this post was submitted on 18 Sep 2025
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I agree with a lot of that but honestly, what is the Russian capability currently to open up a new front anywhere if we are not talking nuclear war?
Sure they're prepared to waste a lot. But can they waste that much without getting into so severe issues that even their propaganda won't push through? Oh right, I forget, propaganda is basically for foreign states and domestically you can just use threats of violence and arrests.
Also "carrying capacity" is a poor way to talk about bad infrastructure.
The world isn't full. It's built wrong.
People make fun of the Civilization games, but in them, you can win more than one way. War doesn't have to be fought with nukes (or even bombs - eg economically, culturally) and largely hasn't been, especially recently.
Russia is being propped up by China and India et al. Imo when the west is more weakened, China will make their moves for Taiwan and the South China Sea. But maybe not, or maybe in a way we don't expect (eg diplomatically) because China REALLY wants to be seen as like, the main guys who are super reasonable and modern etc. Recommend the PBS documentary Made in Ethiopia to see a little of China's foreign policy in action. They want clean hands, I think. But they want those territories too.
Russia uses extensive propaganda domestically.
I say carrying capacity because that's how they view it in light of climate change and all the other issues we face: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458
We are actually now past 7 of 9 planetary boundaries to support human life. Reducing the carrying capacity (aka total human population) of the earth won't help, we need everyone to work together to solve these issues. Imo a sun shield in space to deflect some UV would buy us time to sequester carbon and create sustainable living solutions. I think if the rich kill everyone, they will also die. I do not think they have the intellect or wisdom to solve this without the people of the world.
They have been preparing for decades, at least. You are free to believe what you want though.
They want the Fallout games to become reality. It's almost certain. Fuck all of that. Pushing the development of AI unsustainably in a way that other countries can mirror (e.g. China) is suicide for the country, besides them, and solidifies my belief.
It doesn't matter how long they've prepared. What's coming will destroy ecologies in huge ways, possibly collapsing all megafauna and even things like insects which have already experienced significant population collapses. People need vitamins and micronutrients to live, requires a varied diet.
We barely grow plants in space. Biosphere thing barely worked and needed outside intervention. We NEED earth. I say this as a person very educated in science- we NEED the planet intact.
The Titanic sub was a preview of the hubris of the wealthy against science. They are genuinely so narcissistic they think they can conquer extreme natural phenomena.
They particularly like AI because they believe it's the perfect slave (and we are not because we can dissent). So yeah they will kill the world for it. And for oil, and for gold, and for money, and manufacturing, because capitalism requires capital be made and sought even if ot isnt efficient and people die. Capital above all else.
I hope you are right.
I hope unpredictable events happen and everything turns out great
Recent history has been nearly unpredictable for a while now. Thanks for chatting even if strong emotions flew around. I am not your enemy and we may have more common ground than initially thought. Take care.