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10-20 years, climate change will cause massive drought which will cripple the food supply.
Doesn't have to be a complete or even large collapse of society, but it'll definitely hit way way harder than what covid did. Mass starvation in every developing country, food hoarding, some governments pretending to care, some profiteering on limited supplies, the usual.
A lot of the current economic and geopolitical problems are actually solvable even in a final stance scenario. But no one can literally form clouds to replace lost irrigation or reverse climate change in less than a year. Desalination, even on max funding, would not be nearly enough to replace the water that comes from rainfall, especially huge river systems like the Indus, Nile, etc.
Water conflict