The scary thing is you just need to simulate a single brain (yours or mine). Everything else is just loaded on the fly. Like in a game. That's hard but probably not impossible. As soon as we are technically able to do something like this, chances are high that we, or I, live in a simulation.
this post was submitted on 05 Sep 2025
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My favorite part of these types of discussions is the human brain trying its best to rationalize something it can not understand with a human understanding. If this is a simulation you can't reach beyond you station. You are limited, held back by rules and laws yet you feel special or that you have an inkling about anything all because you're programmed with ego and a sense of individualism.
I have no idea of the odds. Whatever reality is we could simulate it then conclude that a simulation like that could be running out reality. What could we observe about our reality that would make it simulation proof?
If it is possible to stimulate reality to this level of detail, very low. If it's possible that the simulation can then run another instance of the simulation with no loss of fidelity and that is true for any simulation within the stack, still low but much more likely than before. If the chance of this simulation existing is higher than the odds for a universe that can sustain intelligent life, then it becomes about even odds.
The people who claim otherwise are mathematicians who forgot how reality works, as they get into an infinite spiral of higher and higher odds without any basis in reality.
The reason why it gets to even-at-best is because the simulation needs to exist in a reality at some point, and it really, really stretches the imagination that someone could build this shit. So, then you're attaching the odds of intelligent life in a universe to the odds of then some intelligent life understanding literally every aspect of reality and being able to build said simulation (and then that repeats on every simulation).
0 %
Either 100% or 0% so pascal's wager 50/50.
Just like the lottery, I either win or I lose, its a 50/50.
And the whole thing is "does it matter?". To us, no, it doesn't matter at all.
So I guess it depends on what you understand by "simulation". What is really simulated as opossed to being "real". Our reality is just an interpretation given by our senses, so in a sense it's also a simulation of the real thing. Where's the line that makes something really "real"?
You mean that reality might have been created by intelligent being(s)? wow.. Nobody ever thought about that one before.
Less than the odds that we are living in a false vacuum.
On the one hand. Why. Oh why. Would anyone make the simulation so crappy. On the other hand if there was a creator god that exists outside the universe then we 100% would be a simulation compared to that gods existence.
We have a physical representation of a divide by 0 function that exists in the universe. Black holes. I'd say it's fairly likely.
99.999999999999999999999999999%
(Rounded)
Measured subjectively, the chance that I am in a simulation is higher than that anyone else is, since in that case some or all of you might be merely simulated.
100%