this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2025
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Bulletins and News Discussion from June 23rd to June 29th, 2025 - Iran, Harden Your Deep Military Sites
(hexbear.net)
Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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So, what's everyone's take on the possibility of the US taking on China?
Non-zero, in the same sense that there’s a non-zero chance that time-traveling aliens land on Earth and impose global communism tomorrow
The possibility of the United States taking in China is non-zero, yes. But China is not Iran. You get into a hot war with China, you're fucked. China's air force right now has parity with the United States. Give it a few more years and China will have sixth generation fighters, America won't. China's anti-ship missiles and ballistics could destroy the entire US Pacific fleet and its bases with little effort. The United States lacks the will to pursue a war like this, and the global economy would implode.
Iran: 90 million people
China: 1.4 billion people
Ted Cruz: I don't go around memorizing population numbers
War with China would inevitably cause trade disruptions that fuck the global economy. Unless the failchild-fash have full control it won’t happen because the capitalists that understand how their bread is buttered would never accept the economic damage outside of a looming existential threat to the status quo and China is more than happy to boil the frog it seems (for now at least).
If the US manages to encircle China, it becomes more likely. The general incompetence of states that need to fall in order to encircle China is the major risk, but they haven’t fallen yet.
I don't see how they can truly encircle China. Russia and Mongolia to the North are secure, Central Asia is mostly secure, Southeast Asia is much closer with China than the US. Obviously there's India, Japan, and Korea, expanding that meaningfully gets less likely with each passing day.
It's so hard for me to imagine the US having anything like the political will to do something like that.
That being said, I could totally see it just stumbling into it
But to stick it out? That's what I can't see.
Amerikkka is already overstretched. I don't see how the Great Satan goes into a hot war with China. But then, there's still plenty of room for CIA shenanigans.
I've heard that they're talking about by 2027. I heard it on a podcast, but the guy seemed to have a lot of bad takes, so I'm not sure how credible it was
I've heard that date thrown around, respectively attributed to 1) Xi saying that China must be military ready for armed reunification by that date, but not presupposing that armed reunification is the only option and 2) a RAND report that said the US would fall behind the PRC in terms of military capability by this date and the USA could not secure Taiwan in the event of armed reunification. I do not put stock in the former. PRC foreign affairs has always said China would prefer peaceful reunification and has set no fixed date. Taiwan surveys also show that 'keep the status quo' is usually the most preferred option so there is no set timeline for Taiwanese independence afaict, because it would be politically disastrous for any party that set that timer ticking
did he actually say that or is this a western deliberate misrepresentation/completely fabricated lie?
There is a less than zero chance of a 2027 war, and a near-zero chance of a war, ever. Why would either side rock the boat when the status quo is working out just fine?
The Taiwan situation will probably remain unchanged until climate change renders it uninhabitable.
Everyone on this forum will be long dead and gone and the same meaningless posturing from both sides will continue unabated. The west will continue to sail through the Taiwan strait, China will continue to hand out final warnings like candy, our grandkids will be talking about the 12th generation fighters, sloptubers will be doomsaying about the coming war in 2127, repeat ad nauseum until everyone is literally cooked to death and all that’s left of this will-they-won’t-they farce are strongly-worded letters left unpublished.
Climate catastrophe will necessarily push Taiwan towards the mainland, not in the least for fresh water and food when intensified tropical cyclones roll over the island. But by the time it gets to that point (mid-century with the current outlooks...) it'll be moot. Taibei will be wet bulb temps throughout summer and essentially uninhabitable.