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Image is of a harbor in Tasiilak, Greenland.


NATO infighting? You love to see it, folks.

The latest incident of America's satrapies becoming increasingly unhappy about their mandated kowtowing involves, of all places, Greenland. As I'm sure most people here are aware, Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark with a degree of geopolitical and economic importance - the former due to its proximity to Russia, and the latter due to the proven and potential reserves of minerals that could be mined there. It's also been an odd fascination of Trump during his reign, now culminating in outright demands.

Trump has called for negotiations with Denmark to purchase Greenland, justifying this by stating that it would be safer from Russia and China under America's protection. Apparently, Norway's decision to not give him the Nobel Peace Prize further inflamed him (not that the Norweigan government decides who receives the prizes). He has also said that countries that do not allow him to make the decision - which not only includes Denmark, but also other European countries - will suffer increased tariffs by June, and that he has not ruled out a military solution.

This threat has led to much internal bickering inside the West, with European leaders stating they will not give in to Trump's demands, and even sending small numbers of troops to Greenland. The most bizarre part of this whole affair is that the US already basically has total military access and control over Greenland anyway, and has since the 1950s, when they signed an agreement with Denmark. There are already several US military facilities on Greenland, and B-52 bombers have famously flown in the vicinity of the island (and crashed into it with nuclear bombs in tow, in fact). Therefore, this whole event - in line with his all-performance, little-results presidency so far - seems to be largely about the theatrics of forcing the Europeans to continue to submit to his whims. I would not be surprised if they ultimately do sign a very imbalanced deal, though - the current European leadership is bound too tightly to the US to put up even half-hearted resistance.

This is all simultaneously occurring alongside the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China in which longstanding sore spots in their bilateral relationship are being addressed, with China reducing tariffs on Canadian canola oilseeds, and Canada reducing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, as well as currency swaps between their central banks, among many other things. It seems no accident that Canada's reconsideration of their relationship with China is occurring as Trump has made remarks about turning Canada into the next US state, as well as the demand for the renegotiation of the USMCA.


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Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 33 points 1 day ago (8 children)

https://kalikoba.substack.com/p/china-waiting-and-losing

tfw in emerging multipolar world second pole doesn't want to be a pole, and we get back into monopolar empire

[–] yunqihao@hexbear.net 10 points 16 hours ago (1 children)

My gut reaction to this nonsense article can be quite succinctly summarized in one quote:

What you just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it.

However the marxist in me would die a little if I didn't explain why i feel this way. This article fundamentally misunderstands China because it approaches global politics from an idealist and Eurocentric framework rather than a materialist one. It treats power as attitude, assertiveness, and spectacle instead of grounding analysis in production, class relations, historical conditions, and the balance of material forces. This is not a minor flaw.

Power does not emerge from bold gestures or rhetorical dominance. It emerges from control over productive forces, industrial capacity, technological development, logistics, energy security, labor organization, and surplus distribution. China’s rise is not a matter of posture but of material transformation. It became the world’s largest industrial producer, built comprehensive infrastructure, lifted hundreds of millions from poverty, and retained state control over finance and strategic sectors. These are the foundations of power. Any analysis that ignores them is not materialist but psychological speculation.

The article also makes a serious theoretical error by equating global leadership with imperial behavior. It assumes that to matter geopolitically China must behave like the United States. Military intervention, regime shaping, and coercive alliances are treated as the natural expression of power. This assumption is the normalization of imperialism itself.

Lenin defined imperialism as monopoly capitalism, finance capital dominance, capital export for profit extraction, and political coercion to enforce those flows. The article never examines capital ownership, surplus extraction, or financial dependency structures. Instead it defines hegemony almost entirely in military terms. By that logic any state that refuses imperialist violence is framed as weak. That is simply imperial ideology stripped of its moral language.

China’s foreign policy cannot be understood without its historical origins. Modern China was born from a century of humiliation marked by colonial occupation, forced trade, famine, invasion, and civil war. The Communist Party emerged from anti imperialist struggle, peasant revolution, and resistance against both Western powers and Japanese fascism. Sovereignty is not an abstract principle in Chinese politics. It is the foundation of survival.

This history directly shaped China’s modern policies such as the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. Non interference, respect for sovereignty, and opposition to regime change were not invented as public relations tools. They emerged from lived experience of what imperial intervention actually does to societies. To dismiss these principles as naive is to erase the very conditions that produced them.

The article also ignores the central contradiction of the modern world. The primary global divide is not between competing great powers but between the imperial core and the oppressed nations. China’s foreign policy is not aimed at replacing the United States as global ruler. It is aimed at weakening monopoly control that allows imperialism to function at all.

This is why China focuses on infrastructure, trade diversification, development finance, and industrial cooperation rather than military domination. Projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative are not instruments of territorial control. They are responses to a world in which Western capital refuses long term infrastructure investment unless it produces immediate profit and political submission. Global South states engage China not because China forces them to, but because IMF austerity and Western conditionality devastated their economies.

The article treats the Third World as passive terrain where great powers compete. This is colonial thinking. The Global South is not a chessboard. It consists of nations actively seeking paths out of dependency. China does not create this demand. Imperialism does.

