There's a video essay that covers this topic: Where are all the Skyrim Killers

The big takeaway is that it's really expensive to do, and it's only gotten more expensive since Morrowind with the expectation of fully voice acted dialogue and complex schedules. Not even Skyrim has full schedules for all NPC's tbh.

Ok, tangent time: I have to wonder if another factor is public perception. Look at discussions on Starfield that pop up and you inevitably get people with... interesting takes.

I've seem people argue that Bethesda's formula is outdated, which is ridiculous. There's plenty of people who still enjoy going back to old games or renewing old formulas. Just look at boomer shooters, which also rely on an "antiquated formula".

Then there's people that haven't picked up a Bethesda game since Skyrim, and complain about how the Creation Engine is outdated. They don't realize that it's gotten a lot of improvements over the years, such as updating it to a 64-bit instruction set for Fallout 4 and Skyrim Special Edition, which has drastically increased stability. Or creating ESL and ESP-FE plugins that effectively add 4095 plugin slots since the original 255 was too restrictive. Or the improvements in gunplay with Fallout 4 and Starfield. Or all the modifications they did to make Starfield even possible.

That being said, I think Bethesda should look into releasing the Creation Engine into open source. There's some impressive work the modding community has done to add in features they care about using SKSE plugins or Community Shaders

If Crimson Desert is akin to a modern Skyrim, Tainted Grail Fall of Avalon would be akin to a modern Oblivion. Very unique quests and characters. You do have somewhat of a main quest requirement but it’s not required that you do it first or all at once.

Why aren't there more competitors in the Single Player, Open World, Fantasy, RPG niche?

Because it is hard to make them. They require a lot of assets, a lot of development time, a lot of writing, etc. Bethesda dominates the genre because nobody else wants to take the risk to pay developers to try for something that might be really expensive and bring back little return. And this particular genre is a nightmare for solo and indie developer teams.

Indie and solo developers want to make a game in this genre, but its unrealistic to expect any will be successful. Even I had deslusions of developing my own before I decided to switch to a slightly smaller genre for my own game project. I think all indie and solo developers at one point have had to come to the realization that its not realistic. Its just too much work.

Bethesda's game engine, Creation Engine, actually helps them in this case, because it is purpose built for this genre. It is significantly easier for them to make another one because they already have most of the systems already in place. Compared to using generalist engines like Unity or Unreal, Creation Engine (I used to know it as NetImmerse) gives a huge leg up on creating that type of game, significantly reducing the time and money investment required.

Crazy nobody mentioned dragon's dogma dark arisen yet

What about Black Desert 🤔 has been around since forever and sorta checks the boxes. I got 500h in that game and didn't even finish the main story lol

https://store.steampowered.com/app/582660/Black_Desert/

Tainted Grail honestly would probably be the closest feeling to a Bethesda game. I've played it, and it's really fun. The magic feels good, but the two-handed fighting feels best imo, super beefy. It's not quite as open as a Bethesda game, but there are plenty of choices, things to do and collect/craft, all kinds of little side quests to give you a good view into what life is like on the island.

Another person brought up Lantern of the Laughless Saint, which is currently in development and I don't think there's a demo yet or if there will be. It does look pretty fun though.

There's also Sword Hero which is also in development by a single dev, but there's a playable demo on steam and it's looking like it's gonna be pretty big. There's directional physics-based combat, where if you turn your camera into the swing of your weapon you'll do more damage, and you can target individual limbs; I believe it'll have a semi-persistent world where people will remember if you've pissed them off before; it has Kenshi-like lore, where they live on a ringworld that has advanced technology around the place like automated medics and prosthetic limbs (there is dismemberment and you can lose your limbs); dragons and other fantasy monsters. Honestly it looks like it might be my next most anticipated game.

I strongly prefer games with fixed character(s). The biggest problem with open character creation is that it necessitates a narritive full of generic dialogue and events to accommodate every possibility the player might choose. Fixed characters live in a world where they belong, and that world regards them as developed and known individuals, rather than rudimentary flavor dialogue that may account for species, gender, faction, or class.

