My summary of the situation as I understand it is in spoiler tags below.
summary
After many long weeks, Iran and the US have agreed that they're going to begin negotiations on certain topics in a process lasting at least 60 days. Due to America's perfidy during previous negotiations, trust has broken down so far that Iran demanded $12 billion of their frozen funds and several other promises, such as the end to the naval blockade, to even return to the table, which seems perfectly reasonable to me. Iran also demanded that negotiations take place in two stages, and that nuclear issues will only be discussed in the second stage, which will be several weeks from now if everything goes as planned.
The terms of the MoU have themselves been a big source of confusion and suspicion, for me and many other pro-Iranian spectators. Getting the wording exactly correct is important, because the US really is like the devil - leave room for any possible interpretation in the contract that favors them more, and they'll insist that this was the only interpretation up for discussion. Additionally, the US might be historically bad at winning wars, but they're very, very good at winning peaces: they set up the post-WW2 order to best suit them by playing the European powers off each other; the DPRK might have survived the Korean War politically intact but existed for nearly the next hundred years as a sanctioned pariah; Vietnam was soon forced to economically engage with the country that had dropped triple of all the bomb tonnage of WW2 on them; and so on. It is no exaggeration when I say that the negotiation phase will be the most dangerous part of this war and it could lead to the most death and destruction without a single missile impacting Iran.
However, there's one little genocidal colony in the region that could stop this whole process from even beginning, as the US appears to have promised Iran that the Zionists will stop the war against Lebanon (and perhaps Gaza too? I'm a little unclear) and even withdraw entirely from southern Lebanon, including all bases set up since this broader conflict began. Apparently, the US promised this in return for Iran not striking the Zionists in return for their most recent strike on Beirut on June 14th. Now, the issue with this whole situation is that the US greenlit the Zionist strike on Beirut, and they knew that Iran would respond to it because they did in response to an earlier strike. If the US made such major concessions to Iran in return for this response strike not occurring, then why authorize the Beirut strike at all? Why make their position worse? Right now, I can think of two reasons. First is that they attempted to create one final embarrassment for Iran, under the assumption that Iran was so desperate for a deal that they wouldn't risk responding. Second is that this is all one big ruse or misdirection; the US does not intend to follow through with the MoU and subsequent negotiations anyway, and so the terms they're "agreeing" to don't really matter.
With the MoU signing apparently set for June 19th, we'll know for sure soon.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING!!! Bloomberg has published the text of the Memorandum of Understanding:
Tehran, Washington, and their allies announce immediate and final end to war on ALL FRONTS.
Tehran, Washington, and their allies pledge not to launch any hostile action and to refrain from threats.
Tehran and Washington pledge to reach an agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable.
The United States LIFTS the naval BLOCKADE on Iran immediately upon signing the MOU.
The United States pledges to WITHDRAW ITS FORCES from the regoin within 30 days from the date of the final agreement.
Iran works to resume ship movement within 30 days, taking into account its need to remove obstacles.
Washington pledges to cooperate with its regional partners in rehabilitating and economically developing Iran. Washington commits to ENDING SANCTIONS on Iran according to a timeline agreed upon as part of the agreement.
Iran reiterates that it will NEVER PRODUCE NUCLEAR WEAPONS. Tehran and Washington agreed to discuss the fate of enriched materials and nuclear issues in a final agreement.
Tehran and Washington agree to maintain the status quo until a final agreement is reached. Iran maintains its current nuclear program without Washington imposing sanctions or strengthening its forces.
Washington pledges to EXEMPT IRANIAN OIL and related banking services from sanctions.
Washington pledges to RELEASE FROZEN IRANIAN FUNDS and assets. After receiving guarantees for the implementation of a number of agreement provisions, the two countries begin final agreement negotiations.
The final agreement between Washington and Tehran is adopted by a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.
Time magazine's person of the year will be the shahed drone.
The Kheibar/Khorramshahr-4 is much more majestic. Love that yellow boi.
I can't believe this is real, lol. Iran kicked the US in the teeth so hard and is going to get everything it wanted. Incredible.
This feels historic. The beginning of the end of USA empire. We had a good run but it wasn't gonna last forever.
Suez hours
Am I missing something or is this a complete surrender by the US? What did iran even concede, just not completely blocking the strait for the time being?
Depending on how further negotiations towards the enriched nuclear materials go, they may get nuclear material shipped out. However, if that is the case it is an admission by the U.S. that they cannot take it by force, (despite the fact they more than likely tried), and an acknowledgement of the fact that Iran does not need a nuclear weapon to maintain it's strategic position in the Strait.
I'm still just a bit worried since this isn't a final agreement, but Iran certainly is getting a lot out of this. I have a feeling Israel is going to do just about everything to ensure this doesn't happen though.
i guess produce doesn't mean they can't get some from somebody else. look at me enriching copium.
Iran already had a fatwa against developing nuclear weapons. They're signatories of the Non Proliferation Treaty. They signed the JCPOA. They don't want nuclear weapons and never have, and they have good reasons for not wanting them.
And frankly, they clearly don't need them.
at what cost? there's little accounting for israel but the US almost certainly wouldn't have done all this to a nuclear state.
Iran's ICBMs can't reach the continental US like the DPRK's ICBMs, so it won't really affect much. Who is Iran going to nuke? Turkey? India? Germany? Iran and the Zionist entity trading nukes doesn't really harm the US that much since the US can live with a completely economically and environmentally devastated Western Asia.
If the US nukes Pyongyang, the DPRK can nuke DC or NYC or LA in retaliation. If the US nukes Tehran, Iran can go nuke Diego Garcia I guess.
yeah and the guy who made the fatwa probably wouldn't have been blown up if they had the bomb.
If they made a nuke, the entire region would be forced to build nukes as well and the NPT might collapse, leaving us with a much more dangerous world.
But Pissreal already has a nuclear program. Why hasn't that driven the region to build nukes already?
Israel and the US had strategic domination over the region for a generation. Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt, all had their nuclear programs (both domestic and military) bombed or shut down through intense miilitary-political pressure, and Iran could've been next.
Dialectically speaking the conditions for nuclear proliferation have changed dramatically from the time that Israel (allegedly) nuclearized.
Ya, I still think they need the bomb. They wouldn't have suffered all the tragedies they already did if they have the bomb. But I get the feeling that the nuclear issue and the Strait opening up again were the only non-negotiable Trump and the US had, to preserve some sense of victory they can return to the US people with.
I read this and had a little chuckle to myself that Israel thought they could demand Iran give up their ballistic missile program.
the epstein files they are gonna start releasing are about to go crazy.
Why is this written like it's for children
Probably a summary made for Trump rather than the actual agreement. Otoh Iran allegedly did say they've been relying more on psychologists to better deal with Trump as if he were a mental patient.
No nukes for Iran seems like a pretty big deal. Damn.
Not really, considering they're part of the NPT and were never pursuing nukes.
DPRK was also barred from pursuing nukes until they pursued them
Reads to me like there's a possibility that they end up keeping the pre-war status quo of having somewhat enriched uranium as a bargaining chip
Iran demonstrated they have an economic nuke, at this point nuclear weapons are redundant.
Complete Iranian victory.
Trump confirmed sucker and loser