Another major flaw is the complete absence of class analysis. China is discussed as a generic state actor identical in nature to capitalist powers. This erases the distinction between bourgeois states ruled by finance capital and a socialist state managing contradictions within a capitalist world system. China operates with state owned banks, long term planning, capital controls, and political authority over private capital. These are not cosmetic differences. They shape foreign policy, investment logic, and strategic behavior.

The article also misrepresents strategic patience as passivity. Dialectical materialism teaches that quantitative accumulation precedes qualitative transformation. China prioritizes technological independence, domestic market expansion, energy security, food security, and military deterrence because premature confrontation under conditions of encirclement would be idealism, not strength. Avoiding war while consolidating productive forces, it's not weakness it's 孙子兵法 level strategy.

Multipolarity is also badly misunderstood. A multipolar world does not require China to dominate others. It requires the breaking of monopoly power. When multiple centers of production, finance, and diplomacy exist, imperial coercion weakens automatically. No single hegemon is required for that process to advance.

At its core, the article seems unable to imagine a world beyond empire. It criticizes the United States yet measures success using imperial standards. What it ultimately desires is not the end of domination but a more competent empire to replace the current one. That is why anti imperial restraint appears as failure and aggression appears as leadership.

From a Chinese, Third World and Marxist Leninist perspective, the goal is not a new hegemon. The goal is the erosion of the imperial system itself. China’s approach is contradictory and imperfect, but it has materially expanded the space for national development, weakened Western financial monopoly, and reduced the ability of imperial powers to dictate global outcomes.

The tragedy of the article is not simply that it is wrong about China. It is that it mistakes imperial behavior for historical necessity and cannot conceive of power existing outside domination.

If you are serious about understanding the current world order, you must analyze material conditions, historical struggle, class relations, and the lived experience of the oppressed nations. Without that, analysis becomes commentary. And commentary, no matter how confident, is not theory.

[–] seaposting@hexbear.net 3 points 10 hours ago (1 children)

Thank you for this. It’s something I have tried explaining more concretely in a post I wrote last week.

Your post reminds me of this Substack article written by a Pakistani Marxist-Leninist:

The Emancipation and Sovereignty of the Global South Must Be the Work of the Global South Itself - Bisharat Abbasi

The recurring lament—why did China and Russia not come to rescue Venezuela, why did they not intervene decisively, why did they not confront U.S. imperialism on behalf of a besieged nation—reveals less about China, Russia, or Venezuela than it does about a deep and persistent ideological confusion within large segments of the Global South itself. This confusion is rooted in a residual messianism inherited from colonial modernity: the belief that salvation must come from outside, that history advances through benevolent external guardians, that sovereignty can be subcontracted to friendly great powers. Against this ideological residue, a Marxist–Leninist position—grounded in historical materialism rather than moral sentiment—must insist on a harder, but infinitely more emancipatory truth: the sovereignty of the Global South cannot be gifted, guaranteed, or defended by others; it can only be produced, defended, and consolidated by the Global South itself, through its own class power, its own state form, and its own material capacity for deterrence. Anything else is a return, in new ideological garb, to the old colonial relation of dependence.

When Domenico Losurdo spoke of “proletarian nations,” he was not indulging in poetic metaphor; he was naming a concrete historical reality produced by imperialism itself. Just as capitalism divides societies into antagonistic classes, imperialism divides the world into dominant and dominated nations, into imperialist cores and exploited peripheries. The Global South, in this sense, occupies the position of the proletariat at the world scale: dispossessed of surplus, structurally subordinated, and subjected to permanent coercion—economic, political, and military. To expect that emancipation for these proletarian nations will arrive through the voluntary sacrifice of other states, however friendly, is to misunderstand the nature of the international system under imperialism. States do not act as moral abstractions; they act as historically situated concentrations of class forces, constrained by their own survival, contradictions, and strategic limits.

This is precisely why the question “Why didn’t China and Russia come to save Venezuela?” is itself wrongly posed. China and Russia, whatever their contradictions and internal trajectories, are sovereign states operating within a world order still dominated by imperialist violence. They can provide diplomatic cover, economic cooperation, limited military-technical assistance, and strategic balancing—but they cannot, and will not, risk a direct nuclear confrontation with United States in order to substitute for the internal class power that alone can secure Venezuelan sovereignty. To demand such a sacrifice is not internationalism; it is political infantilism masquerading as radicalism. Genuine internationalism strengthens the capacity of oppressed nations to stand on their own feet; it does not turn them into permanent wards of external protectors.

It continues further but it more or less aligns with what you have just said.

[–] yunqihao@hexbear.net 3 points 10 hours ago

I obviously largely agree with this assessment. It correctly identifies that the expectation of rescue by external powers reflects a lingering ideological inheritance from colonial modernity, rather than a materialist understanding of how emancipation actually occurs. The insistence that sovereignty must be produced internally through class power, state capacity, and concrete struggle is fully consistent with the Marxist Leninist tradition.

