this post was submitted on 20 Jul 2026
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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

An image of Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, c. February, where Iranian strikes have caused substantial damage and several US soldier deaths and casualties.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleAfter an uncertain beginning to this second major period of hostilities, we can now see the overall plan for either side.

For the Americans, their fire has been primarily focussed on southern Iran, where they have been attempting to break Iran's control of Hormuz by a steady campaign of striking both military and civilian sites. Additionally, it looks like the US is attempting to shape the battlefield around Bandas Abbas and Qeshm Island for some kind of incursion, as we have seen bridges and tunnels in the vicinity struck by missiles. The key word there is "attempting", because there are several things wrong with this plan both tactically and strategically.

Tactically, Iran has demonstrated the ability to very quickly get their transportation infrastructure repaired, and the US simply isn't firing volleys in the required amounts - and towards the right targets (they're using several missiles on purely civilian targets, like fishing boats) - to meaningfully degrade Iranian control of even this sector of the coastline. Additionally, an amphibious assault on Qeshm Island in the style of the WW2 Pacific theater is essentially impossible unless Iran, for whatever reason, allowed it. The gauntlet that any ship holding Marines would have to run to get to the island precludes this, let alone also transporting heavy weaponry and materiel for resupply. Using helicopter-borne troops or paratroopers would be much more feasible, but runs into even greater logistical problems if the US wanted to do anything there other than a brief skirmish before withdrawing. Strategically, even if the US waved a magic wand and took Qeshm Island, it's unclear what this would do to fulfill war aims. The most obvious intention would be to trade it back to Iran in return for a major Iranian concession, but what if you take the island, you call up Iran saying "Alright, let's get this deal running! First, I want no Hormuz tolls--" and Iran just... hung up, and kept firing drones and missiles and artillery at your forces on the island until they either all died or were forced to retreat? It's not a tenable position to hold, and Iran's capabilities to affect shipping in Hormuz are obviously not all concentrated on one single island.

So, what is Iran's strategy? It's what one analyst (Amerikanets) has termed "debasification". If the first phase of the war from late February to mid-April was focussed primarily on generally destroying and disrupting the US's military infrastructure in the region, what this second phase has planned is something more like a region-wide missile advance. Starting from the Gulf states and their US bases, the plan is to push back American planes and soldiers to further and further afield bases and thereby make sorties against Iran take much more time, fuel, and use more resupply planes. Iranian strikes are, as of me writing this, concentrated on Jordan, where a recent Iranian strike caused the first admission of soldier deaths in quite some time. The Iranian goal is clearly to push back all US planes to at least the Zionist entity, by which point, unless they are withdrawn further back all the way to Europe, the planes will all be so concentrated on so few bases that it will become a physical impossibility to get them all scrambled before Iranian strikes hit. Compared to the US's strategy, Iran's is immediately bearing fruit, with US strikes already very limited in intensity compared to the first phase of the war months ago. The irony of the US breaking off negotiations - again! - to pursue a new strategy that already looks to be profoundly failing is truly some inspired stuff; the genocidal architects of American imperium in the mid-20th century are rolling in their graves.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

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The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


top 50 comments
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[–] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 25 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Step 1. become PM after paedo supporting child murderer steps down in disgrace.

Step 2. Spend a week or so o a consent manufacturing tour, paying lip service to the fact predecessor sucked ass, cancel one (1) policy that would've been postponed indefinitely anyway

Step 3. Do literally nothing else and commit to the exact same ideology of endless cuts to welfare to fund the US-Israeli MIC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy4k8xke81wo

[–] WeedReference420@hexbear.net 16 points 1 day ago

Another Red Tory banger! tory

[–] brutal@hexbear.net 21 points 1 day ago

so what is the current "consensus" on strategic oil reserves? what happens if the market runs dry on oil?:

https://archive.md/vRftP

[–] MemesAreTheory@hexbear.net 59 points 1 day ago (1 children)

The trickle truth begins.

Pentagon reports more than 600 Iran war casualties in quiet database update

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jul/26/pentagon-iran-war-troop-deaths-casualty-report

[–] NeelixBiederman@hexbear.net 27 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

Do we know if this is cumulative or just from recent events?

Edit: 18 killed, 482 wounded is the highest number the pentagon has admitted to at a point. 140 wounded since 7/7

[–] WilsonWilson@hexbear.net 32 points 1 day ago

Thomas Massie says Trump is using the MOU pause to define the attacks on Iran as two different wars. He claims they are doing it to avoid getting congressional approval but it also allowed them to split the casualties between the two and make It look like Iran's response has been less effective.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 20 points 1 day ago

Combined with the updated Operation Epic Fury totals, the new Pentagon figures show that 18 US troops have been killed and 624 wounded since the US launched its war against Iran on 28 February.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 49 points 1 day ago (3 children)

Very long Bernie tweet

GAZA: THE SUFFERING CONTINUES [blah blah blah] Enough is enough! Congress must listen to the American people. NO MORE U.S. MILITARY AID TO ISRAEL.

Full textToday in Gaza, most of the TV cameras are gone and media interest has declined. But, more than nine months after the announcement of a supposed “ceasefire”, the suffering of the Palestinian people continues.

