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i24NEWS: US official says that preparations under way for possible joint US-Israeli attack on Iran only 'if President Donald Trump gives the green light'

i24NEWS diplomatic affairs correspondent Amichai Stein reports a US official stated: “Preparations are underway for the possibility of joining an attack on Iran—if President Donald Trump gives the green light.”

The same official noted that such a decision is typically made by the US Secretary of Defense, but in this case, it was Trump who approved the preparations and the decision to deploy forces in West Asia. The official added that “US Central Command believes joining the attack is necessary, but some senior administration officials currently oppose the move.”

So, was Iran much more cautious today, and that's why we haven't seen Israel bombarded? Or is it something else?

This week, and tbh the last few years, have proven to me that the potential for nuclear conflict is all but certain now that militaries and governments are realising that decisive battles or overwhelming missile exchanges are infeasible.

In an age of a few hundred warheads per country rather than many thousands, there are simply too many targets to hit all at once, especially with improvements to aerial defenses and early warning systems that necessitate multiple launches to saturate a single target. If you're unlucky, your entire arsenal could be depleted and your enemy will strike back along with anyone who now realises your "deterrent" has been entirely spent.

Similarly, both Iran and Israel (beyond the initial strikes) are now in a stage of ammunition consumption aimed at maximising attrition for the other and minimising it for themselves. Iran could spaff out hundreds of missiles in an hour but would also run dry within a few days at best, before losing its entire offensive potential which would make it much safer to repair or build new airbases, or even occupy territories outside of the cover of interceptors.

A limited or tactical nuclear strike, however, keeps your nuclear arsenal intact for any response whilst limiting said response - If Israel were to nuke an Iranian nuclear facility, they could reliably get away with it whilst only compromising trade and tourism that would be hit by sanctions. For an Israeli prime minister convinced the alternative is capitulation to Iranian nuclearisation, that may be worth the cost.

Iran also limits the use of strategic and advanced weapons, not just because they will fare better against air defenses that are exhausted and damaged, but because those weapons have ranges and capabilities that could pose a risk to a new threat, such as the Diego Garcia air base, or anywhere the US may want to launch attacks from. Keeping open the Strait of Hormuz keeps neutral powers out of the fight, too, but offers a future deterrence that may be wasted now.

Without the promise of a phyrric exchange that would make any victorious army inherit an irradiated hellscape now gone, countries have minimised warheads and developed some that offer variable levels of power ("dial-a-yield"). This only further encourages their use once you realise that some of the lowest nuclear bomb yields are comparable to already-deployed conventional weapons!

Israel has already dropped the equivalent of 6 nuclear bombs on Gaza, more or less depending on what yield you choose. In theory, the level of suffering and devastation could have been less if they did so, as modern thermonuclear warheads create much less fallout than older designs. Whereas in Gaza right now there are toxic chemicals and metals in the soil, dust, and water to ensure that even if the war stopped today and aid was flooded in, we would see generations inflicted with cancer and genetic disease. That is the abhorrent level of suffering we have to contend with without nuclear weapons.

So, while we live in a post-MAD age where nukes were seen as unthinkable, we have now entered another age where their use does not guarantee a chain reaction, and where wars are fought on doctrines of attrition.

Perhaps a less doomer (though bleak) outlook is that nuclear weapons are no longer universally effective deterrents? NATO still felt like they could encroach on Russia (and even directly support a war with it), India and Pakistan still felt comfortable with days of skirmishing and ballistic exchanges, and Iran struck Israel twice before now despite not having any deterrent beyond conventional missiles. Nukes arent obsolete, but if they do not deter enemies and do not immediately defeat them, then proliferating them may not be as cost effective as once considered.

There's a lot of fake news going on this night, there's even an incident from a country that isn't involved in the conflict, I don't know if it's related, so everyone double check your sources and be wary of what you share.

History rhymes or whatever

On 12 May 2019, four commercial ships were damaged off Fujairah's coast in the Gulf of Oman. The ships included two Saudi Arabian registered oil tankers, a Norwegian registered oil tanker, and an Emirati registered bunkering ship. The ships were anchored on the United Arab Emirates territorial waters for bunkering in Port of Fujairah. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the United Arab Emirates reported that the ships had been subject to a "sabotage attack". The United Arab Emirates launched a joint investigation probe with United States and France. The initial investigation assessment determined that 5-to-10-foot (1.5 to 3.0 m) holes near or below all the ships' waterlines were probably caused by explosive charges.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_2019_Gulf_of_Oman_incident

Lockheed Martin stock dropping as rumours of several downed f-35's spread

Incredible things happening in Italy

Sat image of the Attack . 2 holes in the mountain have appeared , I guess fodor is fine.

