this post was submitted on 08 Sep 2025
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Analysis and images of the parades is all over the internet and in the last megathread; for the China-India stuff I recommend this article, as well as the Tricontinental in general.

Image is from @xiaohongshu@hexbear.net's comment in the last megathread.


Last week was the 80th anniversary of the end of World War 2, and on such an occasion, China put on quite an impressive military parade, especially in comparison to the rather drab and corporate parade that the USA recently had. In attendance were many world leaders, including Putin, Kim Jong Un, and a very happy-looking Lukashenko.

This took place shortly after the SCO summit in Tianjin, in which Modi was notably in attendance. That one of the world's most powerful fascists was in attendance in China near the anniversary of the World Antifascist War is obviously pretty ironic. Regardless, the mood was still relatively positive; for example, Xi announced the acceleration of the creation of the SCO development bank, and Indian-Chinese relations are once again in the thaw cycle of their long-term cyclical pattern, with direct flights resumed and links expanded. The fact that there is this much projected optimism from China about a Global South which is being increasingly tariffed, infiltrated, starved, looted, bombed, invaded, and massacred in the hundreds of thousands by rabid imperialist dogs is perhaps a little tone-deaf, but buoying up the SCO is better than doing nothing at all, I suppose.

Any astute Geopolitics Understander can tell you that this is certainly not India joining the side of the Global South, but instead a move somewhat forced upon them as they seek to balance both sides for their own gain. As Trump amps up pressure on India via tariffs, it is natural that India would seek leverage, and there is much that India gains: industrial development, increased intra-regional trade, and scientific knowledge from a China which has, in numerous fields, now pulled ahead of the USA. India is also facing numerous internal crises, ranging from run-of-the-mill capitalist incompetence and corruption, to worsening conditions for farmers, to the ravaging impacts of climate change, and increasing their links with China is a way to vent off a little of that pressure and protect Modi's regime.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 60 points 2 months ago (7 children)

BLS revises job growth between April ’24 and March ’25.

911 thousand fewer jobs were created than previously believed, average job gains before revision =147,000 per month, average job gains after revision = 71,000/month

This confirms what we've all been saying, that the Biden admin was lying about job creation in 2024 in order to help out Biden/Kamala in an election year. Maybe the only competent thing they did that year!

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[–] SexMachineStalin@hexbear.net 60 points 2 months ago (22 children)

Zohran Mandami confirmed turboliberalism (AP):

PIGPOOPBALLS 9/11

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[–] whatdoiputhere12@hexbear.net 60 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (4 children)
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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 60 points 2 months ago (2 children)

the burger-reich flies its Golden Arches flag at half-mast in honor of Charlie Kirk

(apparently this is some kind of silly flag custom thing where since the main flag is flown at half-mast, all other flags also have to be lowered so as to not be higher than it, but it's still really fucking funny)

https://xcancel.com/carolrosenberg/status/1966213136068825252

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[–] Cheesewizzard@hexbear.net 60 points 2 months ago (3 children)

I have a theory. It is well established that Luigi did not kill that healthcare guy — he is the patsy. Bless the kid, he seems like a good guy caught up in something he didn’t do.

So, that means this leftist, highly skilled WACKJOB that killed the beloved CEO is still out there.

The guy (or gal or g[them]) that capped Charles Kirk was most likely the real killer of Beloved Healthcare CEO.

ALL FORMS OF VIOLENCE SICKEN ME! World peace now please.

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 59 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (3 children)

Latest Trump truth social post

Uhh what does he mean by this?

Source

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[–] Socialism_Is_The_Alternative@hexbear.net 59 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Nikolai Starikov, a political analyst quoted on RT, made some good comments on the ongoing color coup attempt in Nepal:

Here’s all you really need to know about the “Maidan” in Nepal: start by looking at the map. Then read the so-called reasons for the unrest – a ban on social media. The law requiring platforms to register was passed two years ago!

Now, remember where Nepal sits – between India and China. Just a week ago, New Delhi and Beijing patched things up and moved closer together. And suddenly, riots break out in Nepal. A full-blown Ukrainian-style uprising. Mobs storm the parliament, police respond with water cannons and rubber bullets. And yet somehow we’re already hearing about a high death toll.