Everyone who has properly applied the dialectical materialist method should reach the same position. This is because socialism and Marxism are not belief systems or moral positions but a science. They apply the scientific method of dialectical materialism to the study of history, social development, and class relations. By examining material conditions, contradictions, and historical motion, Marxism allows us to understand how the past shapes the present and how those conditions are likely to shape future developments. As has been emphasized in different formulations by countless marxist scholars, Marxism is a science, and those who apply it correctly to concrete reality will arrive at the same conclusions.

When this method is applied to the contemporary world system, it becomes clear why the question of China or Russia acting as global saviors is wrongly posed. States are not abstract moral agents but historically situated concentrations of class forces operating under specific constraints, including imperial encirclement and the threat of escalation. Genuine internationalism does not mean substituting for another nation’s struggle. It means expanding the material space for oppressed peoples to develop their own productive forces, strengthen their sovereignty, and consolidate their own class power. Anything else risks reproducing dependency under a different flag rather than advancing the real project of anti imperialist emancipation.

[–] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 33 points 1 day ago

That was incredibly stupid and i am dumber for having read that. Only someone who is pathologically Westoid-brained could think that China should seek to become USA 2.0. The whole point of the model that China is selling for the world is that it is non-interventionist and non-hegemonic. You don't fight fire with fire. You fight it with water. Someone needs to spend more time understanding how the Chinese actually think and less time fantasizing about global Chinese hegemony.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 49 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

I think the author is trying to project China into becoming a new USSR, which China is not and will not. To be fair, I also pinned my hopes on China stepping up when the Ukraine war started, but over the years, it’s clear that this is not going to be the case.

So, in this sense, China is not waiting nor is it losing. In fact, I think China’s been playing its cards very competently against Trump’s trade war aggressions. There is only disappointment if one thinks this will lead to a new global order that will benefit the Global South. The opposite is happening, with China dumping its surplus industrial goods on the other countries, especially the EU, forcing them into running worsening trade deficits to protect China’s own domestic export industries.

In other words, China is exporting unemployment in a world where there is a surplus of productive capacity while the global demand for consumption is dwindling.

Furthermore, China standing up against the US would mean their trillions and trillions of accumulated US dollars would be turned worthless. Despite frantic purchase of gold, it still only constitutes a tiny fraction of China’s vast foreign reserves. The ruling class and the bourgeois elites would not want to see their wealth evaporates, so even the most revolutionary leaders would still have to confront heavy obstacles when trying to touch the elites’ interests.

This may seem like a contradiction but it is by design - the US de-industrializes itself and runs a perpetual trade deficit, while you get all the benefits of industrialization and GDP, yet you will find yourself entrenched so deeply into the system we designed that getting out of the rut becomes increasingly difficult by the day.

The only way out, as I have always pointed out, is for China to abandon the neoliberal ideology, a system that it has greatly benefited from for at least 30 years. And to be clear, China isn’t the only one playing this game. Before that, South Korea and Taiwan were the winners who took advantage of the early GATT (now known as WTO) arrangements to benefit from running trade surplus, and before them, Japan in the 1960s (under the Bretton Woods era).

Everyone is playing this neoliberal game, hoping that they too, can one day be a winner like China, South Korea, Japan etc. This is why Trump’s global tariffs, while seem like nightmares for some, also presented (the illusion of) opportunities for others. Everyone is secretly hoping that Trump would break up an entrenched system where upward mobility has now become stifled for most low/middle income developing countries, that somehow, with the ongoing US-China trade war, they could exploit the opening to become the next rising exporter country. Meanwhile, China’s maneuvers are all about preventing exactly that from happening, so the US will continue to rely on China.

That’s the true logic behind Trump’s trade war. It keeps the Global South disorganized and in competition with one another, while the US reaps and extracts from their bickering. Behind this is the “promise” of a collapsing order and where one can climb that ladder under chaos, only to fall into the designs of the imperialists. Laugh at the European vassals all you want, but at least they have class solidarity and understand well enough some of them will have to sacrifice themselves to preserve the system for the bourgeoisie to keep the treats flowing, like worker drones sacrificing for the queen to protect the colony under distress.

TL;DR: The fall of the USSR and its consequences. There is no international solidarity anymore.

[–] woodenghost@hexbear.net 31 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

The only way out, as I have always pointed out, is for China to abandon the neoliberal ideology, a system that it has greatly benefited from for at least 30 years.

Okay, though do you see any signs of that happening? Everything going on in the material base that you (and that article) described seems to point to the opposite direction: the trade surplus, the economism, the dollar, the burgoise elites interests and so on. Which ideologies prevail is mostly determined by material facts and struggles.