Roleplaying Geralt, Aloy, Arthur Morgan, and Cal Kestis means pathos, story, and character development. Vault dweller, Dragon-born, and the Tarnished One are coat-racks that you hang armor sets on.

you should play the enderal saga , it's the closest to what you are looking for. It's a collection of total conversion mods for the tes games. Enderal is widely known since it relseaded for Skyrim but there's also Nehrim for oblivokn and arkwend and myar aranath for Morrowind.

8 personally love Nehrim so much I have over 300 hours played on gog and haven't even finished the main story yet

There's very little out there that will check all of those boxes. Never Knows Best did a great video on it. Lots of imitators have decided to hone in on a few of those aspects that make Bethesda games tick without spreading their focus like Bethesda games do, because one can easily argue that in a Bethesda game, no one part of the formula is every truly great on its own. That said, other than KCD2, which you've acknowledged as non-fantasy, there are two other options that I know of.

There's Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon that came out last year. I haven't gotten around to it yet, but I hear good things. Never Knows Best had his own issues with things that it did worse than Bethesda, but I think that was while the game was in early access or something. The other is called The Lantern of the Laughless Saint that I first heard about on the Computer RPG community here on Lemmy; it isn't out yet, but has a release date listed as 2026, which might be early access for all I know. They put together a somewhat funny stereotypical TikTok trailer for the game where they're really honing in on the systemic nature that people romanticize about Bethesda games, touting that you can use magic to make yourself jump so high that you won't survive the fall.

I hear a lot of good things about Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon. I have yet to really play it but it does have that feel to it form what little I played.

A streamers I like played through Avowed, and didn’t feel it had nearly as many problems as the internet claimed.

It's very expensive to make good content that a player can miss is why.

I don't know of any other games that fit the niche (I've looked as well) that are also good (there's a mobile game called Exiled Kingdoms that's pretty good, but it's a mobile game).

I have found some other games scratch the itch pretty well though. Assassin's Creed Valhalla actually does for me, even though you're locked into one character with like 10 unique choices that determine a few different cutscenes. Maybe for me it's because the world is pretty, the story is (mostly) interesting, it's close enough to historical accuracy without belaboring the point (like kingdom come), and the way the story is played is kind of in line with what I'd be doing anyway.

But, I do feel your pain and wish we could have a different type of Elder Scrolls that wasn't just mods.

Ultima 1-9.

Though 4 is arguably the best.

I'm fairly certain that Hogwarts Legacy checks all of those boxes.

Avowed and Tainted Grail: Fall of Avalon are the most Skyrim-like games I've seen recently, but I can't speak for their quality. Dragon's Dogma would be an ideal fit but it's 3rd person.

Avowed

I think it's worth to have a look at either the Gothic or Risen games, both made by the same people. They are quite old and janky, but they check a lot of your boxes.

There's also a remake comming up for Gothic 1.

Dragon age: Origins, 2 and Inquisition? I think it fits all, although it is squad based and can be played in turns, at lower difficulty it is entirely viable to play as a 1st person action game where AI squad members assist. The story is somewhat scripted but it does feel kind of open world if I remember correctly. Haven’t played for a long time, but I remember I liked it and it wasn’t too different from Elder Scrolls as the overall experience.

The Quest for Glory series from Sierra fits your niche. Too bad it's MS-DOS for 1-4 and Windows XP for 5. It's an adventure game but it also has significant role playing elements. Especially numbers 3, 4, and 5.

Quest for Glory 1 - So you want to be a hero (Medieval Germany)

Quest for Glory 2 - Trial by Fire (Ancient Persia)

Quest for Glory 3 - Wages of War (Ancient Egypt and ancient tribal Africa)

Quest for Glory 4 - Shadows of Darkness (Medieval Russia)

Quest for Glory 5 - Dragon Fire (Ancient Greece)

Crimson desert feels like a fun combo of skyrim and modern zelda though some might no like it I'm enjoying the lack of choices and I didn't know I wanted that from an RPGish game