Today, 92% of housing units in Gaza are damaged or destroyed, 70% of the entire population lacks adequate housing and is forced to live in makeshift shelters, 86% of agricultural water wells have been damaged, the vast majority of households report significant challenges in accessing safe and clean sanitation facilities and 90% of all energy infrastructure has been destroyed.

And what about the children? Today in Gaza, 91% of school-aged children do not have sustained access to in-person education, 93% of school buildings will require full reconstruction or major rehabilitation to be functional again and 70% of infants and young children under two years of age are experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity.

All of this is taking place after the horrific destruction that Netanyahu’s extremist government brought to Gaza over the last three years: more than 73,000 Palestinians killed and 173,000 wounded — mostly women, children and the elderly. In addition, virtually the entire infrastructure of Gaza was destroyed.

Israel now controls an estimated 70% of Gaza, well beyond what they agreed to, and has built dozens of military outposts inside Gaza since the “ceasefire” began. In the nine months since the “ceasefire” was announced, Israel has killed at least 1,150 Palestinians, including a family of six last week.

Now, as if to remove any doubt about their intentions, senior leaders of the Netanyahu government are moving to make the occupation permanent. Recently, a number of government ministers led thousands of settlers to the Gaza border demanding new illegal Jewish settlements be built there. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir stood up and said "Gaza is ours."

The shameful fact is that the United States is complicit in everything that is happening in Gaza. We have funneled tens of billions of dollars in military aid to an Israeli government that has consistently violated international law and whose leader is a war criminal.

The good news is that the American people are catching on. More and more Americans — Democrats, Republicans and independents — are demanding that we stop all military aid to Israel and use our considerable leverage to end the suffering of the Palestinian people.

Enough is enough! Congress must listen to the American people. NO MORE U.S. MILITARY AID TO ISRAEL.

https://xcancel.com/SenSanders/status/2081514845971927481#m

[–] miz@hexbear.net 44 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

most of the TV cameras are gone and media interest has declined

damn it's almost like you refused to use the word genocide and ran cover for it for years you fucking clown fuck off and die, you can finally see your good friend Biden because his brain is already dead

[–] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 32 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Mr. "Six months of genocide is cool actually" trying to pad his image in history by dressing up as Captain Obvious

Didn't he confirm Rubio by the way?

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 12 points 1 day ago

Rubio's vote was 99-0. Bipartisan comity! I don't know who abstained.

[–] duderium@hexbear.net 19 points 1 day ago

We just need to help the israelis with defensive military aid so that they can commit genocide defensively. 🥰

[–] Socialism_Is_The_Alternative@hexbear.net 63 points 1 day ago (3 children)

Iran issued a warning to the Kiev regime, following yesterday's aggression:

The top Iranian diplomat noted that he raised the issue in separate phone calls with European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

He said he made clear during the conversations that the attack "cannot go unanswered."

"I made clear that what the freeloader in Kyiv did CANNOT GO UNANSWERED," he wrote.

https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/07/26/773112/Iran-Ukraine-Araghchi-Europe

[–] Ram_The_Manparts@hexbear.net 24 points 1 day ago

Imagine having to talk with Kaja Kallas

[–] Parzivus@hexbear.net 43 points 1 day ago (3 children)

freeloader in Kyiv is crazy

[–] Transform2942@lemmy.ml 29 points 1 day ago (2 children)

The Iranians always seem to have a withering English teacher-style roast at hand

[–] culpritus@hexbear.net 20 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Z really does seem to have a similar character to Antinous.

  • a literature teacher happy that The Odyssey is the current fad

freebaser in kyiv

[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 31 points 1 day ago

Was it an Iranian ship or Iranian purchased goods on a Russian ship? Where did the strike actually occur in the Caspian?

[–] Socialism_Is_The_Alternative@hexbear.net 61 points 1 day ago (3 children)

Iranian General Hossein Mohebbi commented on recent US military casualties:

“The American statistics regarding the number of casualties are a sheer lie,” Mohebbi said.

He said in attacks on American targets, Iran hit 8 troop deployment centers, and in one case alone, there were 20 shelters that were destroyed.

The number of American deaths in Operation Nasr II (Iran’s defense against US attacks in last two weeks) is more than 200; the number of wounded is much higher, he noted.

https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/07/25/3656203/irgc-spokesman-us-death-toll-after-violating-mou-exceeds-200

[–] AlHouthi4President@lemmy.ml 30 points 1 day ago

I wonder why the US hasn't bombed Iran in two days hehehe. Right after Iranian military promised 1 dead US soldier per 1 Iranian martyred.

👻

[–] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 24 points 1 day ago (1 children)

To be fair they do seem to be taking shelter away from the troop quarters at some bases... just their shelters are about as flimsy as the tents they usually stay in

[–] TreadOnMe@hexbear.net 24 points 1 day ago

Some of these bases are literally made out of shipping containers... The amount of graft is absolutely crazy. But like, most of our construction industry is graft too, so this is unsurprising.