This is already a big question and yet I have a bigger one (feel free to ignore, it's not your duty to educate me and my lack of knowledge is my own fault, but I do appreciate your sharing). When we speak about the US, we speak about many different factions: Democrats, Republicans, finance capital, domestic capital, military industrial complex, think tanks, super pacs, rural/urban working class, intelligence agencies, etc. The political stage of the US is bustling with a large cast of actors. And I'm sure the same is true for China. But on this website, we rarely seem to speak about class struggle in China, or which factions represent which class interests. I'd like to know that. And who is pushing against neoliberal politics and ideology in China and who is holding it up? Also, I've heard about the splits between urban, rural and migrant workers, but probably not enough. Anything else? What factions exist within capital? How do contradictions between export driven economy and emerging domestic market play out? Different streams in the party? What are their names? I'd like to learn more and I think discussions on hexbear could also benefit from more nuance when it comes to China. We always talk about China this and China that as if it were one monotonous block. It's embarrassing. Despite all the talk, it often remains thoroughly opaque in our discourse.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 37 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (5 children)

Thank you for raising these very important questions, because as a Marxist and socialist, these are the issues most close to heart for me rather than the amazing technological breakthroughs in China. I have many on the table, for example, class division, rural/urban divide, healthcare system, etc. that I simply haven’t found the time to write amidst a very busy work schedule.

As a starter, it is important to understand why the Chinese economy is in the state it is currently. Whenever you hear someone argues why China should/shouldn’t have billionaires with all the rhetoric without telling you anything about the history of its economic development, especially the watershed moment of the 1994 Tax Sharing Reform, then you know they don’t know what they’re talking about. My favorite one is “China keeps billionaires under their control” lol - if that’s the case, then why would you need billionaires in the first place?

The simple answer is that the decentralized nature of the economy forced the local governments to seek financial support from the rich business elites, who then formed cliques with the government officials and became billionaires in the process. It is a product of the system itself. Read my post here about the 1994 Tax Sharing Reform and its consequences. It explains a lot about why there are billionaires and why the property market booming is such a big deal in China’s recent history.

For class division, I recently came across a lecture from Prof. Wang Ou and while I was writing up the notes, I realized that someone else has already done a professional translation of the full lecture. I strongly recommend you read this article: Wang Ou: Migrant workers, after the honeymoon which is essentially the entire transcript of the lecture translated into English.

Prof. Wang’s research is mostly focused on women migrant workers and the challenges they face after getting married and having kids, but even taking such a glimpse into a slice of the migrant worker’s lives will tell you a lot about class division in China.

I wrote a bit about this in another comment the other day in response to someone else in a different topic, I am reproducing my comment here to add on to what is in the article above:

In China, your hukou (i.e. where you are born, or rather, the residence of your parents) determines your access to housing, education, healthcare, pension/insurance and public utilities in the urban areas. There are ~40% of people with rural hukou registration that are effectively barred from what urban citizens get to enjoy - not completely, but it’s extremely limited.

Currently, there are ~300 million migrant workers (农民工) in China (~40% of the 700+ million total labor force, and nearly the entire population of the US!) who work in the cities but their rural hukou registration limits their access to housing (and education for their kids - both are connected, see below).

Migrant workers are the true underclass that makes your cheap iPhones and build all those amazing infrastructure across China, yet because of their rural hukou registration, are not entitled to public utilities in the cities they work in, because technically they are not residents of the cities they work in. Your home is tied to the village/provincial town you came from. This allows the municipal governments to exploit their labor while providing minimal services in return. (Remember, there is no personal income tax in China (only 70 million people have to pay income tax), the most important tax revenue is value-added tax, so the more labor hours being squeezed out of the workers, the higher tax revenues the local governments receive).

Similarly, employers are not obligated to contribute to pension funds and insurances (五险一金) so migrant workers usually get screwed the worst because they have little to no safety net if they get sick or become unemployed.

It is class division based on where you’re born.

Now, on to housing, more than 60% of them live in rental units, ~20% live in company-provided hostels/dormitories (shared living spaces) and a proportion of them (~20%) did purchase houses (especially with marriage and kids) but mostly in the provincial towns. A lot of them were scammed into purchasing houses because the local governments, in an attempt to drive up land prices, tied education resources to housing, and effectively coercing these migrant working class families to purchase a house in the county in order to even have a chance of sending their kids to public schools due to the points-based system that prioritizes home ownership:

According to Prof. Wang Ou’s research (see my linked article above):

So, how much does it cost for a migrant worker to buy a home in the county? While staying in newly purchased apartments of migrant workers, I calculated the expenses carefully. In a county in southern Jiangxi, homes cost 6,000–7,000 RMB [$852-994] per square meter; in a county in western Guangxi, 4,000–5,000 RMB [$568-710]. A 100-square-meter shell apartment plus full fit-out costs at least 600,000–700,000 RMB [$85,215-99,418]. This is an enormous burden—often draining the savings of two generations and still requiring loans for ten or twenty years.

Education is very important in China (and East Asian culture) as it is essentially the path towards upward social mobility. Many parents who want their kids to even have a chance to get enrolled in public schools were coerced into purchasing a house, because of the point-based system. If they are not wealthy enough to own a house, their kids will not be eligible for public schools (simply not enough places for everyone) even though they are born and raised in the city where their parents have worked for years. In this case, they will have to resort to private schools, which are more expensive and draining on the parents’ expenses. That’s how the system favors the wealthy.

As a result, the parents will often seek the financial support from their parents (the kids’ grandparents) and use their life savings as downpayment for houses, work hard themselves while saving very little to pay the mortgages for 10-20 years, all in the hopes that their kids will have access to good schools.

