Trump seems to always exceed expectations, so I fear he will almost certainly win unless a health condition forces him out of the race.
However, I have consistently under estimated Harris, so maybe I'll be wrong yet again and she will be the one to overperform...
It's gonna be a shitshow.
Without question Trump is winning. It feels like it should defy logic, but it actually matches with the current mood in the nation, and the state of the 'culture war'.
The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Well that's disheartening. Can't believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
Betting markets don't really have any predictive value. It's all vibes.
Wikipedia lists Real Clear Politics as having become more conservative and right leaning in recent years. Their polls may not be as accurate.
That's not a poll. It's an aggregate / average of betting markets.
The 1% will benefit.
Before all ballots are counted, Trump declares himself a winner and starts sounding the alarm about illegitimate counts. Trump then contests battleground states and has enough alternate electors that the final score gets escalated to the Supreme Court, who grants Trump the win while they “figure it all out”. They declare widespread “issues” with the election and localized protests ensue. Trump declares martial law and tells the police to “be tough”. Several injuries and deaths set more riots and protests. Trump orders the national guard to help with crowd control. An overzealous soldier opens with live fire on the crowd, killing several due to stampedes and general chaos.
Trump blames chaos on Democrats and claims illegal immigrants were behind the violence, begins his mass deportation exercise. Numerous non immigrants are rounded up “as sympathizers” and taken to holding facilities in Texas and several other border states where they are held indefinitely without trial.
Trump creates a tip line to report “illegal aliens” and people start reporting their neighbours and anyone else they find “suspicious”. People are always keeping their eyes out and keeping their lives to themselves out of fear they may be reported.
Trump and his regime create a committee to oversee and overhaul elections “due to all that bad corruption” and suggests a moratorium on elections until “they figure it out”.
They don’t ever figure it out.
So basically "how to speedrun dictatorship"
My rational side wants to see Harris win, but the anarchist in me wants to see Trump win, just to see what would happen. Not living in the US, obviously.
Trump winning could be a disaster for the whole world since US is such a major player in basically everything, but my anarchist side does not listen.
They’ll both be disasters for the USA.
Trump will be a disaster because millions of Americans who are currently on the brink of poverty will sink into poverty under his policies, amplifying all kinds of social problems and civil unrest.
Harris will be a disaster because she will escalate unpopular military conflicts, overextending the military, further lessening the prestige of the US, and encouraging countries to de-dollarize.
The next four years are going to be rough. There’s no avoiding it.
What does Trump winning have to do with Anarchy?
Would U.S.A. foreign policy be drastically affected by who becomes the president?
As a non-American, I think it'd have more impact on the people of the U.S.A and maybe immediate neighbours like Mexico.
I don’t know, to quote someone I read here: “The world shits when the US farts”
US electing an authoritarian might encourage authoritarians all around the world (even more)
US electing an authoritarian might encourage authoritarians all around the world (even more)
That maybe a consequence but US foreign policy might improve or remain unchanged under Trump.
Haha, u kidding?
They will improve with authoritarians, where Trump can personally benefit from.
For everyone else it will worsen and set global policies back by at least one decade.
2016 2: electric boogaloo. Harris loses PA and MI due to campaigning on continued genocide, leaving her with a popular vote victory but electoral college loss.
That's what I'd bet on if I were a betting man.
My prediction is that every other country will watch with a mix of concern and popcorn
As a Brazilian, this too. Also, some PTSD from remembering recent Brazilian elections (sometimes USA and Brazil are so similar that they seem like brothers separated at birth, your Trump was our Bolsonaro, your Biden is our Lula, I wouldn't be surprised if your Harris is our Dilma without the "stockpiling of wind" thing).
As a non-American, this. And I honestly don't understand why so many people in our neck of the woods aren't more concerned about this. You guys are such a heavy hitter from a socio-economical standpoint, that anything which goes down in your country will inevitably affect everyone else.
Civil war, because Trump won’t accept the result and Musk will be fueling the hate.
The material conditions aren't ripe for a civil war just yet, nor for a revolution. Things have not gotten dire for the US Empire abroad just yet.
Jill Stein comes from behind to take the surprise win. Dems and Republicans both claim it's stolen.