The rioters’ slogans? “Against corruption.” Out front you see schoolkids and college students – the familiar “they’re just kids” narrative. I recognize the handiwork of a master. Classic.

https://www.rt.com/news/624371-nepal-generation-z-revolution/

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[–] CthulhusIntern@hexbear.net 59 points 2 months ago (6 children)

Sometimes, I wonder what anti-tankie Reddit libs would say about Allende being overthrown in Chile if they were around then.

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[–] FALGSConaut@hexbear.net 59 points 2 months ago (6 children)
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[–] Clippy@hexbear.net 59 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (3 children)

trump on truth social, kirk is dead

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[–] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 59 points 2 months ago (6 children)

US economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported in largest-ever revision

This is literally the ABC title for the news about the job losses

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[–] VILenin@hexbear.net 59 points 2 months ago

Looks like Charlie Kirk couldn’t talk fast enough this time. Nazi loser DESTROYED.

I hope all his nazi fanboys get PTSD from this and have debilitating nightmares for the rest of their wretched lives

[–] dumpster_dove@hexbear.net 58 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Trump allegedly demanding that the EU slap up to 100% tariffs on India and China, according to Reuters.

The EU diplomat said the U.S. had indicated it was willing to impose similar tariffs if the European Union heeded the U.S. request.

So is this where Trump demands that the EU do an economic kamikaze attack and has them take blame if they refuse? Saying that they'll do it too, but the EU has to go first, is kinda suspicious.

https://archive.is/u11Me

[–] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 58 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Al-Mayadeen is reporting that all Hamas representatives survived the attack in Qatar.

inshallah

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[–] redchert@lemmygrad.ml 58 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

There is currently another school shooting underway in Colorado

EDIT: At least 2 students shot by gunfire at a Denver-area high school

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[–] marxisthayaca@hexbear.net 58 points 2 months ago (6 children)

Donald Trump's birthday card to Jeffrey Epstein is 100% an underage child. Like, if there was ever any doubt, that drawing should dispel it.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 58 points 2 months ago (6 children)

U.S. Obstructs Return of South Korean Workers Detained in Hyundai-LG Plant - Telesur English

Article

More than 300 South Koreans remain in U.S. custody over visa issues. On Wednesday, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said the United States is obstructing the repatriation of more than 300 South Koreans detained at the Hyundai Motor and LG Energy Solution battery plant.

“Their departure has become difficult due to circumstances on the U.S. side,” the South Korean ministry said, without giving details on what is delaying a swift return.

“We are holding consultations with the U.S. side to ensure their departure as soon as possible. We will provide updates as new developments arise,” it added.

The announcement came just hours after Seoul chartered a Korean Air flight to repatriate the South Koreans, who were detained last week during a raid at the Hyundai-LG plant in Georgia.

U.S. authorities, who arrested another 175 people of various nationalities during the raid, accused the South Koreans of lacking proper work visas or using permits that did not allow them to work at the plant.

The charter flight was scheduled to depart Sept. 10 with the South Korean nationals on board. Seoul has been negotiating with Washington to ensure that the departure of its citizens is voluntary, hoping to avoid consequences that could complicate their ability to reenter the U.S. in the future.

South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun was scheduled to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss the detainees and the issuance of visas for South Korean technicians in the country. The case has fueled public discontent in South Korea, sparking protests in Seoul.

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[–] jack@hexbear.net 58 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Feels like we're in a bit of a Happening period the last few days. Not quite decades in weeks, but months in days maybe.

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[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 57 points 2 months ago
[–] miz@hexbear.net 57 points 2 months ago

of course the Kirk shooter had to go for a neck shot. his face was too small of a target

[–] Torenico@hexbear.net 57 points 2 months ago (9 children)

Milei suffers major setback in bellwether vote

With 91% of polling stations reporting, Fuerza Patria has 47% of vote against nearly 34% for Milei's ruling La Libertad Avanza.

President Javier Milei vowed Sunday to "accelerate" his libertarian reforms after a crushing defeat in elections in Buenos Aires Province. The regional vote carries significant weight and comes ahead of highly anticipated midterms on October 26.

The 54-year-old economist has slashed public spending, dismissed tens of thousands of public employees and led a major deregulation drive since taking office in December 2023. He acknowledged his party's "clear defeat" by the centre-left Peronist movement in the elections to the legislature of Buenos Aires Province, the country's economic powerhouse.