So, the purchasing of one house is not just about one family, it’s about three generations of people. The plunging property prices in China is now taking its toll on the Chinese households across multiple generations. This is how you get low domestic consumption.

I wish I have more time to write about these in more detail because they are very important and interesting topics to discuss. I hope this is enough to serve as primers for you into navigating these topics.

[–] woodenghost@hexbear.net 6 points 20 hours ago

Thank you so much! <3 This is way more than I could have asked. I'll need some time, but I will read through all the links.

[–] ShitPosterior@hexbear.net 24 points 1 day ago

Thank you for always giving such great posts. I've read so many and appreciate every one of them.

[–] juniper@hexbear.net 22 points 1 day ago

That was excellent xiaohongshu, I am not the person you replied to but want to sincerely thank you for taking the time. Thank you for linking the translation of Wang Ou's migrant worker lecture as well.

I did not realize the extent to which housing has become this ball and chain for multiple generations of a family, and it helps to contextualize the difficulty in raising domestic consumption when people are essentially forced into debt peonage for the "gamble" of a good education in order to maximize outcomes for their children.

[–] I_Hate_AmeriKKKa@hexbear.net 19 points 1 day ago

so, that article you posted a couple of days ago mentioned that there is going to be a major overhaul of local governments in the next year, do you think that has potential for positive developments given what you've written here about local governments being a big factor in the exploitation of migrant workers?

[–] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 12 points 1 day ago

Thank you for this, I had never heard of China's migrant system. Is there a movement to abolish it?

[–] 3rdWorldCommieCat@hexbear.net 17 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Thank you for the write up comrade. With the sudden welcoming of the IMF into their own country, unless they have a bait and switch strategy of sorts, it's a disappointing embrace of neoliberalism. Idk why some people are still surprised China isn't acting like a new USSR, even if it would be nice to have a communist power like that around, when that's clearly not the strategy they have.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 22 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Just a minor correction, the recent development of IMF Shanghai Center isn’t sudden welcoming, and IMF has been in China for a long time, but the further integration of the Chinese monetary system into the IMF framework, with the IMF now recognizing China’s role as an economic powerhouse in the region and in the world.

China will continue to play a major role in the global economy in the years to come, but I don’t see them abandoning the IMF neoliberal framework anytime soon.

[–] 3rdWorldCommieCat@hexbear.net 15 points 1 day ago

Oh, noted. Shanghai leadership seems to be the most liberal part of the cpc iirc so not surprised it's there.

[–] somename@hexbear.net 36 points 1 day ago (2 children)

What annoys me isn’t that China doesn’t project military power everywhere, that they don’t have fleets roaming around Cuba. It’s that they don’t actually use their most potent weapon, their economic might, offensively.

It would be trivial for China to arm resistance groups, sanction Israel, and other similar things. Actions like that are the domain of economic superpowers, which China is. It doesn’t require them to fight foreign wars, or seek dominion over others. It’s just a gift to let others seek their own liberation. Yet they don’t do it.

[–] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 9 points 22 hours ago* (last edited 22 hours ago) (1 children)

It would be trivial and it would destroy everything that China worked so hard for decades to achieve:

Their principled non-interventionist reputation and absolute trustworthiness as an economic partner. China is not going to fall into that trap. The reason why more and more countries are turning away from the US and toward China, even those with governments ideologically predisposed to like the US and dislike China, is precisely because the US abuses its economic and financial power for geopolitical gain and China doesn't. China only retaliates when directly attacked.

Furthermore, if a government needs to be propped up by a foreign superpower to survive, it was always fragile and never had the overwhelming support of the people. See what happened in Eastern Europe when the Soviet Union abandoned them. Contrast that with the resilience that the revolutions in Cuba and DPRK have shown.

See what happened in Afghanistan the moment the US pulled out, or what is happening now with Rojava. The hegemonic, interventionist model of geopolitics is inherently brittle and ultimately self-defeating. It just ends up creating resentment toward the interfering outside force. Why would China choose to emulate the US model that is demonstrably failing? What China offers is development and respect for sovereignty, but it cannot liberate your country for you.

[–] GaryLeChat@lemmygrad.ml 5 points 13 hours ago

"An egg that cracks from the inside is life, an egg that cracks from the outside is food"

[–] CarmineCatboy2@hexbear.net 30 points 1 day ago

The article does make a good point I think when it talks about China not wanting to endanger business relations. China's economic might is that of an industrial power, an exporter. It is not made stronger by cutting off clients, the extent of China's economic might is picking and choosing who accesses their markets and dangling that as an incentive.

Think about the dollar system and how it's supposedly been weakened after a critical mass of sanctions victims from Venezuela to Iran to Russia to so many others. The reason why the US can be aggressive in this fashion is because their financial capitalism underwrites everything. They are the bedrock, the global south is the soil and China is the industry above it all. So China's economic power can be thrown around, but defensively and in a measured way.

[–] companero@hexbear.net 17 points 1 day ago (4 children)

In my opinion, it all boils down to a lack of power projection capabilities. And how could they be expected to protect ideologically-aligned partners across the world if they can't even reunify their own country? "Economism" is a strategy to protect their interests without the ability to intervene militarily.

