A Boring Dystopia

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Millions worth of prediction market bets placed on US airstrikes on Iran (www.independent.co.uk)

submitted 1 day ago by supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz to c/aboringdystopia@lemmy.world

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[–] BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.today 8 points 18 hours ago (1 children)

Leaked? They've been loudly threatening to do it for the last few weeks, and moved every piece of materiel and manpower to the region. It wasn't exactly a wild guess.

[–] chicken@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 10 hours ago

The article is insinuating that inside information was used to make money on the specific date:

Now there are suspicions that other insiders used the Iran strikes to get rich. Six accounts on Polymarket reportedly won approximately $1.2 million by predicting the U.S. would launch a strike on Iran on February 28, according to CoinDesk.

The other example is more convincing though:

When the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January, an individual with a relatively new account pumped $30,000 into a bet that Maduro would be ousted. Hours later, the Trump administration captured Maduro, earning the gambler more than $436,000.