askchapo

I somewhat agree with a lot of people who are pointing out that there probably won't be a significant increase in deportations or Tariffs due to American capitalism reliance on undocumented labor and the potential devastating economic impact.

I worry though that we vastly underestimate how ideologically driven this party is. A lot of us didn't think they'd actually go the full distance of overturning roe v wade either because it was a bridge too far...and now look at where we are. A lot of people underestimated the Nazi's commitment also. It might be pragmatic at this point to assume they actually mean it.

"Well done, President 47. Now head to the extraction point."

Short-term, the MAGA kool-aid drinkers will just blame China or DEI or whatever. The average citizen is gonna feel the pain and blame Trump, but my guess is, Democrats are going to acquiesce too much to civility politics and compromise so they won’t look like an actual opposition party so those citizens will just stay home in 2026. The pundits will predict a blue wave in the mid-terms but it’ll just be a narrow victory in the House, split to narrow Republican advantage in the Senate.

Long term, the last 40 or so years of the U.S. economy have been in this “equilibrium of inequilibrium” cycle. Big bubbles, big crashes, but never slow and steady, nor prolonged golden age, nor complete collapse. So there’s this question if the next crisis will be more of the same, or if it will mark a significant collapse/re-ordering of the global economic order. There’s been a lot of indicators out of China that they’re on the cusp of real technological innovations, especially with regards to climate change mitigation, whereas in the West “innovation” has become a fig leaf for slop like crypto and AI that just re-packages old ideas. So if the next bubble burst coincides with a Chinese technological leap that leaves all but the very richest Americans out, it could shatter that American sense of economical exceptionalism (already happening to an extent on xhs). National sense of self combined with an economic collapse is a recipe for weeks were decades happen.

Anybody who hasn't read The Grapes of Wrath yet, you really should. Number of unhoused folks in the US are probably going to reach a new level in the coming years, if they're not already.

History isn't predetermined, but I've been reading about the history of fascism and I imagine it will be somewhat similar to what happened in Germany in the 1930s.

We'll see more inflation, workers rights repealed, the proletarianization of the "middle class" especially those not unionized. Government will probably intervene when some companies start collapsing, but it will never nationalize these companies ensuring that the profits are always private. There will also be need of a scapegoat for all these crises so lots of violence against the poor and minorities unfortunately

Never say never, but I do not think there will be a significant increase in deportations. Undocumented labor is critical to the functioning of American capitalism. Significantly cutting the number of undocumented workers would be a major blow to capital. So that’s not gonna happen. The hogs want their deportations but they’re not in charge here.

The point of all of Trump’s talk is to instill fear in immigrants. Fear that if you do anything out of line, you will get deported. Fear ensures that you don’t do things like demand better conditions. Fear means you will want to hide your presence even more, which will keep your wages and social costs low.

Undocumented workers are truly the reserve army of labor in the modern US. You can pull out your of copy of volume 1 of Capital to understand how important it is for capital to have that reserve army of labor, but also to keep it hungry and afraid. That keeps down wages (as well as helps ramp down resistance) for everyone.

As far tariffs go, Trump is a moron. I’m sure his strategy is just use it as a cudgel to get better trading terms but I think he genuinely believes tariffs are just free money for the US. Now if the rest of the world actually got their shit together and refused to play ball, yeah the tariffs would probably completely tank the US economy. But sadly I’m pretty sure every single country is gonna fall in line. Especially the EU, they will impose brutal austerity packages just to hit that 5% military spending target.

He doesn't have to. It's going to crash on its own. Look at auto loan default rates. That's the last thing people want to default on cause no job. Ships going down folks prepare for another subprime loan crisis

I think the most pressing danger is not so much Trump's policies being taken to the extreme end of triggering economic collapse. Rather that issues such as inflation become structural and due to a combination of short termism (people are trying to survive, not make excel sheets) and turbulent political speech every administration is blamed for things which they are all collectivelly doing, enabling or ignoring. Trump's inflation is followed by Biden's inflation followed by Trump's inflation and then, I dunno, Newsom's inflation. The musical chairs ensuring that no planning is done and there's no way out of the mess except a default positive opinion on austerity politics.