Right now I think Harris is more likely to win than Trump, but it would also not be an enormous surprise if Trump wins.
It's going to be a shit show.
We won't have a clear winner. No matter which candidate "wins", there will be widespread allegations of voter fraud. There will be protests. Biden will declare a national emergency. What happens after that? I don't know. But I am prepared for major social unrest.
A large number of people from both major parties are absolutely unwilling to accept a win by the opposing candidate. I've never seen the country so divided.
I hope you are right about the left not accepting a Trump win. I don’t even know why he’s a legitimate candidate with the whole insurrection thing. Openly gaming the election? Felonies? I don’t think the US can survive four more years of this guy, so I think the time for passively accepting his shenanigans is over.
2016 election night again. Kamala has more votes, loses electoral college
Everyone worth less than 8 figures will lose.
Little else will change. Regardless of figurehead.
I'm almost positive Trump wins with how close all the swing states are now and how he's improving in polling (what the actual fuck people?!) the closer we get to the election.
I'm also almost positive we will not know for sure on election night as I absolutely expect R controlled states to drag their feet and declare "irregularities" that they need to investigate if they don't like the way things are going.
I hope it will not be Florida of 2000 election all over again, but in a massive scale.
It's insane, Gore won by several thousand votes, if not tens of thousands.
Yeah but Gores brother wasn't governor of Florida! Who evers brother is governor wins, thems the rules.
Such a weird rule, but can't disagree with the supreme court.
I'm in a swing state with an abortion measure on the ballot, and while all the polls claim it's close, I'm not really sure they are properly accounting for the number of voters that have been activated by the possibility of enshrining pro-choice into the state constitution.
These polling strategies are complex and a lot of thought goes into them, but they rarely can account for uncommon circumstances that increase voter turnout in local or state elections and how that will effect the national election.
While this is entirely personal reexperience bias, I also wonder how effective these polls are at reaching a representative survey group. I know at least on my phone basically all survey calls and texts go to spam and I wonder if older, more conservative voters are getting overrepresented due to their likelihood of not having those kinds of spam filters in place.
Polsters do not call random people. They will call as many people under 30 as they have to to get a representative sample. They have quotas for different parties, age groups, races, etc. And purposefully target the ones they want and verify with the person that demographic info is right while doing the questions. Atleast good scientific polls will do this. Not all polls are created equal.
Whoever wins .... the country will fight about the result for the next four years and completely obscure any reasonable debate or conversation about anything of importance like inflation, wealth inequality, war, the military industrial complex or creeping fascism.
If America doesn't get its act together during this election ... it's just taking another step towards becoming a failed state and will break apart within the next decade or two. But it won't be a war or anything too dramatic ... it will just look and sound like a never ending slapfest between shouting children and crying babies who threaten each other but never actually do anything except leave the room with all their toys.
Harris wins comfortably. Lots of lawsuits. Even more violence.
Impossible to say but Harris is winning the popular vote for sure. I think however it goes there's going to be some chaos and violence, I wouldn't be surprised if there's blatant attempts by MAGA cultists to sabotage what they can and drag out the vote counting and electoral processes. Its probably going to be a shitshow, and possibly a horrorshow. I don't expect it to be called on election night unless its a significant and obvious win, which currently seems very unlikely. I would be less surprised if there was a terrorist attack on election night than a clear and obvious conclusion to the election.
Congress I think Dems are likely to outperform, the RNC is no longer what it was and doesn't have the ground game they used to. All their money and resources have been sucked into the black hole of Trumps campaign.
Thin narrow margin for Harris, several swing states are a new Florida of leaning and ballot counting taking forever. Then right wingers get upset, try to sue as they also then shoot local people for not sieg heiling Trump.
Harris enters office in Jan, makes some statements of how this is horrid, says she'll do something to help it, but won't solve the issues that make people consider being fascists who shoot mosques.
From there we'll see the first 100 days of her term, and if the Senate and House are in favor, we might get some good bills in for a short term solutions to the long term diseases of American necrotic brain damage of conservatism.
For most people, nothing changes. Anti-trans bills are still in place, putting abortion back will be near impossible, and police will still shoot first ask questions second. Maybe some debts are cleared, weed is maybe legalized finally, but the county is the same as it was under Biden.
Global thermonuclear war.
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