this post was submitted on 01 Mar 2026
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A Boring Dystopia

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[–] obinice@lemmy.world 32 points 1 day ago (4 children)

"Prediction market". Let's just call it what it is:

Gambling.

What a stupid waste of time and money, encouraging addiction and ruin in people.

[–] billwashere@lemmy.world 6 points 10 hours ago

No let’s really called it what it is:

Fraud and insider trading.

[–] PlaidBaron@lemmy.world 1 points 10 hours ago

I mean, yeah but are we glossing over the fact rich people are gambling as though its a game when real people are being killed? Cause thats the story for me.

[–] fonix232@fedia.io 20 points 1 day ago (1 children)

The "prediction market" is different because it's for the already wealthy to make more money based on insider information. It's not for you and me to put in $50 and walk away with $100 if we're lucky, but for someone who already knows what's about to happen to put in 500k, walk away with a million and then claim they made their wealth legitimately...

[–] Test_Tickles@lemmy.world 9 points 1 day ago (2 children)

I think you completely skipped the most exciting part where it can also be used to launder money and make covert payments under the guise of winning bets.

[–] fonix232@fedia.io 3 points 11 hours ago

Oh no, that part was implied. Heavily.

[–] surewhynotlem@lemmy.world 3 points 18 hours ago

And it's cheaper than buying and selling "art" for the same purpose.

[–] Knock_Knock_Lemmy_In@lemmy.world 2 points 20 hours ago

If you know the outcome, is it gambling?

[–] chicken@lemmy.dbzer0.com 13 points 23 hours ago (1 children)

What I'm hearing from this article is that all recent US military operations have been leaked in advance

[–] BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.today 8 points 18 hours ago (1 children)

Leaked? They've been loudly threatening to do it for the last few weeks, and moved every piece of materiel and manpower to the region. It wasn't exactly a wild guess.

[–] chicken@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 11 hours ago

The article is insinuating that inside information was used to make money on the specific date:

Now there are suspicions that other insiders used the Iran strikes to get rich. Six accounts on Polymarket reportedly won approximately $1.2 million by predicting the U.S. would launch a strike on Iran on February 28, according to CoinDesk.

The other example is more convincing though:

When the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January, an individual with a relatively new account pumped $30,000 into a bet that Maduro would be ousted. Hours later, the Trump administration captured Maduro, earning the gambler more than $436,000.