China will need multiple nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and a massive strategic airlifting fleet to constitute a true opposing pole to the US.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 12 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

The main goal of the Chinese military so far is to do with fighting in the Pacific, contesting the island chains and performing area or access denial. Considering the military resources China had a decade or two ago, this made sense. But now China has advanced so fast so quickly, so they are a victim of their own success in that regard with regards to power projection. However there is going to be a lot of progress in the next 10 years for the Chinese military. By 2035, China is planning to:

  • Have multiple nuclear powered aircraft carriers with modern air wings consisting of stealth (J-35) and EW (J-15D) aircraft.
  • Incorporate boom refueling on the YY-20 aerial refueler (China is currently only using probe and drogue refueling )
  • Have strategic stealth bombers, think this is the H-20 project.
  • Build modern Y-20 strategic airlifters with the new WS-20 engine instead of using Soviet era engines and copies of them. (I saw one of these, but with the old engines, fly over once, quite impressive, like a Chinese C-17).

The first three are all areas where the US essentially has a monopoly currently, with really only Europe and other US allies (Australia, Israel) able to compete on the boom refueling point with small numbers of these boom equipped refuelers. The other two points the US has an outright monopoly. The last point, Russia has some airlift, but even that's not up there with the US, the IL-76 is quite long in the tooth now. The AN-124 is very good, but Russia have low numbers of them and maintenance is difficult without Ukrainian expertise (Antonov is Ukrainian).

[–] skeletorsass@hexbear.net 10 points 1 day ago

Production scale for advanced gallium nitride amplifier MMIC was very important as well. From decades behind now lead the world. Very difficult material science design and manufacture.

[–] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 13 points 1 day ago (3 children)

Absolutely. All that "peaceful coexistence" bullshit is just to cover that their military is not strong enough. That blog article doesn't even attempt to analyze the current PLA's military capabilities, let along compare the PLA's military capabilities to what the US has or what the SU had.

This is a persistent problem of leftist analysis. They pretty much do not analyze things from a military perspective, ceding the ground to "Anglo Jews invented globohomo and installed the Anglo Jew agent Lenin after overthrowing Saint Nicholas the last man standing against the globohomo menace" reactionaries and "that slightly large explosion was actually multiple tactical nukes going off at once in a successful attempt to prevent the enemy from setting off their own tactical nukes" cranks. The Russian SMO enjoyer crowd is full of these dipshits, but how is the left doing in comparison?

Radlib types are allergic to anything concerning hard power, preferring to squander Marxist analysis on literary critique of Marvel slop. Class reductionist types chant "no war but the class war" without having read a single text on how to effectively wage warfare. ML types only concern themselves with economic analysis, forgetting that there's more to hard power than the economy. I see reading lists from ML orgs and few of them incorporate texts on revolutionary warfare. The only part of the left that is at least semi-serious about military matters are various anarchists, largely through the dissemination and study of COIN manuals. Too bad for various reasons, anarchists are suckered in by NATO narratives, but credit where credit is due, at least they realize that military matters is something worth studying.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 6 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 16 hours ago) (1 children)

The crank stuff is really annoying. Like with regards to Venezuelan military capabilities for instance, all over social media you had these alt media sphere accounts acting like Venezuela's ancient S-125/SA-3 Goa air defence systems were going to shoot down F-35s in a repeat of the Serbian F-117 shoot down (with zero understanding of what the F-117 was, what the F-35 is today, and how the F-117 shoot down even happened). Acting like a single S-300VM/SA-23 system, which wasn't even deployed to the capital, was going to protect the entire country. Acting like Kh-31 anti ship missiles, missiles that the US Navy used the exact same model of to test their air defence systems, were going to deter the US. Acting as if Maduro talking about 6000 MANPADs was going to shoot down fighter jets. Saying that the Buk air defence systems would do well in Venezuela because they perform well in Ukraine and Russia. Saying that some "anti stealth radars" Venezuela got from China were going to locate the F-22s and F-35s.

And then when the US did capture Maduro, those same alt media sphere accounts said that Venezuela just surrendered in a deal, ignoring all the pictures of destroyed Buks (there were quite a lot), and videos of US helicopters shooting anything that moved, and the close to 100 casualties amongst Venezuelan and Cuban forces. They did the same with regards to the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, saying that the US never actually flew into Iranian airspace and dropped bunker buster bombs, they just launched cruise missiles for show to make holes on the surface.

I guess most of the left (outside of China) doesn't want to engage seriously with military matters because most experts are western aligned and ideologically opposed to leftism. But then again, look at what China is doing. They are very much learning from the doctrine of the USA, making stealth jets, advanced electronic warfare aircraft, etc. China even has their own F-35 analogue, the J-35, an aircraft type many on the left constantly make fun of, despite it being a very capable aircraft produced in large numbers. Is China stupid for making their own F-35s? Or are the alt media sphere and exaggerated RT articles wrong? You can decide for yourself, but I very much think that China is right here by building J-35s.

I also feel like a complete idiot for taking the alt media sphere seriously years ago.

