I will never again make or believe a prediction about the duration of a war
this post was submitted on 23 May 2025
83 points (96.6% liked)
news
24050 readers
766 users here now
Welcome to c/news! Please read the Hexbear Code of Conduct and remember... we're all comrades here.
Rules:
-- PLEASE KEEP POST TITLES INFORMATIVE --
-- Overly editorialized titles, particularly if they link to opinion pieces, may get your post removed. --
-- All posts must include a link to their source. Screenshots are fine IF you include the link in the post body. --
-- If you are citing a twitter post as news please include not just the twitter.com in your links but also nitter.net (or another Nitter instance). There is also a Firefox extension that can redirect Twitter links to a Nitter instance: https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/libredirect/ or archive them as you would any other reactionary source using e.g. https://archive.today/ . Twitter screenshots still need to be sourced or they will be removed --
-- Mass tagging comm moderators across multiple posts like a broken markov chain bot will result in a comm ban--
-- Repeated consecutive posting of reactionary sources, fake news, misleading / outdated news, false alarms over ghoul deaths, and/or shitposts will result in a comm ban.--
-- Neglecting to use content warnings or NSFW when dealing with disturbing content will be removed until in compliance. Users who are consecutively reported due to failing to use content warnings or NSFW tags when commenting on or posting disturbing content will result in the user being banned. --
-- Using April 1st as an excuse to post fake headlines, like the resurrection of Kissinger while he is still fortunately dead, will result in the poster being thrown in the gamer gulag and be sentenced to play and beat trashy mobile games like 'Raid: Shadow Legends' in order to be rehabilitated back into general society. --
founded 4 years ago
MODERATORS
Predictions like this are always tricky, but it's interesting to see how different the assessment of the situation is here compared to the propaganda in the mainstream media. These reports are far more rooted in material reality because people make financial decisions based on them.
My prediction: it'll last until it's over, but I could be wrong
Eurocrats will just ignore the minor detail that it ended and won't change course nor rhetorics.
Yeah, I hear this one at work all the time. Sure thing boss. 
Damn so us involvement actually caused russia to win more than if they just accepted crimea as part of russia?
That's not true. The war enabled the US to cannibalise Europe and put them on a very short leash for the foreseeable future. I'm not sure the four oblasts are nearly as valuable to Russia, even if they had not been absolutely wrecked by 11 years of war (so far).
On the other hand, the US has also cannibalized the economies of their strongest vassals in such a way that a pink wave is liable to break out at some point.
while it is nevertheless relevant as a major publication by a western bank, this is such a stupid and ill-informed report. july 2025 is 2 months away and there is absolutely no way a peace treaty is signed by then. negotiations literally haven't even started. anyone who believes otherwise should have a look at this article on the nuts and bolts of diplomacy in the current context.
further, this is entirely unfounded and does not reflect russian troop/materiel replenishment. the comment about 118 years is just accountant map brained bullshit
Putin’s losses are also far from sustainable. At its current rate of gain, Russia will control all of Ukraine in about…118 years
unbelievably poor analysis
Russia will control all of Ukraine in about... 118 years
Do they believe their own bullshit? Because imagine only ever predicting shit with a straight line, where everything is linear, quantitive change is steady and predictable and qualities never evolve. There is no nonlinearity, there is no potential for collapse, chaos, or punctuated equilibrium. The small changes you see today will continue as they are for centuries.
I know it's nerd talk to discuss dialectics, or complexity, but it's mind boggling how undialectical these serious people are. Part of me thinks it just cope on their part to make their masters happy because how could one make that prediction without smelling your own bs and knowing its a completely meaningless number. But banks and think tanks do select for the smoothest of minds.
For all people like to compare it to WWI, they don't ever seem to think that it's probably going to end like it where one side eventually has its ability to maintain the front destroyed and then starts losing massive amounts of territory very quickly.
At the rate the western front was going it would have taken hundreds of years to get all of Germany, but that's not how wars of attrition work.
Putin’s losses are also far from sustainable. At its current rate of gain, Russia will control all of Ukraine in about…118 years
We are living in an early Soviet cartoon where the largest capitalist institutions have to reject basic laws of the universe like quantity → quality because they are Bolshevist propaganda. Terrible.
I agree there is a lot of stupid in the report, but there doesn't need to be a peace treaty signed for the war to end. It's not unthinkable that the US could walk away within two months if they decide that there's no path forward, or the AFU could start to visibly collapse. In either case, the war would be effectively over. It's obviously going to take more time for the hostilities to end and diplomacy to happen, but effectively the war would be over at that point.
if you count scenarios where hostilities are ongoing as the war being over, the war is already over and has been since 2023. there's no outcome from here on out where ukraine isn't a failed state for at least the next generation, no matter what other territory changes hands or how many people die
I don't think there was any outcome where Ukraine could win from the start of the war, but what I'm talking about is the narrative collapse in the west. Right now we're still getting articles like this gem arguing that Ukraine is winning actually, and there is still popular belief in the west that the war can be won.
Because war is always linear, right?
Yeah this gives off the energy of a propaganda post to scare all of the capitalists and capitalist bootlickers about the conflict
The only way this happens in this timeline is if there is an extremely rapid pro Russian coup of Ukraine. And even then it would have to be like this weekend
Well well it's a Banker's war after all
he'll be in a small aircraft by september
funniest outcome would be zelensky fleeing to russia
He will live in a villa mansion outside Kracov running a shadow government until the EU decides they want good relations with Russia again, which is when he will have a heart attack.
Its going to be so tough to talk to liberals about this. They all have this hagiographic view of Zelesnky
AKSHUALLY ukrainians killed a billion russians because smol bean ~~finnish~~ sniper of kiev
Best case - "South Korea"
Still ok - "Israel"
Not great - "Georgia"
Worst case - "Belarus"
Hmm
Best case = best case for the us
The financiers have lost interest in this war, so it's time for it to end
Next up AUKUS!
NATO's Adventures: Endgame (2025)
It’s like the god dang avengers
I don't see Russia stopping until they drain Ukraine to breaking point and prove their point by exploiting it a little.