this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2025
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Image is of the damage caused by an Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile in Israel, causing dozens of injuries.


Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.

A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?

And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 52 points 4 months ago (2 children)

The White House has released a video of Trump's visit to the NATO summit in The Hague accompanied by the song Hey Daddy. The footage is accompanied by the caption "Daddy's home" - "daddy is back" or "daddy is home".

Let us recall that at the summit, Secretary General Rutte called Trump "daddy". Although he later stated that he was misunderstood. "I didn't call him 'daddy'. I just said that sometimes in Europe I hear some countries asking: 'Hey Mark, will the US stay with us?' And I said that it sounds a bit like a little kid asking his daddy: 'Hey, are you still staying with your family?' So in that sense I used the word 'daddy' - not that I called President Trump daddy," Rutte said.

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[–] QuillcrestFalconer@hexbear.net 52 points 4 months ago (2 children)

I love how trump uses the N word to refer to nuclear lmao

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[–] LargePenis@hexbear.net 52 points 4 months ago (3 children)

If, and that's a humongous IF, if Trump is really right about this ceasefire thing, then I'll bury myself in a bunker somewhere in Albania and commit the rest of my life to touching grass and smoking grass, because there's really no rational actor on my beloved Axis of Resistance after Soleimani and Nasrallah.

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[–] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 51 points 4 months ago (2 children)
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[–] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 51 points 4 months ago (2 children)
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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 51 points 4 months ago

European Workers Warn Against Cutting Social Spending for Defense Increases - Telesur English

Article

Governments must ensure that the wealthiest pay their fair share of taxes, the ETUC pointed out. On Wednesday, the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) warned that social budgets should not be affected by European leaders’ plans to increase defense spending, which are under discussion at the NATO summit.

The ETUC said social spending must be protected, while also voicing support for “coordinated and enhanced security policies that ensure Europe contributes to securing peace, the rule of law, human rights, and social progress at the international level.”

“EU funds originally intended for cohesion and recovery programs have already been redirected toward the defense sector,” the European unions said.

The announcement came during this week’s NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, where European leaders are discussing ways to raise defense and security spending to 5% of member states’ GDP. Most currently allocate between 1% and 2%.

Governments “must avoid increasing the financial burden on workers” and “ensure that the wealthiest pay their fair share of taxes,” the European unions pointed out.

ETUC Secretary General Esther Lynch said the lack of investment in public services will leave Europe unprepared for the challenges it faces.

“The EU must stop draining already insufficient social funds, and governments must not make workers, retirees, or people with disabilities pay the price for unrealistic targets they have set,” she said, calling for safeguards to ensure that the rise in public defense spending does not “simply enrich shareholders and CEOs of weapons manufacturers.”

“Funding must be tied to social conditions that guarantee workers in the sector are covered by collective agreements ensuring fair wages, working conditions, and training,” Lynch concluded.

[–] daniyeg@hexbear.net 51 points 4 months ago (1 children)

they were talking about regime change yesterday day i ain't buying the "it's time for peace thing".

im not a geopolitical analyst (thank god) but imo there's two possibilities:

  1. they're gonna keep violating the ceasefire and when iran responds trump can justify a full scale invasion to his base on the account of "they took away muh nobel peace prize".

  2. the more likely scenario, it's there to buy time for another surprise attack like the first day/launching a civil war. im not saying israel was in a worse position than iran, but the fact is that they were running out of interceptors. they believe (and unfortunately im inclined to believe as well) that they have done enough damage to iran's missile program to stop us from replenishing our missile stockpile, while they fill up their interceptors, re-establish bases and contacts inside iran and gather intel for another attack or even attempt an uprising.

there's already reports of light weapons being smuggled into iran and there's ongoing talks with shah's failson. climate change ain't making the weather any cooler and there's an eerie sense of anger hanging in the air. the last large scale protest was 3 years ago and looks like we have those every couple of years now.

islamic republic has failed to establish deterrence and now the only path forward is to both change domestic policy and root out corruption to appease the populace, and to get a nuclear weapon to establish real deterrence. and I'm sad to say but seeing our geriatric and libbed out leadership (with a huge portion of them being outright assets) i don't have high hopes. i hope im wrong but it looks like iran is on the path to become the next libya.

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 51 points 4 months ago (4 children)

Dem Fascist (Senator Kirsten Gillibrand) meltdown over Zohran;

https://x.com/barbarismcrit/status/1938309709842550831

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[–] sexywheat@hexbear.net 50 points 4 months ago

Israel has closed its airspace until further notice.

-Telegram (DDGeopolitics)

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 50 points 4 months ago (15 children)

IAEA chief Grossi gave an interview on French radio today, link here. What I find most interesting is this statement:

Yes, and the knowledge we have of the facilities and capabilities, for example. I'll give you an example: Fordow, the major underground facility that everyone's talking about. It's almost like a movie script. We've seen the images of the perforations from these high-penetration bombs. Obviously, we can't assess the degree of damage. But given the power of these devices and the technical characteristics of a centrifuge, we already know that these centrifuges are no longer operational, because they are fairly precise machines: there are rotors, the vibrations have completely destroyed them. There couldn't have been any nonsense about significant physical damage. So, we can draw a fairly precise technical conclusion. I know the Fordo facility. It's a network of tunnels where different types of activities took place. I can also tell you that what we saw in the images and analyzed more or less corresponds to the enrichment hall.