[–] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 4 points 15 hours ago

And then when the US did capture Maduro, those same alt media sphere accounts said that Venezuela just surrendered in a deal, ignoring all the pictures of destroyed Buks (there were quite a lot), and videos of US helicopters shooting anything that moved, and the close to 100 casualties amongst Venezuelan and Cuban forces.

"Cranks like Escobar told me Venezuela would totally own the US, so the fact that the US was successful in capturing Maduro meant that he was betrayed from within because the guy who said Iran almost got nuked by Israel if it weren't for Russia couldn't possibly be wrong about things. I don't care about Venezuela anymore. Fuck Venezuela."

It creates a very obnoxious cycle where cranks hype these countries up well beyond what they're actually capable of and when those countries inevitably fail to live up to the crank's fantasy, people start dooming over the country falling part "like Syria" or "giving up" on that country. I've seen an article boasting about how the US is the third strongest military in the world. I wonder how many people will be disillusioned when the "third strongest military in the world" continues to rampage across the globe as if it were the strongest military in the world.

[–] 666@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 17 hours ago* (last edited 17 hours ago) (1 children)

Absolutely. All that “peaceful coexistence” bullshit is just to cover that their military is not strong enough.

What makes you think this?

ML types only concern themselves with economic analysis, forgetting that there’s more to hard power than the economy. I see reading lists from ML orgs and few of them incorporate texts on revolutionary warfare.

A lot of the best titles on revolutionary warfare were written by MLs and most MLs are not worried about engaging in revolutionary warfare before properly building a party, a disciplined cadre and a vanguard while addressing class contradictions in the area/country that they are working in instead of distributing COIN manuals on Instagram pages and calling PSL police (NATO Anarchists, as you said, not jabbing at you.). This is demonstrable in the fact that actually existing socialist nations fall (generally) under the M-L banner and had to fight constantly for their existence/survival and only survived through addressing class contradiction via their own socialist characteristics deployed through extensive theory and party discipline.

[–] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 3 points 15 hours ago

MLs have written great literature on guerilla warfare (I've even listed them), but I don't see them in their reading list for most ML orgs. ML reading lists largely consist of economic analysis (Capital, Wage, Labour and Profit, Critiques of the Gotha Programme, etc) or political analysis (State and Revolution, What is to be Done, Left Communism, etc).

Understanding warfare on a conceptual level must be done far sooner than the formal establishment of an ML paramilitary. Any ML org that even holds something as passive as a public march needs to start studying COIN manuals because while they may not consider themselves insurgents, the enemy 100% does. Riot police manuals, which borrow from and should be seen as a subgenre of COIN manuals, treat protestors as insurgents, albeit insurgents who are too stupid and cowardly to bear arms.

But reading a bunch of riot police manuals that dives deep into relative minutiae like the various riot police formations isn't helpful without a proper understanding of counterinsurgency on a basic conceptual level. And that basic conceptual understanding of counterinsurgency is not possible without a parallel understanding of insurgency (since insurgency and counterinsurgency are in a dialectical relationship). And to understand how insurgency works, well allow me to introduce to you a certain obscure Chinese philosopher named Mao Zedong.

[–] damnatum_seditiosus@hexbear.net 10 points 1 day ago (1 children)

And if I were the kind of person who wants to get a good theory reading about revolutionary warfare, where would I begin?

[–] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 13 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Insurgency side:

  • On Guerilla Warfare by Mao
  • Guerrilla Warfare by Che
  • Handbook of Revolutionary Warfare by Nkrumah
  • People’s War, People’s Army by Giap
  • Minimanual of the Urban Guerrilla by Carlos Marighella

Counterinsurgency side:

There's also classical text like On War by Clausewitz.

Thanks a lot for the reply!

[–] plinky@hexbear.net 16 points 1 day ago (1 children)

but why? local populations would happily fight for themselves if you are seen as benevolent helper rather than just trading partner, sure usa can topple them here and there, but that's not how it works, you have to have problems in country to be toppled by color revolution or whatever. the bulk of fighting was done by vietcong in vietnam war.

[–] CarmineCatboy2@hexbear.net 17 points 1 day ago (1 children)

the bulk of fighting was done by vietcong in vietnam war.

They wouldn't have been able to without material support from the Soviets and China. The Vietnam War saw a situation where the US army fought a population that could essentially recruit every young person reaching military age, ever year, almost with impunity. Laos was bombed, but China wasn't. And the Chinese also sent instructors to help the Vietnamese organize their forces after Soviet methods proved unsuited for the kind of war that was being fought.

[–] plinky@hexbear.net 14 points 1 day ago (1 children)

yes, but for example afghanistan (aside from soviet fighting incorrectly) was basically stinger missiles, those you can ship around willi-nilly, would it help against b52? no. would it stop shenanigans such as in caracas, if they were willing to fight that is? definitely.