A deflated-sounding Milei admitted to unspecified "mistakes" which he vowed to "correct" but said he would not be swayed "one millimetre" from his reform agenda. “Not only will we continue on the same course, but we will deepen and accelerate it,” he said at a muted election night event in the resort of La Plata, where he took the stage in silence, in marked contrast to his usual dramatic entrance to rock music.

Most of his officials left the headquarters as soon as the President finished speaking, without making any statements to the press. With 91 percent of the votes counted, the centre-left Fuerza Patria coalition had taken over 47 percent of the vote against nearly 34 percent for Milei's ruling La Libertad Avanza, official results showed. The 13-point gap between Milei's party and the left was far greater than opinion polls had predicted. Turnout in the election was high, at around 63 percent.

Elections in Buenos Aires Province are telling as a bellwether for Argentina. The region contributes more than 30 percent of Argentina's GDP and accounts for 40 percent of all eligible voters. The election renewed 23 Senate seats and 46 banks in the provincial legislature. The result poses major concerns for Milei, coming just six weeks before midterm elections. Some members of his party downplayed the extent of the defeat, pointing out that La Libertad Avanza had nonetheless increased its share of legislators in Buenos Aires Province.

The government went into the election under a cloud following a corruption scandal at the ANDIS national disability agency involving the president's sister and right-hand woman, Karina Milei.

In a sign of the anger among many Argentines over the affair, Milei and his sister were pelted with stones on the campaign trail in late August, with skirmishes breaking out among supporters and opponents. Karina Milei, who has not defended herself publicly, voted at around noon and left surrounded by supporters, without making any statements to the press. The ruling party's election drubbing comes three days after Milei suffered a major setback when Congress overturned his veto of a law increasing allowances for disabled people.

Disabled people bad, according to the ancaps. Straight up nazi shit.

On the economic front, the self-described "anarcho-capitalist" is struggling also, despite success in fighting inflation and in erasing a fiscal deficit. Last week, his government began selling treasury dollars to stem the depreciation of the currency, the peso, which had been accelerating in recent weeks despite high interest rates.

"We must learn from this” [election defeat], La Libertad Avanza candidate Diego Valenzuela told AFP, claiming that the result "was due to not engaging in economic populism, which is new in Argentina." His remarks were aimed at the Peronists, accused by Milei of leading South America's second-biggest economy to ruin through excessive spending and protectionism. Milei's party absorbed former president Mauricio Macri's (2015-19) PRO party for the elections, while Peronism secured hard-fought unity despite multiple internal rifts.

Electoralism sucks for sure but it's still good the see the ancaps lose regardless. Their handling of the economy is, to say the least, not very good and that has a direct impact on a lot of working class people in the Province of Buenos Aires, which almost by default is a Peronist stronghold... and now it's gotten even bigger.

Still unclear what's going to happen. I do wish milei gets to purge her own sister from the party because of that corruption scandal lmfao, that would be absolute cinema. However, it is very likely that he'll do a minor purge, some "reshuffling" along internal lines and go back at it with full austerity until the general elections in 2027. Perhaps they'll put the entire economic model on overdrive to see if they can make it that far, but it'll end up crashing anyways, Macri did that to secure a win in the elections in the past and not only lost the electoral process but he also crashed the economy lmfao.

Meanwhile the Trots got around 5% of the votes, solid third place all things considered. Not a terrible result for a party that: Doesn't really care about electoralism, does politics in a heavily Peronist region, does politics without any kind of media support and campaign funds are acquired completely from internal backers, which is, their own militancy. They secured two seats.

Also, look at this loser lmao

Dresses like shit, looks like shit and probably smells like shit too. HOW MANY LAYERS OF CLOTHING DO YOU NEED? It wasn't even that cold last night lmao

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[–] detergent@hexbear.net 57 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (4 children)

Our friends in Palestine are really struggling right now, our comrade @mahmoud@hexbear.net tried to raise money to relocate his family to Southern Gaza and only got $60 in the last week.

They need a tent and as we know the conditions in North Gaza are really dire right now.

I've donated and I think we can really make a difference for our friends.