So assuming this doesn’t immediately spiral into a regional war…and I’m a complete idiot, but I wonder if things stand an approximate chance of the following:

• Some more back and forth. Iran continues to lob a few missiles every day, with some immediate focus on the currently abandoned US bases. Some get through, most don’t. Israel retaliates. The IRGC grinds its teeth, shouts a lot, but mostly holds back.
• Over the next few years, phone calls get made. Reconstruction deals signed. More Belt & Road cash arrives. Russian and Chinese engineers start infrastructure projects. It’s no longer just the Bushehr reactor that has a Russian S-400 protecting it.
• The US keeps floating carriers around the Gulf, seeming more and more like museums against the backdrop of cheap drone warfare.
• Saudi and Turkey more seriously hedge both ways and BRICS expands. The dollar bleeds out slowly, but as long as the stock market stays green, nobody wants to admit it.
• At home, the usual screaming matches over culture war scraps while infrastructure collapses at an accelerating rate.
• Overseas, the west keeps flailing at the same targets, convincing itself it’s still running the show because nobody’s seriously punched back yet.
• Eventually, Israel or the US hits a site they didn’t realize had Russian contractors inside. Maybe they did realize, but figured no one would care. And then the global realisation that the world has slipped permanently beyond reach of the west. This will probably not be peaceful.

One of the ambulances targeted in the Israeli invasion of Najafabad, Isfahan

@PressTV

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@SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net How did this megathread fare on the records?

PARLIAMENTARIAN SIGHTING!!!!

Republicans are moving the bill through Congress using special rules that shield it from a filibuster, depriving Democrats of the ability to block it. But to qualify for that protection, the legislation must comply with a rigorous set of budgetary restrictions meant to ensure that it will not add to the deficit. And the Senate parliamentarian, an official appointed by the chamber’s leaders to enforce its rules and precedents, must evaluate such measures to ensure that every provision meets those requirements.

Elizabeth MacDonough, the parliamentarian, ruled that the SNAP measure, which would push some of the costs of nutrition assistance onto the states, did not. That sent Republicans back to the drawing board to find another strategy for covering tens of billions of dollars of the bill’s cost.

So I guess we'll see the Republicans fire and/or overrule her, like the Democrats could have done years ago. Exciting times.

Broke: trying a new beer for a nice meal/special occasion

Woke: opening up that beer right now bc you fear an unscheduled sunrise at any moment

This guy is connected, but hard to say how much of this is true;

Putin confirms Russia ready to mediate Middle East conflict — Kremlin TASS

MOSCOW, June 18. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed Russia's readiness to mediate a dialogue between Iran and Israel in a phone call with President of the United Arab Emirates Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the Kremlin said.

"Vladimir Putin confirmed Russia's readiness to provide mediation assistance in promoting dialogue between the parties to the conflict, informing about contacts with a number of foreign leaders in this regard," it said in a statement.

Ryabkov reported on Russia's contacts with the United States on the conflict in the Middle East. Interfax

Moscow. June 18. INTERFAX.RU - Moscow is in contact with Washington on the topic of the Iran-Israeli conflict, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergei Ryabkov told Interfax.

"Yes, we are in contact," Ryabkov said when asked whether Russia is in contact with the United States on the conflict in the Middle East.

Maybe there is still a slim chance of preventing a disaster from happening.

The Cradle: 'Cancer-like entity': North Korea slams Israeli war on Iran

The article quotes the DPRK statement, which I'm just going to reproduce in full below, instead of the partial quotes.

The illegal act of state-sponsored terrorism by Israel which launched a reckless large-scale military attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran at dawn of June 13 is sparking off strong denunciation and concern of the international community, raising the danger of a new all-out war in the Middle East region. The daily-escalating Israel's reckless military attack on civilians in wanton violation of international law and the basic principle of the UN Charter is a hideous act of aggression wantonly violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a sovereign state and an unpardonable crime against humanity.

The DPRK expresses serious concern over the Israel's military attack and resolutely denounces it.

The present grave situation witnessed by the world clearly proves that Israel, supported and patronized by the U.S. and the West, is a cancer-like entity for the peace in the Middle East and a chief culprit of destroying global peace and security. Israel has steadily expanded its territory through four Middle East wars and tens of military invasions in the past. In recent years alone, it has escalated military attacks on the Gaza Strip of Palestine, the West Bank of the Jordan River, Lebanon, Syria and other regional countries step by step, thus massacring tens of thousands of civilians and creating a serious humanitarian crisis.

The international community is strictly watching the U.S. and Western forces fanning up the flames of war, taking issue with the legitimate sovereign right and exercise of the right to self-defence of Iran, the victim, far from condemning Israel for getting frantic with the territorial expansion, pushing the situation in the Middle East to an uncontrollable catastrophic phase. The Zionists who brought a new war to the Middle East and the behind-the-scene forces who zealously patronize and support them will be held totally responsible for destroying international peace and security.