[–] CarmineCatboy2@hexbear.net 11 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

There are big complicating factors here but first, let me ask, is the problem in Venezuela that stinger missiles can't stop a full scale invasion? I don't think so. China wouldn't supply a Venezuelan guerrilla. Moreover, are US boots on the ground even a thing anymore? People talk about the US being overconfident after Iraq but a lot of soldiers and ideologues understood that Iraq was a once in a lifetime thing. Since then the US have only used proxies and attacked from afar. Hence there being no Venezuelan invasion and no Venezuelan opportunity to wage guerrilla warfare. The US kidnapped the president and that was it.

So let's talk about Afghanistan. Like Vietnam, Afghanistan had the inklings of a pre-industrial pre state society. Don't fall for the Cemetery of Empires thing. It's a meme. For most of its history the region Afghanistan is in has been dominated by outside powers like the Timurids, the Mongols, the various Irans and the Mughals. The problem with powers like the British, the Soviets and ultimately the Americans is their inability or unwilligness to find a modus vivendi with everybody outside of Kabul.

Because that's where Afghanistan's uniqueness comes out. Vietnam back in the day was a self policed society, those are easy to mobilize and wage people's war with. Afghanistan is like that but much, much more so. The entire region is held together by quasi and ad hoc ethnic ties that group different mountain valleys together. Economic activity for this pasture or that farmland is often a matter of old, tribal, gentleman agreements. But why does this feed into the US defeat in Afghanistan? Because the US wasn't working with that culture and society.

When the US invaded Afghanistan the Taliban's government wasn't very popular. Strict religious nationalism is extremely disruptive of a society which is both deeply religious and filled to the brim with strange little rituals that are considered 'innovations' by puritans and simply 'lived experience' by religious scholars and normal people. The Americans came in, put that government down and then started a nation building experiment. Which failed. Why? Because the attempt to create an Afghan Nation-State out of Kabul meant centralizing power. Someone in Kabul gets to decide who owns every piece of land. Whoever used said land before under a system of tribal friendships and relationships isn't shit out of luck. They get to branded illegally armed as well so, behold, they join the Taliban.

The US learned this lesson once before in their colonization of the Phillipines. They once figured they could just kill everyone who opposes them, the islands would simmer down eventually. They didn't so, eventually, the Americans created a modus vivendi with local leaderships. The 2000s USA had forgotten this experience.

Now is the Afghan experience reproducible everywhere? No, I don't think so. The Iraqi, Syrian, Libyan and Lebanese experiences form a real counter-example and at the end of the day we are left with depositing our hopes on surrounded, asfixiated countries like Iran and Venezuela.

[–] plinky@hexbear.net 8 points 1 day ago (1 children)

The problem in venezuela is having professional military, but secondarily- economy suffering under sanctions can be given a lifeboat or taking advantage from, china (consistently) does the latter (oooh, your oil is sanctioned, you have to sell at discount to us or to no one), and with rmb you get, will happily trade with you, but not like we will finance, say, your solarification or happily take your workers to send money home ( yeah i know they have problem with unemployment, but that’s also result of neoliberal brainrot). They do it on the edges, like with solar energy in cuba and africa, but that’s peanuts to what they could muscle if they put their mind to it

[–] CarmineCatboy2@hexbear.net 9 points 1 day ago (1 children)

but that’s peanuts to what they could muscle if they put their mind to it

The disagreement here seems to be that China can use their muscle in the form of cargo ships. That's fine if you're talking about Indonesia or Brazil. But Venezuela is under a naval blockade and comes and goes. Unarmed ships can't do much against piracy.

[–] plinky@hexbear.net 7 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Now, obv, but that was the situation for 7 years, i mean, we can see same behavior both in iran and syria, where most obvious concerns can be acted on or be let to fester. Like, whether recent crash in iran was externally caused or not, what is exactly stopping china from giving them currency swap deal, now, today? They can easily deflate their currency under some capital control conditions inside iran, it’s easily done, if you have desire to. Syria is even more preposterous, they could have subsisted on one billion dollar per year plus development deals, instead they got got with 10 million and 10k soldiers

At some point, most naive calculus says it’s cheaper to support iran and get -2 carrier groups in your vicinity in case of war, instead of getting them all

[–] Hermes@hexbear.net 9 points 1 day ago

China will need multiple nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and a massive strategic airlifting fleet to constitute a true opposing pole to the US.

Good thing China doesn't have any shipbuilding or heavy industry to support this

[–] red_giant@hexbear.net 12 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Why does the article assume the new world order will copy the old?

The American empire isn’t winning right now so why would China seek to emulate American imperialism and American methods?

[–] plinky@hexbear.net 13 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

because, for example, china could have easily buyout with development programs syria/venezuela/iran (150 million people) for peanuts. now one of them will be training grounds for etim almost definitely, the venezuela is who knows what, mining colony of usa, iran we will see

in other words, to overextend empire, even if you don't want to replace it, you have to, in fact, extend it

[–] jack@hexbear.net 12 points 1 day ago (1 children)

To become hegemon

wrong right off the bat

[–] plinky@hexbear.net 11 points 1 day ago

it is true tho, you either have trade with china + concerns in un or trade with china + us military support, which one any country will choose?

[–] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 6 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 9 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I just responded lol. Don’t really agree with the author’s take.

Whoops, you responded before I refreshed the page. 😅