Please send help if you can:

https://gofund.me/5156f6e9

Mahmoud's post last week

My family is still in northern Gaza, I really need your help my friends, the costs of displacement to southern Gaza and buying a tent are very high, also there is a 40% rate for withdrawing money

The prices are very high and there is a lot of pressure on me, because I am the only one who supports my family through your donations to Gofundme. I hope you help me, my friends, in anything, because that will really help. Thank you, my friends.

https://gofund.me/5156f6e9

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[–] QuillcrestFalconer@hexbear.net 57 points 2 months ago

Last stage of La Vuelta was stopped because of pro Palestine protests

[–] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 57 points 2 months ago (1 children)

maybe his neck just did that

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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 57 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

https://archive.ph/PSQGt

company that's two layers deep into failing to deliver upgrades on time proposes even fancier and newer upgrades

Lockheed CEO says firm in ‘very active’ talks with DoD on ‘Ferrari’ F-35 with sixth-gen tech

more

Lockheed Martin is in “very active” conversations with the Pentagon about the concept of a fifth-generation-plus F-35 that would include some of the technologies the company has developed for its sixth-generation fighter concepts, Lockheed’s chief executive said today. “There’s a very active engagement at an extremely high level with the Department of Defense, and I expect it’ll be taken to the White House sometime soon, hopefully, to consider this kind of concept,” Jim Taiclet told investors at the Morgan Stanley conference. “We’ve gotten encouraging feedback. … There’s significant interest in the government about discussing aircraft modernization writ large, all the way up to the administration level, the White House level, and we’re in the middle of that with them, and we’re getting heard. We’re hearing back, and it’s pretty active.”

Taiclet first announced what he then called a “Ferrari” version of the F-35 in April, just weeks after Lockheed lost out on the Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) contract that went to Boeing’s F-47. At the time, he said that the company could take tech developed for NGAD and incorporate it on the F-35, giving the stealth jet “80 percent of six-gen capability at half the price.” The Lockheed CEO repeated that talking point today, though he noted that there is no contract inked for this souped-up version of the F-35. And, even if one is eventually signed, it may not be apparent to investors, he warned. “The way to contract this will probably not be visible to folks, because it will have so much classified content that it may not be disclosable, but I’m really quite confident that this concept has great merit,” he said. “We can provide value at that level, at that scale, by integrating sixth-generation technology, digital and physical, into our aircraft we’re already building.”

Of the about 2,300 F-35s yet to be delivered to the jet’s customer base, Taiclet estimated that anywhere from 1,000 to 1,500 aircraft could be delivered as the “fifth-gen plus” version, even if export restrictions prohibit international buyers from being able to purchase that configuration. Upgrades for those jets could include new weapons, an improved stealth coating and potentially a more advanced engine, he said. The White House, Defense Department and F-35 Joint Program Office did not respond to requests for comment by press time.

While no senior defense or F-35 JPO officials have commented publicly on Lockheed’s fifth-gen plus F-35 pitch, President Donald Trump in May shocked aviation geeks everywhere when he expressed interest in an upgraded, twin engine version of the F-35. “We’re going to do an F-55, and I think — if we get the right price, we have to get the right price — that’ll be two engines and a super upgrade on the F-35,” he said during a business roundtable in Doha. At the time, Lockheed thanked Trump for his support of the F-35 program and said it would “continue to work closely with the Administration to realize its vision for air dominance.” Neither Taiclet nor any Lockheed F-35 program official has ever referenced the F-55 in subsequent comments, and several aerospace experts told Breaking Defense that turning the F-35 into a twin engine strained credulity.

trump-anguish folks, you've heard of the F-35, great plane, amazing plane, but we're doing, we're doing now, the F-55, even better, even more plane - it used to be 35, now it's 55 - many people are saying it will the best plane in the history of planes

Meanwhile, the schedule for the F-35’s ongoing modernization effort, known as Block 4, continues to be beset with delays. The Defense Department now expects Block 4 modernization to be complete in 2031 — five years later than the original schedule — even as the scope of the upgrade effort is reduced to include fewer capabilities, according to a report by the Government Accountability Office released last week.

[–] thirstyskyline@hexbear.net 56 points 2 months ago (6 children)

In a brief press statement, Governor Cox reffered to the shooter's inscriptions engrained on casings found with the rifle, which read:

"Notices bulges OwO, what's this?" "Hey fascist! Catch!" "Oh bella ciao, bella ciao, bella ciao ciao ciao" "If you read this, you are gay LMAO."

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[–] SexMachineStalin@hexbear.net 56 points 2 months ago

Charlie KirKKK is confirmed fucking dead. RIP Bozo

crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party crab-party

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 55 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (7 children)

A thread with images of all the drone and missile debris found in Poland, Xcancel

Twitter source

Looks like Russian Gerbera drones/decoys, and the remains of AIM-120 air to air missiles that were used to shoot some of them down.

