Baldur Bjarnason gives his thoughts on the software job market, predicting a collapse regardless of how AI shakes out:
If you model the impact of working LLM coding tools (big increase in productivity, little downside) where the bottlenecks are largely outside of coding, increases in coding automation mostly just reduce the need for labour. I.e. 10x increase means you need 10x fewer coders, collapsing the job market
If you model the impact of working LLM coding tools with no bottlenecks, then the increase in productivity massively increases the supply of undifferentiated software and the prices you can charge for any software drops through the floor, collapsing the job market
If the models increase output but are flawed, as in they produce too many defects or have major quality issues, Akerlof's market for lemons kicks in, bad products drive out good, value of software in the market heads south, collapsing the job market
If the model impact is largely fictitious, meaning this is all a scam and the perceived benefit is just a clusterfuck of cognitive hazards, then the financial bubble pop will be devastating, tech as an industry will largely be destroyed, and trust in software will be zero, collapsing the job market
I can only think of a few major offsetting forces:
- If the EU invests in replacing US software, bolstering the EU job market.
- China might have substantial unfulfilled domestic demand for software, propping up their job market
- Companies might find that declining software quality harms their bottom-line, leading to a Y2K-style investment in fixing their software stacks
But those don't seem likely to do more than partially offset the decline. Kind of hoping I'm missing something
Chatbots are a cognitive hazard, part infinity: AI Delusions Are Leading to Domestic Abuse, Harassment, and Stalking