Get in loser. We are crashing the economy

two words: prison labor

Basically see what the first edition of Nazis did and caused then 1-1 it to the modern day. Also more fascists appropriating red baiting, its an old trope, already happening, but it's going to go into full play, the capitalists pretending they are anti-capitalist.

Inflation will go 1 bitcoin for a Big Mac tier, but that's still in the fully collapsed economy point. Certain debts might be frozen for a time, obviously not student loans. I suspect the return of debtors prisons and similar setups. Also forced employment, just because you work doesn't mean it will be even at minimum wage.

I expect more privatization of everything and a very poor attempt at reindustrialization using old shut down factories and prison slaves/heavily abused and deprived/indebted labor with harrowing accidents harkening back to the 19th century. Once we get into a big enough war maybe there'll be attempts to train said workers and slaves somewhat. I also expect something similar in agriculture but exclusively using prison slavery and there'll never be training nor relief there outside of the hands of the oppressed. There will be a lot of food shortages because of this being willfully inefficient and people will be gaslit about it or scapegoat Canada and trans people or someshit.

More attempts to use fuel sources the US has to trade as bargaining chips/economic baton as dollar diplomacy fades.

Yet another big war eventually, especially since how lucrative the arms industry is. Some industries are going to greatly benefit from the economic-political changes, others not so much, so I expect infighting. Those tariffs alone imho mean more war is greatly desired.

Normies will double down and just blame whoever the gop tells them to.

It'll be terrible for the whole world which will have to adjust quickly to the collapse of the US Economy.

Many developing countries run large trade/current surplus with the US, even if Trump doesn't place tarrifs on these countries, the decrease in demand in the US from economic collapse alone would compress their imports from China and Oil Exporting Countries.

Even short term look at how Trump merely mentioning tarrifs even before he became president resulted in capital outflows from global south countries.

If the adage is right that Americans are three missed meals away from a riot, then you can take a guess.

It will accelerate capitalist crisis in the whole world and America will have significantly weaker ability to do counterrevolutionary interventions.

I think if trump tries to do anything too crazy some more competent members of the deep state will pull him aside, show him the piss tape and tell him to go golf at Mara-Lago.

What will happen to Trump, the US or the world? Trump, I believe, will get all the blame, probably be impeached (only if he messes around too much with the American Elite and really breaks the country) and jailed (again) to “teach him a lesson”, then retire and spend the rest of his years (probably 2 years) living in Florida or somewhere like Argentina. The US will go into a huge decline and will probably lose all its colonies (Puerto Rico, Guam, Virgin Islands, Guantanamo, etc...) and military bases, I don't think it will break up into different states, but I can see Hawaii seeking independence if things get really bad, there will also be a lot of far-right terrorist attacks, but I can also see the unions gaining some power in the US. China will take over from the US as the world's superpower, which will be an improvement. I think life for those living in the Global North will be difficult for a few years, but things will probably stabilize.

Not sure, probably a lot of bad things. It probably won't be good for me or many people around the world, but at least it will be a show, seeing the collapse of the Burgerreich from a distance.

I don't think he can, at least in the very short term. He's negotiating with Xi to see about the 25% tariffs so I expect at least some preferential treatment to China, which is the only country that isn't just gonna sit down and take the hit quietly. He will probably cause an inflationary crisis of a similar or worse magnitude to the one we had in the first couple years of COVID, but ultimately I think they're mostly accelerating the collapse in a quantitative way that's not immediately gonna lead to (more) cities burning down or the whole world economy crashing.

Only a matter of time before funny like goes big down and the economy follows quickly behind it

Kamala becomes president in 2028

Depends on wether or not the owners are satisfied.

If yes, nothing happens. If not, impeachment followed by failed coup attempt.

Decades will start happening, and we'll enter a new era

Prob full fascism