The Cradle continues:

Pyongyang and Tehran have enjoyed close ties for many years. Iran and the DPRK have for many years been suspected of engaging in close cooperation on missile development. In 2012, the two countries signed an agreement on scientific and technological cooperation. According to analysts, both have since mutually benefited from one another’s missile programs and collaborated in staving off sanctions targeting their proliferation of weapons, particularly the procurement of specific missile components.

Last year, a South Korean newspaper said that Pyongyang’s technology may have aided the first Operation True Promise, during which Iran launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles at Israel in response to Tel Aviv’s destruction of the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April 2024. The US and NATO have also warned of increased military cooperation between DPRK, Iran, and Russia – specifically in the wake of Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

Other allies of Tehran have weighed in on the current war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, on the phone on Thursday. Both condemned “Israeli actions which violated the UN Charter and other norms of international law,” a Kremlin aide told reporters. Putin said on 18 June that he has offered to mediate an end to the war. It is a “delicate situation” but a “solution can be found,” he told reporters. “I do not even want to discuss this possibility. I do not want to,” he said in response to a question on Trump’s threat about assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He also said that Iran has not asked Russia for military assistance. A strategic partnership agreement does not include such assistance, Putin affirmed.

“We see that today in Iran, with all the complexity of the internal political processes taking place there … that there is a consolidation of society around the country’s political leadership,” the Russian president added.

Neoliberal Clown Car News: Danish Foreign Minister Caught Trying To Bribe MP To Hush Up Underage Sex Scandal

Lars Løkke Rasmussen, the powerful leader of Denmark's neoliberal "Moderate Party" and head of the nation's Moderate Party-controlled ministry of Foreign Affairs, is currently embroiled in a yet another remarkable scandal. A clandestine recording, captures Rasmussen offering a substantial cash payment to his own party member, MP Mike Fonseca, to quietly vacate his parliamentary seat and hand it to a party-loyal substitute. In doing so, Fonseca would be replaced by a loyal party substitute, preserving the fragile majority of the right-wing regime of which the Moderate Party is part.

A final report by the Brazilian Federal Police concluded that Carlos Bolsonaro, one of Bolsonaro's sons and a fugitive in the United States, was the creator of the “parallel Abin”, a clandestine espionage scheme set up during his father's government. The councillor allegedly used the structure to access investigations and supply the so-called “hate cabinet”.

According to the Federal Police, Carlos ran the “parallel intelligence” and was the final recipient of sensitive data, used to attack opponents, protect the Bolsonaro family and sabotage democratic institutions. He was indicted for being part of a criminal organization. The Federal Police also indicted Congressman Alexandre Ramagem (Liberal Party), former director of Abin. In all, 36 people have been held responsible. Carlos reacted by saying that it was all a “coincidence” because of the 2026 elections. But the evidence points to something much more serious.

Brazil's Federal Police have also revealed that President Jair Bolsonaro also used ABIN to spy on Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. But, for some reason, the agents investigated the wrong person, someone called Alexandre de Moraes Soares, who is not a Supreme Court Justice or a Judge.

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In NYC Mayoral election news, a long awaited independent pollster (Marist) just dropped the most recent assessment of the race between Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani, and disgraced ex-governor and serial harasser Andrew Cuomo. The poll points to a final round of ranked choice voting victory for Cuomo, and personally I believe that the 55%-45% result is not only very promising for Mamdani, but a deeper look into the poll’s methodology and sample demographics suggests that Mamdani may actually be ahead of Cuomo.

The actual issues with methodology and those polled:

All things considered, I think this poll points to a much closer race than it lets on, especially with a 4% MOE that already puts a tie within statistical reasonability. This polling was conducted only a short time after Zohran’s AOC endorsement, and before Bernie’s endorsement. I don’t want to be overly optimistic, but I think this is Mamdani’s campaign to lose.

I’m going to guess B2s from Diego Garcia use MOP to hit Fordo and we argue the next 24 hours over whether it worked or not, and at the same time Israel goes ballistic on Tehran.

I think if we look at Yemen and how Israel and the US work together, we can see that America is good at SEAD and removing all the anti-air systems, and they are good at heavy strikes with bunker busters at specific locations. Israel generally does the counter value and massacring, it will be them leveling Tehran chunk by chunk with inexpensive stand-in strikes after America clears the path.

Iran will obviously want to punish in response, and they will try to do large launch volleys. Do they have other tricks up their sleeve? America will probably be ready to strike the launchers when they surface. Not sure how this will play out.

Keep in mind though, Tehran is huge. It’s like 8 times bigger than Gaza in population and bigger in size. Israel couldn’t completely level Gaza from the sidelines right next to their country with no anti-air to speak of. They had to send in diaper forces with bulldozers and explosives. Why will they be capable thousands of miles away in a city 10 times as big with anti-air? There are 17 million people here, and they don’t all have underground bunkers like the Israelis.