In return for Mr Zelensky embracing this grim truth, Western leaders need to make his overriding war aim credible by ensuring that Ukraine has the military capacity and security guarantees it needs. If Ukraine can convincingly deny Russia any prospect of advancing further on the battlefield, it will be able to demonstrate the futility of further big offensives. Whether or not a formal peace deal is signed, that is the only way to wind down the fighting and ensure the security on which Ukraine’s prosperity and democracy will ultimately rest.

This will require greater supplies of the weaponry Mr Zelensky is asking for. Ukraine needs long-range missiles that can hit military targets deep in Russia and air defences to protect its infrastructure. Crucially, it also needs to make its own weapons. Today, the country’s arms industry has orders worth $7bn, only about a third of its potential capacity. Weapons firms from America and some European countries have been stepping in; others should, too. The supply of home-made weapons is more dependable and cheaper than Western-made ones. It can also be more innovative. Ukraine has around 250 drone companies, some of them world leaders—including makers of the long-range machines that may have been behind a recent hit on a huge arms dump in Russia’s Tver province.

The second way to make Ukraine’s defence credible is for Mr Biden to say Ukraine must be invited to join NATO now, even if it is divided and, possibly, without a formal armistice. Mr Biden is known to be cautious about this. Such a declaration from him, endorsed by leaders in Britain, France and Germany, would go far beyond today’s open-ended words about an “irrevocable path” to membership.

This would be controversial, because NATO’s members are expected to support each other if one of them is attacked. In opening a debate about this Article 5 guarantee, Mr Biden could make clear that it would not cover Ukrainian territory Russia occupies today, as with East Germany when West Germany joined NATO in 1955; and that Ukraine would not necessarily garrison foreign NATO troops in peacetime, as with Norway in 1949.

NATO membership entails risks. If Russia struck Ukraine again, America could face a terrible dilemma: to back Ukraine and risk war with a nuclear foe; or refuse and weaken its alliances around the world. However, abandoning Ukraine would also weaken all of America’s alliances—one reason China, Iran and North Korea are backing Russia. Mr Putin is clear that he sees the real enemy as the West. It is deluded to think that leaving Ukraine to be defeated will bring peace.

Indeed, a dysfunctional Ukraine could itself become a dangerous neighbour. Already, corruption and nationalism are on the rise. If Ukrainians feel betrayed, Mr Putin may radicalise battle-hardened militias against the West and NATO. He managed something similar in Donbas where, after 2014, he turned some Russian-speaking Ukrainians into partisans ready to go to war against their compatriots. For too long, the West has hidden behind the pretence that if Ukraine set the goals, it would decide what arms to supply. Yet Mr Zelensky cannot define victory without knowing the level of Western support. By contrast, the plan outlined above is self-reinforcing. A firmer promise of NATO membership would help Mr Zelensky redefine victory; a credible war aim would deter Russia; NATO would benefit from Ukraine’s revamped arms industry. Forging a new victory plan asks a lot of Mr Zelensky and Western leaders. But if they demur, they will usher in Ukraine’s defeat. And that would be much worse

Barclays: divestment from Elbit, finally

Starting just over one year ago, Palestine Action’s campaign saw activists undertake 54 actions against Barclays premises nation-wide. Smashing branch windows, spraying them in blood-red paint, many of these actions put Barclays sites out of operation for weeks, actions which sought to raise the costs associated with dealing with Elbit:

In the latest U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, Barclays owned 0 shares in Elbit Systems Ltd (ELST), down 16,345 since the previous filing, 15 May 2024, worth over $3,400,000.

Until then, recent filings had showed Barclays’ Elbit shareholdings at record high quantities, having steadily increased from zero ten years ago. The most recent SEC filings and NASDAQ data record an immediate total sale of Barclays’ ELST shares, abruptly sold just when Palestine Action’s campaign hit them hardest.

Initial research published in July 2022 by Campaign Against Arms Trade, War on Want, and Palestine Solidarity Campaign showed the bank held shareholdings worth over £1.5billion in companies complicit with Israeli apartheid. Palestine Action adopted the campaign in October 2023 due to the bank’s investments in Elbit Systems — the group’s primary target.

A sustained campaign by Palestine Action

Palestine Action’s 11-month long campaign against Barclays reached its peak on 10 June 2024, when 20 branches had their windows smashed, drenched in red paint, in a co-ordinated nationwide overnight action:

Four days after, Barclays CEO CS Venkatakrishnan penned in the Guardian that the bank is concerned about “overall suffering” in the region, and is very accepting of the type of “peaceful protest” seen in multiple years of campaigning up until this year. But, in a media campaign co-ordinated with former Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Venkatakrishnan complained of Palestine Action’s disruptive actions against the bank.

Inadvertently, Barclays CEO affirmed Palestine Action’s strategy, which is to make the cost of dealing in genocide, occupation, and apartheid exceed the potential to profit from it. Throughout this year-long campaign, several activists were arrested:

During questioning, police claimed that many actions caused damage between £250k to £500k in value. Most actions forced bank branches to close for weeks at a time, contributing to the financial disruption to the bank.

There are still many complicit institutions

These actions were taken as part of Palestine Action’s four-year campaign against the premises of Elbit Systems, and against the financial and industrial partners which support them like Barclays.

Elbit Systems is a major supplier of the Israeli military, its contributions including the vast majorities of Israel’s drones, along with mortuary munition and artillery rockets currently being used in Gaza.

The campaign has seen two of Elbit’s weapons factories forced to permanently shut down in Britain, and has forced a number of partners to halt relations with Elbit. Recently, activists have struck at over a dozen premises in Britain of Allianz a major shareholder in and insurer of Elbit.

A Palestine Action spokesperson said of the Barclays decision:

Through a focused strategy, direct action has achieved multiple successes and forced the hands of many complicit institutions. We will remain committed and focused to the task at hand and target any and all institutions and businesses which enable Israel’s biggest weapons firm to maintain their genocidal operations.

That means, if Barclays does reinvest into Elbit Systems in the future, Palestine Action will come knocking again.