios (his chaos bets) which are plausible but far from certain. AI 2027 specifically conflated and confused those things in a way that gave it's proponents more rhetorical room to hide and dodge.
Zitron taking every opportunity to shit on Scott's AI2027 is kind of cathartic, ngl
I like how he doesn't even bother debunking it point by point, he just slams the very premise of it and moves on.
it's a long one and right behind paywall there's a
Table Of Contents
How I Am Justifying "Guessing"
NVIDIA, And What Will Happen Soonest
Nevertheless, NVIDIA Will Accelerate The Collapse If Its Stock Falters
Big Tech's Bubble Burst Moment Will Be When Growth Slows
Capital Expenditures Are The Next Thing To Go
CoreWeave — A Timebomb For The Markets and AI Writ Large
How Does CoreWeave Collapse?
The End Of AI Startup Funding
How The Collapse Of Funding Begins — A Scenario (Chaos Bet)
Costs Are A Brewing Scandal In Generative AI — Another Chaos Bet
The Curious World of Anthropic and OpenAI, And My Own Suspicions About Their Businesses
How About Anthropic's Costs?
An Important Note: Anthropic and OpenAI's Costs Are Dramatically Underrepresented Because Neither Company Pays For The Construction Of (Or Owns) Their Infrastructure
Questions About OpenAI's Revenue And Costs
OpenAI Is Using Cal State's "Edu" Contracts To Pump Its Paid Business User Numbers — And It's Unclear How Long It Keep A User In Its Numbers
What About Government Contracts?
OpenAI Is Using "$1 for a Month" Subscription Deals On Teams To Juice Business User Numbers — And Offering Deals For ChatGPT Plus For $10-a-month To Stop User Churn (REMINDER: OpenAI Loses Money On Every User Anyway)
I Believe OpenAI's Costs Are Worse Than They Seem — Where Is All The Money Going?
OpenAI Will Burn At Least $3 Billion On Salaries In 2025, And May Spend As Much As $8 Billion — With Any Layoffs Guaranteeing An Industry-Wide Panic
Compute Costs Are Likely Astronomical, Burning At Least $15 Billion — If Not $20 Billion — In 2025 Alone
OpenAI Is Bleeding Out, And Could Run Out Of Money By End Of Year
Chaos Bet: Microsoft Kills OpenAI By Blocking Its Non-Profit Conversion
Even If Microsoft Agrees, OpenAI Does Not Have Enough Time To Convert To A For-Profit By The End Of The Year
Chaos Pick: OpenAI Does Not Convert, And Does Not Receive More Money From SoftBank
Alternate Chaos Pick: OpenAI Does Convert, But SoftBank Can't Get The Money
How Does OpenAI (or Anthropic) IPO?
I Believe Both OpenAI and Anthropic May Be Overstating Revenues And User Numbers, Using The Media To Launder Their Reputations
What Happens Next?
So Why Did You Say 2027?
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RE: (meta?)speculation about the quantum bubble. So the preceding two tech bubbles tried to worm their way into the arts: NFTs, and slop. How do we think the quantum hucksters are gonna try co-opt craativity?
No idea, but the big problem area to look out for imho is when it gets matched with quantum woo again. And if people manage to link that to computers.
Quantum as a concept doesn't really have any way to co-opt creativity that I can see - its a rather "science-y" concept in the public eye, far away from anything associated with the arts.
Probably won't stop the hucksters, though - they'll happily make shit up if it means butting in on artists' turf.
Automobile advertising
At the risk of doing some "founder mode" idiot's homework for them, impermanence is inherent to a lot of artforms, and I can see some insane and vague pitches to use quantum to "capture the magic moment". Or maybe they tie it back into NFTs with quantum technology that comes up with every variant of the bored chimpanzee at once.
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This hits differently over the recent news that ChatGPT encouraged and aided a teen suicide.
transcript
Kelsey Piper xhitted:
Never thought I'd become a 'take you relationship problems to ChatGPT' person but when the 8yo and I have an argument it actually works really well to mutually agree on an account of events for Claude and the ask for its opinion
I think she considers the AIs far more knowledgeable than me about reasonable human behavior so if I say something that's no reason to think it's true but if Claude says it then it at least merits serious consideration
"When the 8-year-old and I have an argument, it actually works really well to mutually agree on an account of events... and then take cocaine together."
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In 12 years we'll get a book "My Mom Outsourced Raising Me to AI and it Broke Me"
When an 8 year old thinks an AI is "far more knowledgeable than me about reasonable human behavior" that could lead a person to self-reflection. Could.
@nightsky @Architeuthis Computer programs are generally written to be basically polite for customer service purposes.
A generative text program that opened chats with "Ugh, what do you want THIS time, loser?" would likely find itself ....corrected.... by the parent company on short order.
That is his concern and not the billionaires behind it messing with the systems so much you cant prompt override it? Please tell me this guy doesnt work in AI alignment.
Yes dude, that's the main thing you should be concerned about of course. AI tools couldn't possibly be bad in and of themselves, it has to be human tampering. You've always been very clear about that part.
it has to be human tampering.
and of course we all have root on the prompt, where - at will - we can just instantly impose all manner of will on the corporate vendor chatbot. y'know, the chatbot operating in a service structured as much as possible to try to do what the corporate vendor wants to desperately maintain
(it continues to astound me that anyone takes yud seriously, at all, ever)
tfw your gifted child syndrome resentment of adults is powerful enough to make you forget about your life's work
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I feel dumber for having read that, and not in the intellectually humbled way.
I mean, tampering with the system prompt is definitely a kind of concern, given what we've seen happen with Grok's tenure as mechahitler or Replika users finding their girlfriend no longer wanted them. But "messing with system memory" is the kind of sci-fi nonsense that should stay in a cyberpunk novel.
He has capital L Lawfulness concerns. About the parent and the child being asymmetrically skilled in context engineering. Which apparently is the main reason kids shouldn't trust LLM output.
Him showing his ass with the memory comment is just a bonus.
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KP writing a paper for the journal “New Frontiers In Gaslighting Children”
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Look what they did to Notepad. Shut the fuck up. This is Notepad. You are not welcome here. Oh yeah "Let me use Copilot for Notepad". "I'm going to sign into my account for Notepad". What the fuck are you talking about. It's Notepad.
I should never have to open the settings in Notepad. Reason being: it's Notepad. God fuckin damn I hate the computer.
https://bsky.app/profile/iainnd.bsky.social/post/3lxdvmkua4227
I know everybody here has heard of it, but in the small chance it breaks containment: use notepad++ it is great.
I regret to inform you all that Elon Musk appears to be completely addicted to AI-generated anime porn..
sex weirdo (derogatory)
I'm sorry but this is zero percent surprising like ye of course he is, he was addicted to anime porn before AI generation probably
He isnt the only weird fascist attracted to digital porn. And not just the rank and file.
He're hoping that the more he spends time gooning the more he'll leave the rest of us alone. crosses fingers
Enjoy this malicious prompt trying to find crapto secrets after a compromise
Someone tried Adobe's new Generative Fill "feature" (just the latest development in Adobe's infatuation with AI) with the prompt "take this elf lady out of the scene", and the results were...interesting:
There's also an option to rate whatever the fill gets you, which I can absolutely see being used to sabotage the "feature".
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