Big question is how did Gerbera drones get into Poland, range is too short to be launched from Russia (excluding Kaliningrad). Launched from Belarus possibly? Belarus is saying that these drones went off course due to electronic warfare, and that they also shot some down and informed Poland, in what sounds like a statement to cover themselves. Russia and Belarus are set to host a military exercise starting September 12th. Kaliningrad is also an option, one of these drones was found near Kaliningrad.

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[–] Wertheimer@hexbear.net 55 points 2 months ago (3 children)

U.K. Ambassador to U.S., Peter Mandelson, Fired Over Epstein Links

The government singled out an email from Mr. Mandelson to Mr. Epstein in 2008, in which Mr. Mandelson lamented Mr. Epstein’s conviction for soliciting sex from a minor and gave him advice about his legal troubles.

“I think the world of you and I feel hopeless and furious about what has happened,” Mr. Mandelson wrote in an email obtained by Bloomberg News. “I can still barely understand it. It just could not happen in Britain.”

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[–] JohnBrownsBussy2@hexbear.net 55 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (3 children)

Was incredibly scared that the shooter would be trans or otherwise visibly queer, so I am pretty relieved that the alleged shooter is a an old white guy.

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 55 points 2 months ago (7 children)

Supreme Court Overturns Decision Blocking Deportation of 500,000 Migrants

The Supreme Court ruled on Friday that the Trump administration can begin to deport around half a million immigrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela.

Today's decision lifts a ruling from a district judge who blocked the administration from canceling the "humanitarian parole" programs, which began under the Biden administration.

The immigrants who entered the U.S. under the program will now lose their permits to work and are at immediate risk of deportation.

Democrat-appointed Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Ketanji Brown Jackson dissented.

https://www.newsweek.com/supreme-court-donald-trump-immigrants-deportation-migrants-venezuela-2129231

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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 55 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (4 children)

https://xcancel.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1967278583526957515

An Eruption of Assassinations

Peter Turchin’s USPVDB shows America’s current assassination rate has exceeded the 1960s peak and is approaching Civil War levels. From 2020–2024, seven assassinations occurred,including attacks on politicians and public figures, reflecting deepening instability. Turchin argues assassinations and terrorism are “canaries in the coal mine,” warning of structural breakdown: immiseration of ordinary people, overproduction of frustrated elites, and widening inequality. These conditions drive both lone assassins and organized radicals, signaling that the U.S. system remains dangerously unstable.

from the actual article: https://archive.ph/1N86W

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In this blog I usually don’t comment on events as they occur, because my focus is not on individual occurrences, but on broader societal trends. Also, our understanding of a particular event often changes as more information becomes available. The chaotic reporting on the assassination of Charlie Kirk over the past several days (and retractions) is a good example of this. But, actually, I was planning to write about the recent increase in the frequency of assassinations, as well as their broader social context anyway, so it is a coincidence that this post comes out in the wake of this tragedy. According to my US Political Violence Database (USPVDB), the five years from 2020 to 2024 saw seven assassinations. This is higher than the previous peak during the 1960s, although only half as large as that of the late 1860s:

This count includes an assassination attempt against Donald Trump, the assassination of Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband, the shooting of State Senator John Hoffman and his wife, Luigi Mangione killing Brian Thompson, and a few lesser-known others, but not the assassination of Charlie Kirk (which will be part of the count during the next 5 year period). At the same time, we are experiencing a huge outbreak of terrorism, most of which takes the form of indiscriminate mass shootings. The Database classifies a political violence event as terrorism when the intent is to attack a social group or the society as a whole, while assassination is an attack against a particular representative of such a group, often its leader or another prominent member. The reason my research group devotes a lot of effort to gathering data on political violence events, which include assassinations, terrorism, violent urban riots, rural insurrections and so on up to all-out civil wars, is that this allows us to quantify how the intensity of political violence changes over time. And that, in turn, gives us a way to empirically test the predictions of the structural-demographic theory, whose goal is to understand what factors drive political instability up or down. You can read more about this project in my 2012 article, Dynamics of political instability in the United States, 1780–2010 (and recently we’ve been updating the data through 2024).