So that's all the centrifuges at both Fordow and Natanz gone according to the IAEA. Over 15 000 of them were in active operation, 13 000 at Natanz and 2000 at Fordow, with Fordow being especially costly as the advanced IR-6 centrifuges were located there. So the blast pressure and overpressure through the ventilation shafts directly into the enrichment halls destroyed the centrifuges, according to Grossi. Also pretty clear why Iran no longer want to co operate with the IAEA.

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[–] sewer_rat_420@hexbear.net 50 points 4 months ago (20 children)

I have a question regarding the wests ultimate goals in Iran and how they don't really make much sense in regards to regional and worldwide safety from nuclear threats.

Let's say that Iran hadn't evacuated their 60% enriched stockpile from Fordow, and these strikes were a complete success. There is now half a ton of enriched uranium buried at the site.

And let's also say that a successful decapitation strike occurs. Iran is thrown into civil war with many factions. Some have extreme ideologies, maybe more extreme than the regime ever was.

Now obviously this would not result in a nuclear weapon, assuming the country is fractured and unstable. But whoever ends up controlling the fordow site now just needs to do a bit of excavation and we are looking at material to make dozens of dirty bombs, potentially falling into the hands of a group as extreme as ISIS. How is burying half a ton of nuclear material and destabilizing the country at all going to lead to safety for the world?

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[–] Quaxamilliom@hexbear.net 50 points 4 months ago

Juan Shaihdo has just declared himself interim president of Iran

[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 50 points 4 months ago
[–] peripateticpeasant@hexbear.net 50 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Having lived in Qatar and knowing many people there, kind of insane to see first hand accounts and videos of the missiles.

Mashallah. I support the Islamic Republic against the US and Zionist imperialists.

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 50 points 4 months ago (4 children)

Looks like Israel have responded by launching a symbolic airstrike targeting a radar in Tehran.

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[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 50 points 4 months ago (2 children)

🚨🇮🇱 Channel 12: Israel Braces for Major Iranian Response Tonight — Home Front Command Maintains High Alert ⚠️🛡️

https://bsky.app/profile/fintwitter.bsky.social/post/3lscakoacv22q

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[–] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 49 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

Does anyone here know the Iranian born western academic Vali Nasr? He wrote "The Shia Revival" a while back and also a book titled "The Rise of Islamic Capitalism: Why the New Muslim Middle Class Is the Key to Defeating Extremism" (just so you know where he stands).

Anyway he put out a book written right before the Assad government fell called "Iran's Grand Strategy: A Political History", it's what it says on the tin. I think for anyone confused about why the fuck Iran does what it does and what its leaders think, usually in their own terms and not the author's, this is a good read.

But before reading just listen to that episode of citations-needed about the terms "proxy" and "backed" because the author views Iran's "Forward Defense" strategy of supporting these organizations as reprehensible, while no doubt he would not say the same about whatever NGOs the US literally funds. Despite that, it's not too axe-grindish a read I think he did a good job of relaying what the hardliners and reformists believe and why, and any sensible reader will read this and note how in plenty of matters the hardliners are correct.

There's lots of good stuff about Khamenei too, like how he was influenced by new left theories of anti-imperialism and dependency theory. Also explains why Iran for a long time (and even until today) is very reluctant to join a Russia-China axis (the iranian foreign minister literally has "neither east nor west" on its entrance)

At the end he puts out a warning to the regime that basically there's a chasm forming between its commitment to its strategies for resisting the united states as a means of becoming a regional power and the wishes of many iranians to adopt a more """""pragmatic""""" approach (like nuclear negotiations). This was obviously all before the recent missile lobbing war so I hope that chasm as been reduced in favor of the regime.

It's on the audiobook torrent site too

EDIT: Found the guy's twitter and he seems to understand that Iran is not just going to return to the negotiating table after one happens, and it may have only hardened Khamenei's already incredibly hard will to resist the US

[–] la_tasalana_intissari_mata@hexbear.net 49 points 4 months ago (1 children)
[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 49 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Fire erupts at the World Heart Hotel in the Iraqi city of Baghdad.

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Russian forces liberated eight more settlements over the past week (Novaya Kruglyakovka and Petrovskoye in Kharkov oblast; and Dyleyevka, Novosergeyevka, Zaporozhye, Perebudova, Shevchenko and Yalta in the Donetsk People’s Republic): https://tass.com/politics/1982135

SouthFront has another big collection of recent Russian combat footage: https://southfront.press/summary-of-russian-combat-footage-from-june-27-2025/

A Russian missile strike destroyed a Kiev regime ammunition depot (video): https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/06/27/1474304.html

[–] HarryLime@hexbear.net 49 points 4 months ago
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