IMO Biden is still the favorite they have at least 3 key points.

1- There is no left and those to the left of him are not willing to radicalize or vote Trump to make a point. To be fair the uncommitted vote narrative may prove this wrong, but Dems likely believe this is just protest/activism rather than real conviction, you can argue both ways.

2- They can still make promises that they wont keep and these promises hold a lot more value coming from Dems by default. There are lots of economic promises and concessions he can make.

3- Trump is incompetent and wont successfully attack from the left. The only issue Trump could win is foreign policy and they're betting on libs being pro-Ukraine/pro-war again simply by saying it was the Republicans fault that Ukraine did not get enough military aid and therefore lost the war.

Trump can only attack that point from the left, tell the public about Ukrainian lives, the corruption in their government, the fact men are fleeing, the fact even Europeans are against the war etc There are lots of ways to attack the Ukraine war narrative but it is very doubtful he is competent and even ideologically capable of hitting those narratives.

Besides its not guaranteed to work anyway, the neolibs were correct to try and make the war entirely about western values. It immediately pins any opposition as being anti-western and anti-democracy and in a western world where the majority are libs by default, this is very powerful for at least 1 election cycle.

When it comes to Palestine, if Trump doesn't propose a clear cut de-escalation and hits the same right to defend itself BS then IMO sadly liberals will vote for Biden. All Biden got to do is get a 30 day cease-fire before the election honestly.