Constructing such data requires some judgment calls. For example, there is no sharp boundary between assassinations and terrorism. Consider the case of Wesley LePatner, a senior executive at Blackstone Inc., who was killed in a mass shooting event on July 28, 2025 at the firm's headquarters in Manhattan. According to police and public officials, the shooter in the NYC building where Wesley LePatner was killed appears to have been targeting the NFL offices, but then took the wrong elevator, ending up on a different floor. Yet, it is a curious coincidence that Blackstone is one of broadly detested corporations, and its executives have been accused by leftist groups for its “greed-driven agenda” that fueled housing affordability crisis (see, for example, Housing Is A Human Right Exposes Billionaire Landlord Stephen Schwarzman). In USPVDB we classify this incident as “terrorism,” but if the shooter specifically wanted to kill a Blackstone executive, it would be an assassination. In any case, from the point of view of the structural-demographic theory, cleanly distinguishing between assassinations and shooting rampages is unimportant, because the root cause for both kinds of political instability events is the same.

there's some description of Turchin's theories of elite-overproduction here which seem maybe kind of crank-adjacent and I'm skipping, but there was this interesting bit about Lenin's brother which I didn't know:

A great example of the close relationship between terrorists and revolutionaries is the brief career of Alexander Ulyanov, a lesser known brother of Vladimir Lenin. He was executed in 1887 for an attempted assassination of the Russian Tsar, Alexander III. There is a famous Soviet-era painting, which depicts young Lenin (at that point, still Ulyanov) with his mother on the day of execution, titled “We Will Choose Another Way.”

y'know, I feel like I've genuinely never seen a non-balding depiction of Lenin before this point, I can barely recognize the guy lenin-sure

Returning to the here and now, few people are motivated enough to sacrifice themselves in this way, but there is a larger group that support and cheer them. According to one poll, taken in December of 2024, 10% of responders viewed Mangione as a "hero" (Only 10% Consider Man Who Murdered United Healthcare CEO a Hero"). This is much smaller than the 53% who viewed him as “villain”, but still­, one in ten Americans support and cheer a cold-blooded murderer? Interestingly, support for this assassination was particularly high among the overproduced degree-holders: “Among voters with a postgraduate degree, 15% consider the killer a hero. Only 8% of those with a Bachelors' degree share that view along with 9% of those without a college degree.”

tony-cheer IN THIS HOUSE LUIGI IS A HERO, END OF STORY

It's important to note, that by themselves political assassination and terrorism don’t overthrow the established elites (at least, I can’t think of any examples). An assassination of the state ruler may serve as a triggering event for a revolution or an onset of civil war, but it still requires a well-organized and committed counter-elite party. The failure of Alexander Ulyanov and ultimate success of his younger brother illustrate this principle perfectly.

The significance in the rising frequency of such instability “micro-events” is that they signal that something is deeply broken within the social system in which they happen. I tried to draw attention to the rising frequency of shooting rampages back in 2008 (you can read about it in my 2012 blog post, Canaries in a Coal Mine). A canary dropping dead in a miner’s cage is not the cause of the explosion to come, but rather an advance warning. Similarly, the increasing incidence of assassinations and terrorism tells us that we aren’t out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.

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[–] ClathrateG@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago
[–] Lisitsyn@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago (18 children)

Estonian youtuber and first in polls for the mayorship of the country's second largest city threatens to "put the "sots" (socialdemocrats) up against a wall and shoot them with a pump shotgun". The dude is a YouTuber/streamer, he has also said that he wants to get the blacks out when asked what he's candidating for.

He's doing this not for the (semi) well-known abroad EKRE (nazi party) but for the other and first in polls Fatherland, or isamaa in Estonian.

Isamaa has made a marked shift to the right and has open neo Nazis candidating for them in local elections, here's a photo of one of them, Ruben Kaalep together with Le pen flashing the white power symbol:

Remember, Isamaa is the nominally "centre-right to right-wing" party according to Wikipedia NOT the openly Neo-Nazi EKRE. Now imagine what EKRE advocates for...

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (21 children)

With the events since the Trump assassination attempts and now this last few days (Charlie Kirk assasination and the Ukrainian refugee in the United States being murdered in cold blood on the train, honestly the Ukrainian woman getting murdered on the train was one of the worst videos I've ever seen), I think that the overton window is going to shift so far to the right that Trump will be considered a moderate. There's no going back.