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 60 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Unreleased documentary footage shows Lindsey Graham extremely happy that Trump finally bombed Iran.

“Look what we’ve done here. I almost cried… How long have we been pushing this?” Graham says after U.S. strikes begin.

Graham also says Trump told him the strikes were the “best thing I have ever done” and that he “loves blowing stuff up.”

X link, XCancel link

[–] MrPiss@hexbear.net 45 points 1 day ago

“Look what we’ve done here. I almost cried… How long have we been pushing this?” Graham says after U.S. strikes begin.

holden-bloodfeast on assassinating world leaders, bombing schools, and destroying the global economy.

[–] CriticalXipport@hexbear.net 41 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

"Trump and Bibi are like Roosevelt and Churchill" holden-bloodfeast

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 52 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Trump has started a posting spree on Truth Social Among the posts are AI images of strikes on Kharg Island, an imaginary movie poster starring Trump called ‘Cosmic Commander’, and other things.

  • Middle East Spectator
[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 36 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

I was just looking at his feed. Kind of crazy, everything from B2s bombing Iran to "PLAN TRUSTED" (QAnon reference) to "Cosmic Commander" Star Trek AI fake posters and then a couple of real graphs about Trump admin recess appointments in between all the AI slop posts for some reason. I'd say he did over 25 posts in two hours.

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 33 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I know that Trump used to love to post really dumb (and some times funny) shit all the time. But nowadays feels like it's either someone else, or grok, posting pretending to be him.

[–] CriticalXipport@hexbear.net 30 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] Chana@hexbear.net 19 points 1 day ago

It's like someone choose the wrong hat on purpose. After careful deliberation.

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 29 points 1 day ago (2 children)

I don't even know anymore. Maybe they show these to Trump and he believes these are real pictures?

[–] Damarcusart@hexbear.net 20 points 1 day ago

A lot of boomers do have that problem with AI, even really obvious AI pictures they can still think it is real.

[–] Transform2942@lemmy.ml 30 points 1 day ago

I have a pet theory that he just scrolls the algorithmic feed like everyone else (except it's in his sandbox that he owns)

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 59 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (17 children)

Why is Trump so obsessed with Kharg, it looks like such a tiny island here on this here very real picture that Trump published.

Iran is finished. Time to surrender.

[–] supafuzz@hexbear.net 44 points 2 days ago (2 children)
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[–] Transform2942@lemmy.ml 39 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

It's their white whale, their catnip

  • it's an island so they think they can seize it with special forces (by far the most effective component of the imperial military)
  • they love to stick their grubby mitts into other people's oil
  • they are massively overestimating the amount of leverage it would give them. They think if they sieze the island they can literally get Iran to capitulate

Q: what do you call American assault troops on Iranian Islands?

A: POWs

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[–] Hestia@hexbear.net 17 points 1 day ago

Ok, new plan. We make an AI slop video for Trump about invading Kharg and then just gaslight him into believing he already took it over

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 52 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (14 children)

Updated NASA FIRM imagery shows an expanding fire at the Saudi Jazan refinery complex hit by Ansarallah. The fire more than doubled since the complex was hit around 40 hours ago. By @bonzerbarry

The refinery has a capacity of around 400k barrels per day and was completed five years ago.

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[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 58 points 2 days ago (10 children)

Not combat-related? What then? Were they suffering from ennui?

CBS News - More than 400 U.S. service members have been flown out of the Middle East for various types of treatment since Operation Epic Fury began, a U.S. official told CBS News. However, most cases were not combat-related, the official said. Operation Epic Fury, the military campaign carried out jointly by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, started Feb. 28.

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[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 50 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Iran-US war latest: Oil tanker explodes after hitting mine in Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state media claims

An oil tanker has exploded after hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s state-affiliated Tasnim news agency said on Sunday.

Tasnim said the tanker struck the mine after leaving the route designated by Iran in the strategic waterway. There was no immediate official statement from Iranian authorities regarding the incident.

Rest of article is UK-US copium and bravado.

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 63 points 2 days ago (8 children)

NBC Interview:

WELKER: Is America backing away from a larger military attack because our stockpile has been depleted?

MIKE WALTZ: We have to take a step back here. A lot of our stockpiles were depleted because of Biden. Not only Ukraine... but also Biden's fight with the Houthis

WELKER: But you acknowledge they're depleted?

WALTZ: No. The US military has everything that it needs to conduct this campaign... And the people leaking this nonsense deserve to be in jail.

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[–] Crambler@hexbear.net 57 points 2 days ago (12 children)

I don't understand what is happening right now. Everything that led the US to back off the last time still applies. Dwindling standoff and AD stockpiles. Economic pressures of strait closure (now x 2), invincible missile bases and debasification, etc.

They just tried doing the same thing they were doing before, and it of course didn't work. If you aren't going to seriously escalate, what was even the point of starting up again, let alone moving tons of new equipment to the region?

I guess maybe escalation is still the plan and this pause is a just a ploy, but if not, it seems all this achieved was to put the US in an even worse bargaining position than before. All 100% predictable. What gives?

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 54 points 2 days ago (8 children)

I agree with the US department of war

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