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[–] HarryLime@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago

Turkish police seize opposition HQ in Istanbul:

Riot police stormed the Istanbul headquarters of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) on 8 September, forcing entry after hours of clashes to escort court-appointed interim chief Gursel Tekin inside.

The Istanbul 45th Civil Court of First Instance had dismissed provincial head Ozgur Celik last week, ruling that delegate votes in the party’s 2023 provincial congress were influenced by alleged bribery.

The court threw out the elected board and named former CHP deputy chair Tekin as interim provincial head, a decision rejected by both Celik and CHP headquarters.

Tekin, who earlier said he would not enter the headquarters with police, requested riot police support after both the CHP headquarters and Celik rejected his appointment.

He arrived to find the building barricaded and occupied by party members, including MPs.

Riot police used pepper spray and shields to disperse demonstrators, with CHP member Suat Ozcagdas telling Halk TV that officers fired tear gas “inch by inch” as they moved floor by floor inside the building.

“There are elderly people and people with asthma. On every floor they enter with gas. This is a human rights violation,” he said.

Protests began on Sunday, when the CHP called on Istanbul residents to gather outside its offices after police cordoned off the site.

Earlier on Monday, several political influencers who had voiced support for the protests were detained.

Internet watchdogs reported bandwidth throttling that slowed access to social media platforms.

The CHP denounced the takeover as a “siege.”

In a separate interview with the Financial Times (FT), party leader Ozgur Ozel accused the government of staging “a coup against the future ruling party.”

“They are trying to take over the party that won the last election, was the founding party of the Turkish republic, is the party leading every poll … We’re facing an authoritarian government and … the only option is to resist,” he said.

In Istanbul, Tekin claimed those resisting him “were not CHP members.”

“Nothing can stop us, even if they shoot us,” he said, insisting he would not back down, after a water bottle was thrown at him as he attempted a press statement.

The party’s general headquarters later announced it would close its provincial branch headquarters and operate from another location until a new Istanbul congress is held.

The Istanbul decision has drawn attention to a separate lawsuit in Ankara, scheduled for 15 September, which could annul the results of the CHP’s 38th Ordinary Congress in 2023 and unseat Ozel.

Since October 2024, more than 500 CHP members and officials have been detained nationwide, according to state disclosures reviewed by Reuters in July.

The arrests have included Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main rival, and 16 CHP mayors accused of corruption. CHP figures have described the campaign as a political operation to dismantle the party after its victories in last year’s local elections.

[–] seaposting@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago (2 children)

There was this trending infographic on social media showcasing attempted color revolutions and general social instabilities of neighbouring countries surrounding China.

The notable countries that have not yet fallen into this being Mongolia, Laos, Vietnam and Malaysia.

I can’t comment much on the rest but let’s take a quick look at some statistics for Malaysia to see if the country has potential.

Unemployment rate: 3.0% (About a decade low)

Youth unemployment: 10.2%

2025 1H GDP Growth: 4.4%

Headline Inflation: Jul 2025, 1.2%, monthly YoY peak at 1.7% for 2025

And apparently >70% of the assets related to the infamous 1MDB corruption scandal has been recovered.

And of course: Nepal, US turmoil a reminder for Malaysia, says Anwar

Anwar reminded Malaysians that unity is the foundation of a nation’s peace which, in turn, drives economic development and the overall wellbeing of its citizens, Utusan Malaysia reported.

“Compared to many other countries, we are far better off,” he said.

“For example, in Nepal, there are riots everywhere … a minister was stripped, and his wife burned to death.

“Just two days ago, there was a shooting involving a leader at a university in the US.

“So let us pray that we can continue to preserve peace and unity,” he said when officiating an event in Iskandar Puteri, Johor, today.

… Don’t let development erode what truly matters,” he said.

“We may build malls and industries and record high profits, but if we ignore issues like income, housing, welfare and education, we destroy our values and morals in the process.”

Had to avoid commenting on Indonesia because of diplomacy it seems.

“Other countries are worse and so we should just be glad”. A classic.

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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (17 children)
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[–] RomCom1989@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (5 children)

America is bubbling and boiling over

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 53 points 2 months ago (2 children)

The majority of ministers in the First Panel of the Supreme Court decide to sentence former President Jair Bolsonaro to prison for attempting a coup d'état, leading a criminal organization, attempting to violently abolish the democratic rule of law, and other crimes.

  • Telegram
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[–] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 53 points 2 months ago (7 children)

What was the point of flying through Polish airspace?

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